Friday, August 29, 2014

Earthquake Prediction for September 2014

hi
 My probable major earthquake dates for the month of September 2014 are as mentioned below
1)1st September 2014...............6.6

2)8th September 2014.............6.8

3)16th September 2014..........6.3

4)23rd/24th September 2014...........6.4 ( 23rd/24th means UTC TIME 1200 FROM 23rd to UTC 1200 NOON ON 24th)

window period + or - one day
magnitude window + or -0.3 (only for reference and should not be disqualified if quake is 6+ but out of window magnitude)

Roger is requested to post random dates here. If all 30 sets of dates are not practicable Roger is requested to post only 10 sets as a sample survey
 Actually, random dates should be posted prior to my dates. From next month we will do that.
 As my first date window period was approaching with in a day, I have posted the dates earlier
Amit

at

29 comments:

  1. Anonymous2:55 PM

    Amit;

    Here are the 30 sets of predictions. The first number is the month, followed by 4 days. the window is the given day +/- 1 day.

    Roger

    09 02 06 10 14
    10 02 14 18 26
    11 02 14 18 22
    12 06 10 14 26
    01 02 06 18 22
    02 06 14 18 22

    09 02 10 14 22
    10 02 06 10 26
    11 02 06 14 18
    12 02 06 10 22
    01 06 10 18 26
    02 06 14 18 22

    09 02 14 22 26
    10 06 14 18 22
    11 06 18 22 26
    12 06 14 18 26
    01 02 06 14 26
    02 02 06 10 14

    09 06 14 18 26
    10 02 06 10 26
    11 02 14 22 26
    12 02 10 18 26
    01 02 10 14 22
    02 06 10 18 22

    09 06 10 18 26
    10 06 14 22 26
    11 10 18 22 26
    12 06 14 18 22
    01 02 06 10 26
    02 02 14 18 22

    09 02 14 18 26
    10 10 14 18 26
    11 06 14 18 22
    12 02 06 14 18
    01 02 06 14 26
    02 02 14 22 26

    09 02 06 10 26
    10 02 06 14 18
    11 10 14 18 22
    12 02 06 10 14
    01 02 06 22 26
    02 02 06 14 22

    09 02 10 18 26
    10 02 06 14 18
    11 06 14 18 22
    12 10 14 18 26
    01 06 10 14 18
    02 02 14 18 26

    09 02 06 22 26
    10 06 18 22 26
    11 02 10 14 26
    12 02 14 22 26
    01 02 10 18 26
    02 06 14 22 26

    09 06 10 22 26
    10 10 14 18 22
    11 06 18 22 26
    12 02 06 10 22
    01 02 06 14 18
    02 02 10 18 22

    09 02 06 10 18
    10 02 10 18 26
    11 06 14 18 26
    12 06 10 18 22
    01 10 18 22 26
    02 06 10 14 22

    09 10 14 22 26
    10 10 14 18 22
    11 10 18 22 26
    12 06 14 18 26
    01 02 10 14 22
    02 02 06 22 26

    09 06 14 18 22
    10 06 10 22 26
    11 02 06 22 26
    12 10 14 18 26
    01 02 10 14 26
    02 02 06 10 18

    09 06 18 22 26
    10 06 14 22 26
    11 02 10 18 22
    12 06 14 22 26
    01 02 06 22 26
    02 02 10 14 26

    09 06 10 18 26
    10 02 10 14 26
    11 06 10 18 26
    12 02 10 14 26
    01 06 10 14 26
    02 02 10 22 26

    09 06 10 22 26
    10 02 06 18 22
    11 02 10 14 18
    12 02 10 14 18
    01 02 06 22 26
    02 02 06 18 22

    09 02 14 18 22
    10 02 10 14 22
    11 10 14 18 26
    12 02 06 10 22
    01 10 14 22 26
    02 02 10 14 22

    09 06 10 14 22
    10 02 10 18 22
    11 02 14 22 26
    12 02 06 10 22
    01 06 14 18 26
    02 02 06 18 26

    09 02 14 18 22
    10 10 18 22 26
    11 06 14 22 26
    12 02 06 14 18
    01 10 14 22 26
    02 02 18 22 26

    09 02 10 22 26
    10 06 18 22 26
    11 02 06 14 22
    12 02 06 10 22
    01 02 06 14 26
    02 06 10 14 26

