hi
please see my yesterday posting for 7+ quakes for the year 2011. It was mentioned that,-as we are close to window opening for 4th december 2011,7+ quake, I wiil not post it- just observe.
Please note todays 7.1 quake of chile, as predicted
please keep observing the dates through out the year
Regards
Amit
Very interesting that a major earthquake actually happened within this time window...
ReplyDeleteI've heard a lot about theories based on the solar system being without evidence, but perhaps there's really something to this?
I'm from Southern California (near the San Andreas fault) and I'm afraid that this window from Jan. 2 - Jan. 5 might become a disaster...
Dec 3rd 2011??? typo or is this a predidition?
ReplyDeleteRay
it actually happened on Jan 2nd UTC and local time not the 3rd. so you missed it if going with the 4th as your predicted date.
ReplyDeleteRay
oh .yes ,It is typo error.It is January 2011
ReplyDeletesorry
Amit
Anonymous
ReplyDeletewhat do you say about this prediction by seismologist and geologist ?
- There could be a major quake in Himalaya, tomorrow or 100 years hence-
How come we are so liberal for scientific predictions?
I have seen a difference,between local seismological report and USGS report, of as much as 0.4 in magnitude of quake after it has already occurred
why do we need either 0% prediction or 100% prediction?
Can we predict the exact rainfall( accuracy in mms) for a specific longitude and latitude?
Can we find exact land fall of a cyclone with decimal accuracy of longitude and latitude,well in advance,despite satellite pictures?
Let us be open about it and save some lives
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteI test a prediction as it is stated.
You can't claim credit for just anything in the general area.
Roger
Amit;
ReplyDeleteWhen you're talking about evacuating cities, accuracy is essential.
Miss the location and you may move people into danger.
Miss the date and you may move too soon or too late.
Miss the size and you may evacuate needlessly.
Miss too often and people will ignore you.
These are not trivial problems.
Roger
I think what he's trying to say is that lives can't be saved if the predictions aren't accurate to a certain extent.
ReplyDeleteRoger/Myles
ReplyDeleteRight now I am not talking of evacuating cities.Far more work is required to put in,to reach up to that state
Right now ,what I am trying to say is ,we need to change the frame of mind.Now start believing that ,Major earthquakes can be predicted and that , their could be other reasons rather more proper reasons for major earthquakes to occur .other than plate tectonics
regards
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteSaying it is easy.
What you need to do is prove it.
So far you have not done so and since your understanding of the earth is wrong it's unlikely that you will be able to prove anything.
Roger
Hi Amit,
ReplyDeleteHere are my prediction dates for 2011.
Jan 12, 16, 26
Feb 20
Mar 20, 26
Apr 3, 18
May 2, 19
Jun 2, 12
Jul 1, 9, 31
Aug 6, 30
Sep 4, 28
Oct 26
Nov 15, 25
Dec 10, 25
These are my &= Predictions +-0.5 ish.
Anonymous
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting dates. One point to be clarified ,whether ,these are random dates or are as per some rules/guidelines /theory etc?
Amit
No they are according to my ideas, but they are not as advanced as yours, there is a good element of randomness there. It can be thought of as 2 sets of predictions and let us see which one is better.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous
ReplyDeleteOK.fine.Let us wait and watch
Amit
By the way, if you need a random set why do you need it from me? lol
ReplyDeleteBy the Way I am REMI but its easier to post as anonymous...
ReplyDeleteYou can put the two sets of dates somewhere visible so as we dont search for them all the time ...thanks
ReplyDeleteREMI
Anonymous
ReplyDeleteIt could be anybody ,other than myself
Amit
Rami;
ReplyDeleteIf I am to judge these predictions I need to know the window date range and the magnitude limits.
+-5ish is not acceptable.
Roger
Roger,
ReplyDeleteNo no The window is like Amit, 3 day, 122 slots. i.e. hit, +-1 day.
The accuracy of the predicted magnitude is +-0.5 R ... I thought this was clear as I have given a calculation for this using binomal...in a previous post.
Is this OK?
REMI
I repost this here Roger so as you can see my logic. I hoped for AMIT to place this post as well as his predictions somewhere we can easily get throughout the year without having to search in old posts...a link say.... Anyway here it is...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous Anonymous said...
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Hi Amit,
Here are my prediction dates for 2011.
