There were 215 main quakes (7.5+) and 413 aftershocks in the 10x10 degree square centered on each main quake 9 8 2 3 0 2 1 2 1 3 4 2 2 0 0 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 0 2 3 2 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 1 2 0 1 1 1 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 0 1 1 1 0 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 2 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 2 1 2 0 3 1 0 1 3 1 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 3 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 2 5 5 3 0 3 0 1 0 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 4 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 3 4 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 0 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 0 1 0 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 0 0 1 2 3 2 1 0 2 2 2 3 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 1
For viewers ,let me explain
The evaluation of my -cycle quake theory- for aftershocks ,done by Roger Hunter is posted above
A) My theory says that, after a major quake of 7.5+ , at any location ,the chances of two (first and second highest) aftershocks are highest
1) after 12 Hrs
2)after 24 Hrs
3) on 7th or 8th day
4) on 14/15th and some times even on 16th day
B) Above table shows output of evaluation done by my friend Roger Hunter
Rows (horizontal lines relates to days-first raw for first day and 16th raw for 16th day
columns(vertical lines) pertains to hours of that particular day
numbers mentioned shows the numbers of quakes highest ( first or second) on that Hour of that day
now look
Leaving first hour of quake we have
on 11th hour.....4 quakes
12th Hrs......2
13th Hrs......224th Hrs...........3 quakes
25th Hrs .........3 quakes
Also watch 7th day ,24th Hrs and 8th day first hr score ,which is 5 aftershocks in an Hr
Roger,what more proof you need.
watch 11/12th ,24th and 25th hour scores ,much higher than any one /two hrs scores
on first day we have......54 quakes
second day we have.....28 quakes
on 7th day we have.......28 quakes
and 8th day we have....32 quakes
on 15 h day we have ......20 quakes
16th day we have...... 18 quakes
watch the quakes
except on first day ,the 7th and 8th day scores much more
Amit
even 14th day we have 30 quakes
ReplyDeleteIn fact, we need to consider the same aspect of Moon ( which either Sun, Jupiter ,or Venus ) to occur again after 7 th or 15th day.
If it is with sun ,clear days of 7 and half and 15 days. But if with others ,it mat very from 7/8th to 14/15 or even 16th
So ,while predicting each case has to be dealt separately
Amit
On the same line ,I expect a 6+ aftershock eighter on 3rd or 4th May 2015 at Nepal
ReplyDeleteAmit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteYou said;
> Leaving first hour of quake we have
> on 11th hour.....4 quakes
> 12th Hrs......2
> 13th Hrs......2
but your prediction was more after the 12th hour.
> 24th Hrs...........3 quakes
> 25th Hrs ..........3 quakes
But so what? 3 quake hours are all over the place.
> Also watch 7th day ,24th Hrs and 8th day first hr score ,which is 5 aftershocks in an Hr
Yes and those are the highest 2 hours of all, excluding the first two.
> Roger,what more proof you need.
Quite a bit more actually. These differences are not large enough to be convincing.
> watch 11/12th ,24th and 25th hour scores ,much higher than any one /two hrs scores
True in this case but what would cause it?
> on first day we have......54 quakes
Yes.
> second day we have.....28 quakes
I count 24 quakes.
> on 7th day we have.......28 quakes
Yes.
> and 8th day we have....32 quakes
Yes but on the 9th day we have 38 quakes.
> on 15 h day we have ......20 quakes
Yes.
> 16th day we have...... 18 quakes
Yes.
None of this proves anything. These numbers are not showing a useful pattern.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteTime and again I have mentioned this theory.Now I will give logic and reason
As ther my theory ,major quakes are trigered by Moon ,provided other indicators are present
Now after 12 hrs ,the same location moves 180 degrees due to Earths axial rotation.Henceagain the same force/pull
Simlarlt after 24 hrs it comes at same location
(actualy 24 hrs + 40 minutes)
After 7 /8th day Moon moves 90 degrees and again creates pull
After 14/15 th or even 16th day Moon moves 180 degrees and again aspects the indicators.
After 15 days the original indicrors (like Juoiter closer,venus closer or at Max declinations ) fades away. And quakes stops
Amit
Roger
ReplyDeleteMain issue is to see when again Moon aspects the same indicator.
If is fast moving (venus) ,it will take more time for Moon to create aspects
If is slow moving (JUpiter)it may take less time for Moon to catch up.
If it is sun ,the time is fix 7/8th ,14/15th day
Thus it very from 7/8 th or 9th . ...14/15 or 16th.
Each case has to be checked as per main indicators
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteSeems to me we've been thru all this before.
I can compute all of those things and more and they don't correlate with quakes.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteBut you see striking results here itself
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteNo I don't. I see an occasional good hit by chance but never more often than chance would allow.
If you can tell me exactly what you use as indicators I can test them against quakes and settle this once and for all.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDelete1) simple chsnce is
16 days × 24 hrs = 384
Hence 413 quakes÷ 384 hrs= just above 1
Thus all those quakes more than 2 per hrs are well above odds
what do you say for 4 and 5 quakes
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteInteresting problem and one I'm not equipped to solve so I've submitted it to a higher authority.
Aftershocks are not uniformly distributed so the usual tests don't apply.
I'll let you know what I find out.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteI will wait for your comments/reply
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteMy higher authority didn't have anything off the top of his head but I do have a possible explanation.
The only thing that really concerns me is the pair of 5 count hours at the end of day 7. I'm going to search for the quakes responsible for that.
I'll keep you posted.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteThanks
Amit