    09 02 14 18 26
    10 02 06 18 22
    11 10 18 22 26
    12 06 10 18 22
    01 06 10 14 26
    02 02 14 18 26

    09 02 10 18 26
    10 10 18 22 26
    11 06 10 14 26
    12 02 10 18 26
    01 06 14 22 26
    02 02 10 18 26

    09 02 10 14 22
    10 02 06 18 22
    11 02 14 18 22
    12 06 10 14 26
    01 02 06 10 26
    02 02 18 22 26

    09 02 14 18 26
    10 14 18 22 26
    11 02 06 18 26
    12 02 10 14 22
    01 06 14 18 22
    02 10 14 22 26

    09 02 10 14 26
    10 02 06 22 26
    11 10 14 18 26
    12 02 10 14 18
    01 02 06 10 22
    02 02 06 10 22

    09 06 10 22 26
    10 02 10 18 22
    11 02 10 18 26
    12 06 14 18 26
    01 02 06 10 26
    02 06 10 14 22

    09 02 10 14 26
    10 02 06 10 14
    11 02 06 18 22
    12 06 10 14 26
    01 10 14 18 22
    02 02 14 18 22

    09 06 14 22 26
    10 02 10 18 22
    11 02 14 18 22
    12 02 06 18 26
    01 10 14 18 22
    02 02 06 14 18

    09 02 10 14 26
    10 06 14 22 26
    11 06 18 22 26
    12 06 10 14 18
    01 02 10 14 22
    02 06 14 18 26

    09 06 10 18 26
    10 10 14 22 26
    11 10 14 22 26
    12 06 10 22 26
    01 02 10 18 26
    02 06 14 18 22

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous5:33 PM

    Amit;

    Just to clarify, when you say +/- one day you mean a 3 day window, right?

    So what's this noon one day to noon the next day? That's 24 hours. Did you mean that or did you mean 36 hours either way from noon?

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  3. AMIT6:33 PM

    Roger
    24 Hrs on both side of Noon.ie total 72 hrs window
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  4. AMIT6:46 PM

    Roger
    Just three sets of dates (other than mine ) from my side
    1) 4,11,19,28
    2) 5,12,20,29
    3) 6,13,21,27
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous6:58 PM

    Amit;

    24 hours either side of noon is 48 hours

    And what are these?

    Just three sets of dates (other than mine ) from my side
    1) 4,11,19,28
    2) 5,12,20,29
    3) 6,13,21,27

    I'm confused.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  6. AMIT8:25 PM

    Roger
    23/24 noon means , UTC noon on 22 to noon on 25th
    Nothing to be confused.
    It is said that,my prediction are below odds,I just wanted to check ,how the other dates score against my dates.
    If two of three are better than mine?
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  7. AMIT2:52 AM

    Roger
    I have one of two questions ,just out of curiosity
    In the list of dates for September ,it is observed that some of the dates never appeared like
    4,5,7,11,12,13,19,20,21,27,28,29
    ie 12 dates out of 30 never appeared even once,whereas date like 26 appeared total 22 times in 30 sets.
    Now the question is
    1) What are the odds of 12 dates out of 30 dates not appearing even once if we take 4 dates at at times for 30 consecutive trials
    And what are the odds of one date appearing 22 times in 30 trials?
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  8. AMIT3:08 AM


    Roger
    If you observe carefully, all the 12 dates (except one ) which are missed out in 30 random samples by your software ,are the same which I have posted ,as three sample sets.
    what a chance!!!
    Amit


    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous8:34 AM

    Amit;

    The problem is that with the requirements for 4 predictions per month separated by one day to prevent overlap there are only 35 possible combinations of dates to choose from.

    This leads to duplications.

    So does your method based on moon positions which also follow a regular pattern.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous8:51 AM

    Amit;

    Certain dates can't appear.

    To get 4 predictions per month, 3 days long with a day in between there are only 7 possible locations to choose from.

    The center dates are 2,6,10,14,18,22 and 26. 2 is the center of a window from 1 to 3. 4 is the day between thus cannot be chosen. The same for the other missing dates. There are a few days left which can't be used for lack of space.