Jan 12, 16, 26
Feb 20
Mar 20, 26
Apr 3, 18
May 2, 19
Jun 2, 12
Jul 1, 9, 31
Aug 6, 30
Sep 4, 28
Oct 26
Nov 15, 25
Dec 10, 25
These are my 7+ Predictions +-0.5 ish.
For those predictions, here are back of the envelope calculations for randomness. As before assuming binomial distribution (debatable but hey this is the last of our problems) I give you the numbers for successes based on those distributions and for 26 trials I gave you. Assuming p=15/122 (For 7+ quakes from the average)
P( zero hits)= 3.3%
P( 1 hit)= 12.03%
P( 2 hits) = 21%
P(3 hits) = 23.6%
P(4 hits) = 19%
P(5 hits) = 11.7%
P(6 hits) = 5.7%
P(7 hits) = 2.3%
P(8 hits) = .77%
P(9 hits) = 0.1%
etc
(I will be happy to get 1 hit right ;-) ....)
Assuming in the above that we get 15 7+ quakes in the year. We will see about that, but if I get 5 hits from 15, that is 20%, which is more than the 11.7% the binomial gives as random, so there would be 'SKILL' in my predictions. Thats my thinking for now. If you agree let me know If not let us know again.....
Kind Regards,
Remi
Remi;
ReplyDeleteYou seem to be confused.
You give 24 dates but call it 26 predictions
Then you say the odds are 15/122 which may or may not be true.
Finally you speak of 7+ mags but mention +-0.5.
You are still not clear enough to evaluate.
Roger
hi
ReplyDeleteNow you can view my monthly earthquake predictions for 7+ quakes ,dirctly from the link mentioned at the righside of this blog. There are three dates mentioned in the calender.The middle one is the predicted date and + or - one day staes the window period of quake
Amit
hi
ReplyDeleteplease see the link. Data compiled by an independent researcher
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/77895.html
Amit
pl see
ReplyDeletehttp://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/77895.html
Roger, to clarify...
ReplyDeleteYou seem to be confused.
You give 24 dates but call it 26 predictions
I did the calculations for AMIT's 26 predictions Mine are less 24. The calculations for my case will be with 24 of course slightly different plenty of time to correct it.
Then you say the odds are 15/122 which may or may not be true.
Of course 15 7+ is the average ...We dont know how many will occur but since it will be about that number if this is a typical year, I did the calculations with this number. This 15 can change later when we know if you prefer.
Finally you speak of 7+ mags but mention +-0.5.
Yes the predictions are for accuracy +- 0.5 R....is that a problem?
Remi
hi
ReplyDeleteplease see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ for theory ,dates (calender) and links (earthquake forum)
Amit
Remi;
ReplyDeleteOk, I see now. I was the one who is confused!
In general, it's important to be very specific on what's predicted.
So you say 7+ but really mean 6.5+ which makes a big difference in the odds.
Roger
Roger, I am interested to see if 6.5 is ANY better for my predictions. IFF good, then retry the test for 7+ just press a button to calculate
ReplyDeleteRemi
One thing I am confused about: Do you also give a likely location for each of these dates?
ReplyDeleteAmi, Remi;
ReplyDeleteUsing the NEIC catalog from 1990 to 2010 I find that the odds on getting a 6.5+ quake in a 3 day window are 0.387 while the odds for a 7+ quake are 0.125
Roger
Hi
ReplyDeleteFor major earthquake monthly prediction (for 7+ ) please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ and see -calender-
Amit
Amit in your calendar put my predictions there too maybe in tick or different color so as we know what we compare.
ReplyDeleteI can give approximate places sometimes yes with astrocartography but it is not so precise.
ReplyDeleteRemi
Roger, I agree with your odds for 6.5 and 7.
ReplyDeleteI have the same calculations.
Remi
Amit;
ReplyDeleteOn your calendar, please plot the 7+ quakes as colored dots so a direct comparison can be made.
Personally I use a text file, one line per day showing quakes and windows.
Roger
roger
ReplyDeleteI have slightly modified calender ,showing only one day. The text says + or - one day window period. However I could not manage colored dots. I will do it later
Amit
Hi there,
ReplyDeleteWell, today Jan. 9, 2011, there seems to be an increase in activity all the way around. I am here in So Cal, and have noticed it. Also, seems Vanuatu Islands are really active. Your thoughts on this day?
Thanks!