hi
After much home work ( more than six years),following hypothesis is published for predicting locations of major earthquakes
One more hypothesis is can be given is like this
If the quake is more than 6 ,the place ie location could be depending on
1) Moon's location (+ or - 20 degrees)
2) Moon's location + 180 degrees (+ or -20 degrees)
However this depends on the stronger trigger at that time
Generally it is Sun or Moon
In some cases it could be Jupiter, Venus or Mars ,if they are at perigee and at Maximum declination on that day
To days-29th December 2014(6.1 -Philippines quake) corresponds to Moon
This hypothesis, is under trial and I have seen it working in more than 75% major quakes
Amit
After much home work ( more than six years),following hypothesis is published for predicting locations of major earthquakes
One more hypothesis is can be given is like this
If the quake is more than 6 ,the place ie location could be depending on
1) Moon's location (+ or - 20 degrees)
2) Moon's location + 180 degrees (+ or -20 degrees)
However this depends on the stronger trigger at that time
Generally it is Sun or Moon
In some cases it could be Jupiter, Venus or Mars ,if they are at perigee and at Maximum declination on that day
To days-29th December 2014(6.1 -Philippines quake) corresponds to Moon
This hypothesis, is under trial and I have seen it working in more than 75% major quakes
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteYou're wrong.
You're not 75% correct.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteHold it.I am talking about location hypothesis.This has never been disvlosed earlier.How did you check it ?
Amit
Sorry to butt in, but Rogers vocabulary is limited to NO, NOT WRONG and NEVER, NEGATIVE etc. Dont try to change this, its too late.
ReplyDeleteAmit;
ReplyDeleteYou're right, I haven't checked location but if you can't get date right what good is location?
Anonymous;
All it takes is correct predictions.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteyou are making haste
I am talking of checking actual 7+ quakes its time and locations.Forget my predictoon
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteWhich predictions?
You don't normally give locations.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteWhat I am talking is checking my hypothesis against actual occurred 7+ quakes , for location check
This has nothing to do with my predictions
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteYour hypothesis is too difficult to check.
You have too many factors which may or may not apply in a given case.
If I check all of them and score a hit if any one of them applies the odds may be 75% or more for chance.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteI do not think so. I am doing it manually also
First only to check 7+ quakes with Moon and Sun
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteHow do you relate sun and moon RA position to earth's lat/lon?
Haven't we done all this before?
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteNo. We have never done it before
Amit
Roger
ReplyDeleteno we have never checked it earlie
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteI looked at all 7+ quakes in the NEIC catalog, finding 645 of them.
Then I determined the subsolar and sublunar locations for each quake and the distance between them and the quake longitude.
If the distance was <= 20 or >= 160 a hit was counted.
There were 142 hits for sun and 123 for the moon, in each case less than the expected number based on the range of degrees covered by the hit area.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteI look it this way
1)Totl hits are 265 out of 645 ie 42%
2) Total longitude covered by prediction are
2( 20+20)= 80 degrees
ie 80÷360= 22%
So practically hits are twice the longitude covered
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteNo, that's wrong.
The hits are counted individually. The odds on either one hitting are 22% and that's about what happens.
If you want to combine them you'd get the odds on both hitting which is 0.22*0.22=.0484 and 29 actually happened, a bit better than chance.
It's again, just chance.
Roger
Amit;
ReplyDeleteAnother way to look at it is that the odds are 80/360 for either sun or moon but you have two shots at it (sun and moon) so it's 160/360
or 44% that one will be a hit.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteNo. 80 includes Sun and Moon both
(40+40). You can not make it twice
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteSun and moon each have 80 degrees covered (0 +/- 20, 180 +/- 20).
That's 160/360 or 44.4%
If you want to consider only 0 degree hits we can do that.
Roger