Watch today's (19th April)quake of 6.3 at PNG at 09.06 UTC
watch the accuracy of prediction.
Date ..predicted ..20th April 2023 with + or - 1 day window period
Magnitude ..predicted .6.9..with + or - 0.3 . Though predicted magnitude
seems to be on higher side ,it is a hit prediction for 6+ quake.
And...and..wait.. I believe there is yet another 6+ quake is to come by 21st (UTC)
Roger Hunter ,please watch epicenter location hypothesis
At epicenter both Sun and Moon are setting , with 30 minutes margin
Can anyone, Seismological Society of America,Seismology Research Centre spell out what all is required , which can be treated as major Earthquake Prediction ?
watch
https://lnkd.in/dzRtvB6w
An accurate prediction must include date, location and magnitude.
ReplyDeleteEach item may have ranges, the smaller the better.
Roger
Amit;
ReplyDeleteThis may be outdated, not sure, but I tested your long range predictions for major quakes
with the following results;
2502 windows
825 hits
.330 odds
1195 quakes
220 predictions
79 hits
72.5 hits expected
Not significantly better than chance.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteI could not get it
Say first para of your evaluation
2502 windows....Are these my predicted windows?
If yes ,the predicted dates would be 2502÷3=834( with + or - 1 day window)
And 825 hits out of those 834?
Pl clarify.
In second para 1195 are actual quakes (6+)
How many years prediction data is this?
And 220 my predictions?
Normally 'I predict 4 to 5 dates per month .So 50 per year.
Thus 220 my predictions may be hardly for 4 years.
I have been doing this since last more than 20 years. Did you cover all those?
Regards
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteYou use a 3 day window so there are 2502 possible windows in the years you have studied.
The quakes are for the same years, of the magnitude you specified.
My program is still giving me fits so I can't be more explicit.
The odds are determined by dividing quakes by windows, so if you have 100 quakes in 100 windows, chances are picking one at random will be a hit.
Roger
Roger
ReplyDeleteCan it be made a simple statement like...
...In last ........number of years 'you have predicted ............dates ie ............number of days with + or - 1 day window period and that there are .........numbers of hits in window period ie ......percentage of hits
Regards
Amit
Amit;
ReplyDeleteYes, that's possible and may be the solution to my problem, which involves printing hundreds of daily information.
Stand bye!
Roger
Amit;
ReplyDeleteExcuse the delay. Turns out I've been racking my brain over the wrong program, one which doesn't even check quakes.
I may just have to give up and accept the fact that creeping senility has caught up with me.
But not just yet! I'll find the right program and fight on!
Roger
Roger
DeleteYou are a true warrior
Regards
Amit