    The combinations of 7 things taken 4 at a time are 7!/4!(7-4)! which is 35

    ReplyDelete
  11. AMIT11:06 PM

    hi
    A volcanic eruption on sunday ,31st August 2014.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2014/08/31/watch-footage-of-icelands-ongoing-volcanic-eruption/

    I am aware that, there could be objection on mentionimng Volcanic eruption on this blog.
    However,time and again I have mentioned that, my theory is based on tidal pull and momentum change ,on magma, the vocanic eruption at any location will ease the built up tidal pull inside the Erath crust and hence ,smaller quakes after volcanic eruptions are noticed
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous11:24 AM

    The heavy quakes are due over the next 4-5 days.

    11th and 13th mainly ...6.5+

    ReplyDelete
  13. AMIT9:04 AM

    hi
    6.7 quake at Guan on 17th ,as against
    16th (6.3)
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  14. AMIT5:00 AM

    6.2 quake at Argentina as predicted
    pl see the accuracy
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous7:59 PM

    Amit;

    Scores for September.

    You had 3 correct

    From my 30 random predictions

    3 had 1 right
    19 had 2 right
    7 had 3 right
    21 had 4 right

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  16. AMIT2:04 AM

    Roger
    something wrong. Your total comes to 50 instead of 30
    which are those 20 extra you have taken?
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous10:02 AM

    Amit;

    Hit two keys; last line is "1 had 4 right."

    Not sure how to score this. Chance is 12/30 based on days covered.

    There were 5 quakes so 2 hits is chance which is what the random group shows.

    Small samples are unreliable

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  18. AMIT10:41 AM

    Roger
    OK right.
    Now you can see 3 out of 4 correct predictions are 7 out of 30 ie less than 25%
    How can be this be treated as above my predictions?
    If more than two third are above my results or better than my prediction ,than only it can be said my predictions are below odds!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anonymous5:05 PM

    Amit;

    I didn't say it was.

    You win round one but it's the total score that matters.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  20. AMIT7:02 PM

    Hi
    one more quake 6.2 at Alaska in window period.
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  21. Anonymous6:33 AM

    Amit;

    Oho!

    This changes everything!

    The quake on the 26th was a miss for you but a hit for chance.

    Now the score is

    1 = 0
    2 = 9
    3 = 14
    4 = 7

    and your 3 is just chance.

    Give up?

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  22. AMIT9:45 AM

    Roger
    Sometimes I wonder ,why are you so keen on proving me wrong?
    If I get few hits ,you say, it is a small sample ,and now You want me to give up?

    By the way ,earlier you have mentioned

    3 had 1 right

    and now you say none has 1 score
    How it can happen?
    Either it has to increase or remain same (ie 3),how it can reduce with passage of two more days?

    Is there any problem in your software?
    or You want me to check physically?
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  23. Anonymous10:54 AM

    Amit;

    Because you ARE wrong.

    Those with one right got a hit and moved to two right.

    Wouldn't hurt for you to check too. I can make mistakes.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  24. AMIT3:22 AM

    Roger
    Here are the results of my September results as against your 30 random dates

    Total 6+ quakes...5
    My results.. 3 hits out of 4

    results of 30 random dates are as follows

    1 hit.........6
    2 hits........12
    3 hits........10
    4 hits.......2
    ...............
    total........30

    Now 10 +2 = 14 are better than my results out of 30. ie not even 50%
    If my predictions are below odds ,at least 75% or more should be better than my dates
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  25. Anonymous6:38 PM

    Amit;

    I question your count.

    Which 6 had only one hit?

    According to my count, none did.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  26. AMIT12:09 AM

    Roger
    The quakes were on 6,10,17, 24 and 25 th of September.

    Yes ,the single hit numbers are five and not six (thus two hits numbers are 13 instead of 12)
    the five are (serial number from top of your list)

    2nd....2,10,14,22.....(hit 10)
    3rd...2,14,22,26......(hit 26)
    17th...2,14,18,22.....(hit 18)
    19th..2,14,18,22......(hit.18)
    23rd...2,10,14,22.....(hit 10)

    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  27. Anonymous6:41 AM

    Amit;

    Those are all hits for 2 as well as 10.

    Quake on Sep 3.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  28. AMIT7:44 AM

    Roger
    There is no hit for date 2.
    The quake on 4th was mag 6 .
    1)Thus date 2nd is not hit
    2) we count 6+ quakes
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  29. Anonymous5:23 PM

    Amit;

    Looking over September again, you predicted 1, 8, 16 and 23

    Quakes were 4, 6, 10, 17, 24 and 25 so you only got 2 hits which is what my random hits got the most.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete