Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Earthquake Prediction/forecast for Feb 2016

hi
 Sorry for posting the date late
 Probable dates for 6+ quakes in Feb are

1) 6th /7th Feb 2016--------------6.5

2)11th--------------------------- 7.1

3)23rd--------------------------- 6.8

Date 6/7th means 12 Noon of 6th to 12 Noon of 7th UTC

out f three dates the 11th is most potent, Next potent is 233rd/24th

watch out

 Amit Dave

 Addition-( this addition done  on 5th  Feb at 16.15 UTC )
 To be more specific , Here are the time in UTC for quake to occur

1) 8th Feb-------11.45 UTC
2) 10th ----------20.00 UTC
3)11th------------03.00 UTC
4)22nd-----------18.00 UTC
5)24th------------04.00 UTC

Amit Dave

Yet another addition ( at 17.00 UTC  on 5th Feb 2016)


probable longitudes for quakes are given below

1)  not specified
2) 10th -----92 degree s East and/or  88 degree west
3)11th ------170 degrees East and /or 10 degrees west
4)22nd--------92 degrees East and /or 88 degrees west
5) 24th -------42 degrees  west and /or 138 degrees East

regards
Amit Dave








40 comments:

  1. Anonymous4:41 PM

    Amit;

    How many times must you fail before you realize your system doesn't work?

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  2. Roger
    Thanks
    Thre are two ways
    1) Either I score less than 50%, in 101 consecitive months prediction
    Or
    2) 101 of veiwers write here, that this is all nonsense
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous11:35 AM

    Amit;

    That's 8.4 years!

    Chance doesn't work that way. You'll score above some months, below other months.

    It's the average that matters.

    We've done several years already with negative scores.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous1:04 PM

    Amit;

    2 quakes this month; 1st and 5th

    the 5th was a hit so you're 1/2 quakes 1/4 predictions

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous1:06 PM

    Amit;

    Correction; 1/3 predictions.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  6. Roger
    Pl watch the first accuracy . 6.4 quakw at Taiwan.
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  7. Roger
    I am not not doing full time research . I have my duties and hosehold chores to be done first. During night houts ,I do this work. Hence ,sometimes not able to post before 1sy of month .Like in feb. This can not be trested as miss
    Unfortunately,no govt wants to fund research which works against plate tectonics
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous6:42 PM

    Amit;

    Thought you were retired?

    Anyway, list all your indicators and I will compute the whole year for you

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  9. Roger
    Yes. I have retired last year. But I am working as full time technical consultant for a firm and two other Non Govt Organisations ,one in institute working for "ethical Governance"and another in the field of Mental Health(specialy
    counciling clinical Depression patients
    My soon ,who has graduated recently is developing a program for me.But it is a simple excel version.After almost alternate day discussiins ,he has not yet been able to incorporate all intricay of my six odd predictors.I will request to send excel version to you,if you wish
    Regards
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  10. Roger
    Sorry. I am posting this while in move( a heavily crowded Mubai Suburban train)Hence some typo errors
    Regards
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anonymous6:13 AM

    Amit;

    I'm impressed! You are a man of many talents.

    All I need is a list of indicators. I can compute all planetary positions.

    If you have tricky rules of combinations that may complicate things.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous7:33 PM

    Ethics ends where there is governance. Freedom giveth birth to ethics. Only Libras mind structure is called a 'Brain'.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dear Anonymous
    I could not understand what you want to say. please elaborate
    Amit Dave

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi
    one more quake 6.3 at PNG on 8th .yet another hit in single window of 6/7th
    Are these quakes mearly by chance?
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous9:23 AM

    Amit;

    So far, 1/3 quakes correct, 1/3 predictions correct.

