Hi
The probable dates for 6+ quakes for the month of January 2019 are as mentioned below
1)3rd Jan 2019.............6.5
2)6th Jan 2019.............7.2
3)21st Jan 2019...........7.3
4)31st Jan 2019...........6.4
Time window period is +or - one day
The dates 5th and 21st are strongest and may cross 7
Amit
The probable dates for 6+ quakes for the month of January 2019 are as mentioned below
1)3rd Jan 2019.............6.5
2)6th Jan 2019.............7.2
3)21st Jan 2019...........7.3
4)31st Jan 2019...........6.4
Time window period is +or - one day
The dates 5th and 21st are strongest and may cross 7
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteHow about this; make 10 predictions per month.
You'll be almost 100% correct.
Roger
Hi
ReplyDelete6.8 quake on 5th Jan 2019 at Brazil against 7.2 predicted. A hit major prediPredi
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDelete2 quakes today actually, one in Brazil, the other in the Aleutians. You shouldn't predict mag without a range if you want credit for a hit. I've been ignoring it but that could change.
I'm using my year lists to check your predictions from 2010 to 2017 but I want to revise the program to add your windows. Doing it by hand is so tedious!
I'm using a simplified calculation whereby odds are window days divided by days in the year. It's reasonable. If you cover 25% of the days you should get 25% of the quakes.
You seldom do that well which is why I say "Just chance".
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for your efforts.
I have already checked randomly ( without any software) that ..
I usually cover 25 to 30 % of windows in month and 60 to 80 % quakes occur in my window. You can cross check it
I do give magnomagn window , + or - 0.3
I am sure ,ifif you can include magnitude windows with time windows ,I am much much better than odds
Amit
Roger
ReplyDeleteOne more
6.6 quake at zindonesis on ,6th ,a date hit Prediction
Amit
Roger
ReplyDeleteOne more quake
6.6 at Indonesia on 6,the, a date hit Prediction
If you consider ,% of window period and total month period ratio to that of quakes occured in my windows to total quakes ,I am far far above the odds
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteMag. is a problem when there is more than one quake in a window.
Roger
Wow, superb blog layout! How long have you been blogging
ReplyDeletefor? you make blogging look easy. The overall look of your
site is great, as well as the content!
Hi
ReplyDeleteWatch out
6.7 quake at Chile today ie 20th January 2019 ,as against 21st predicted on 21st
Is this just coincidence?
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteI need a list of aspects and distances that you use in making your predictions.
With it, I'll be able to duplicate those conditions for the list of quakes I sent, which will tell us how often they apply.
I can't find it on your website.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteOk
Roger
ReplyDeleteSearch my blog with
"How to predict major earthquake?..
an invitation to software developers"
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteExcellent! Just what I needed.
Roger
Amit;
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry, my program doesn't give distances except for sun and moon, so I can't duplicate your predictions.
How do you get them?
Roger
Hi
ReplyDeleteOne more hit .6.7 at Prince Edward region on 22nd.
Three major 6.5+ quakes I .a window
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteOk, what about the 5 you missed?
I found a source for distance so I'll be able to continue my testing but it only goes back to 2011 and it'll take a long time. Lots of downloading and editing to do.
Roger
Amit;
ReplyDeleteI now have a file containing RA, Dec, and distance from earth for Sun, Moon, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn for every day from 2014 to 2018.
With this I can compute geocentric angles.
Next I'll add quake days for mag 6+ quakes
What all would you consider important to your predictions?
Roger
Roger
Amit;
ReplyDeleteI've added 6+ quakes and your prediction days to the array.
Results show that 660 of the 1826 days were predicted days, giving 0.361 chance of success.
There were 547 quake days and 246 hit days.
These results can be obtained by chance about 28% of the time which is not good enough to prove ability.
That being the case I see no reason to look further into your planetary speculations.
Roger
Roger
DeleteTotal 547 quake days in total 1826 days.Thus chace of quake is
547÷1826=0.299
Where as my hits were 246 days in 660 days I have predicted.
So my results are
246÷660=0.377
Which is much better than odds (0.299)
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteWould you like a copy of my results so far?
Every day for 5 years, 23 columns per day. Makes for a pretty big file.
Roger
PS: available to anyone by request.
Yes pl
DeleteNeed a copy
It is in point of fact a great and useful piece of information. I'm glad that
ReplyDeleteyou shared this useful information with us. Please stay us up to
date like this. Thanks for sharing.
Amit;
ReplyDeleteYes, you were a bit better than chance but not enough better to depend on.
You can't evacuate a city when there's a 28% chance it's a false alarm.
That's why my evaluation program requires a 99% significance level.
Roger
Roger
DeleteForget earthquake prediction ,science can not predict weather and rain with 99% accuracy of place and inches of rain ,with all those super computers and satellite images
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteSomething you might try; examine the factors you use in making your predictions to see if any of them could be eliminated to reduce the number of false predictions.
I had intended to do this with my program but things like "closest" can be difficult to define to a machine.
Roger
Hi
ReplyDeleteHere it is.6.6 quake at Maxico today ie 1st Feb 2019, in window period.
Is this a fluke or by chance?
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteSuch accuracy is not important for weather forecast.
It is vital for earthquakes that may destroy cities.
Where are your Feb windows?
Roger
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ReplyDeleteThis blog was... how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I've found
ReplyDeletesomething which helped me. Many thanks!
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