    PNG was not a hit. The window closed at 12:00, the quake was at 16:19

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  16. Roger
    Ok.yes sorry
    But I am glad,my predictions are observed in terms of hrs. Where as seismplogist (sometimes) predict quakes those are measured in centuries,may five to ten hundread years
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  17. Roger
    This can be viewed like this also
    the quake was on 8th at 16.19 Hrs, where as the exact time stated earlier was on 8th
    at 11.45 UTC.SO It is just four and half hrs of predicted time
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anonymous5:58 AM

    Amit;

    It's still a miss.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi
    watch one more hit.6.3 on 10th at 0.33 hrs UTC.It is well 33 minutes inside time window
    keep counting
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  20. Anonymous7:35 PM

    Amit;

    Yes, that's a hit

    2/4 quakes 2/3 predictions

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  21. Hi
    pl note prediction of 10th at 20 hrs UTC.It is note worthy that the is nearky 24 in advance of time predicted.
    I suspect this being 24 hrs advance cycle quake. And that one more is to come exactly after 24 hrs (place note known)
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi
    In fact, place can be predicted (with lesser accuracy ). However, there is restriction by law, that all three aspects of quake prediction ( ie date/time, magnitude and location ) can not be published ( it amounts to spreading rumors). In fact , I keep the prediction records in my personal diary ,for some of the major quakes
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  23. Anonymous6:58 AM

    Amit;

    Can you tell me the locations by email?

    (In confidence of course)

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  24. Roger
    as long as I am not pim pointing location ( by lat and Long both) ,there should not be problem
    1) 10th ....20 UTC.....75 DEGREE WEST.AND/OR..105 DEGREE East

    2)11th.. 03.00 UTC.......170 Degree East and/or ..10 degree west

    3)22nd...18 UTC...... 92 degree East and/or....88 degree west

    4) 24th ...4 UTC.......70 degree west and/or...110 degree East


    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  25. Location window is + or -10 degrees pl

    ReplyDelete
  26. pl note that, the longitudes are exactly 180 degrees apart. ie because as per tidal force theory ,the pull is active on both side of the globe, either one or both are at risk.
    However, if major volcanic eruption occurs on the date ,the builtup pressure is reduced and quake could be of lesser magnitude

    Anit

    ReplyDelete
  27. Anonymous9:26 AM

    Amit;

    Then the 10th quake is a miss on time and location.

    It was 0UTC 71W

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  28. Anonymous10:16 AM

    Amit

    not according to this

    https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/quakes/152c8babc1f7ba40

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  29. hi
    one more quake in the window period . A 6.5 quake at Indonesia to day ie 12th at 10.02
    UTC

    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  30. Anonymous7:45 AM

    Amit;

    That's a date hit.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  31. Roger
    No it was not. It is only in window period
    Amit DAVE

    ReplyDelete
  32. Hi
    Though ,5..8 is not major NZ and chirstchurch is very sensitive to quake.
    11th location was 170 degree East ie NZ
    anyway no claim pl.5.8 quake is not counted in my calculations
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  33. Anonymous1:08 PM

    Amit;

    Quake today (15th) at 19:28

    Miss.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  34. http://www.livemint.com/Politics/zdU1QlGxGv63D0iyBLQVDN/What-the-planets-foretell-Earthquakes.html

    pl check the link for corelation between earthquakes and planetary positions
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  35. Anonymous8:21 PM

    Amit;

    Your linked predictions are no better than yours.

    They made one prediction in Jan, 4 days long and captured 2 of the 13 quakes.

    So far in Feb they got 1 of the 6 quakes with a 2 day window.

    Just chance.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  36. pi
    note couple of quakes at NZ today also at Japan and Afghanistan
    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  37. Anonymous6:47 PM

    Amit;

    Feb score; 2/11 quakes in 1/4 predictions

    Below chance.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete
  38. Roger
    1) first.. total 6+ quakes are 7 in the month of February ( including one of 6.0) , and not 11 as you have mentioned...pl check

    2) As per original prediction ,three dates were predicted and out of three ,two are hit in window period

    so ,what you call 2/11 is actually 3/7
    and what you call 1/4 is actually 2/3

    Amit

    ReplyDelete
  39. Anonymous5:46 AM

    Amit;

    I beg your pardon; you are partly correct.

    It's 2/7 quakes. The quake on the 8th is outside your window

    2/3 predictions correct.

    Still chance.

    Roger

    ReplyDelete