tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post1041707480311344865..comments2024-03-28T10:05:49.688-07:00Comments on earthquake prediction: Earthquake prediction for April 2014AMIThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-50251001588693414392014-04-23T21:12:04.684-07:002014-04-23T21:12:04.684-07:00Amit;
I've tested every idea you've come ...Amit;<br /><br />I've tested every idea you've come up with and they all failed.<br /><br />See my random predictions on Earthwaves. I CAN do better than you by chance.<br /><br />What will it take to convince you?<br /><br />Propose a definitive test and I'll run it.<br />125 6564346<br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-55297053664009122552014-04-23T21:07:31.135-07:002014-04-23T21:07:31.135-07:00Amit;
I've tested every theory you've com...Amit;<br /><br />I've tested every theory you've come up with and none of them work.<br /><br />What does it take to convince you?<br /><br />See my random predictions test on Earthwaves. I CAN do better than you by chance.<br /><br />Tell me what test will convince you and I'll run it.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-16358195287213573132014-04-23T20:42:24.753-07:002014-04-23T20:42:24.753-07:00Hi
6.7 quake at Canada.watch the accuracy of both ...Hi<br />6.7 quake at Canada.watch the accuracy of both time and magnitude window<br />How many hits for6.5 predictions ?<br />Are these hits just by chance?<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-25692160805006547992014-04-22T17:37:39.970-07:002014-04-22T17:37:39.970-07:00Amit;
Probability is indeed a problem area but th...Amit;<br /><br />Probability is indeed a problem area but the method I use was devised by two PhD researchers.<br /><br />Clusters are a problem. Consider a year with 365 mag 6+ quakes. If you say 365/365=1.000 you'd say every day is as likely as another but due to clustering all those quakes might be clustered into 30 days so the real odds are 30/365=0.084<br /><br />The method I use reduces that considerably by counting the number of prediction length windows which have quakes in them.<br /><br />I can give credit for multiple quakes in a window IF you predict how many will happen.<br /><br />Why let people decide? They have no idea for the most part and truth is not decided by a vote anyway.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-20943102066553489392014-04-21T23:49:57.320-07:002014-04-21T23:49:57.320-07:00Roger
I am of the opinion that, the method of cal...Roger<br /> I am of the opinion that, the method of calculation of odds have some inherent flaws like considering clusters in averaging ,spreading out high seismic week in averaging ,not considering double quakes of prediction etc<br /> Let people decide, as to whether , i am below or above average.<br /> OR <br />let science /seismology predict better than what I do<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-86187321945196309772014-04-20T17:17:11.702-07:002014-04-20T17:17:11.702-07:00Amit;
1) You predicted well in advance but when s...Amit;<br /><br />1) You predicted well in advance but when seismicity increases, so does odds on a hit.<br /><br />2) Yes they do but your hits are just due to chance. Otherwise you'd do better than chance (and you don't)<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-43486739020640267842014-04-20T09:17:43.439-07:002014-04-20T09:17:43.439-07:00Roger
Two things to be noted here
1) When I predi...Roger<br /> Two things to be noted here<br />1) When I predict well in advance , you can not say anything about high seismicity period<br /><br />2) I am unaware of any terminology about possible and impossible prediction.<br /> To the best of my knowledge , plate tectonics, Seismology and science (including USGS) strongly believe that ,all quakes are unpredictable<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-25070158652362061742014-04-20T08:02:26.104-07:002014-04-20T08:02:26.104-07:00Amit;
So far it's 2 hits out of 3 predictions...Amit;<br /><br />So far it's 2 hits out of 3 predictions but the odds on a hit during this high seismicity period are also very high.<br /><br />The penalty for missing cancels out the credit for hitting so your results are not significant.<br /><br />The way to pass the test is to get hits that are improbable<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-63886564240106441382014-04-20T06:03:32.044-07:002014-04-20T06:03:32.044-07:00Roger
one more quake of 7.5 at PNG in window perio...Roger<br />one more quake of 7.5 at PNG in window period.<br />How many times one would say,these are flukes.<br /> Moreover ,it was also predicted that April 11th to 20 th will witness major quakes<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-43830976352502566282014-04-19T10:04:14.959-07:002014-04-19T10:04:14.959-07:00Amit;
Yes, that's a hit.
Pretty hard to miss...Amit;<br /><br />Yes, that's a hit.<br /><br />Pretty hard to miss lately with mag 6+ quakes every day almost.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-37646767154141782202014-04-19T05:32:54.665-07:002014-04-19T05:32:54.665-07:00Roger
pl note one more quake today, ie on 19th Ap...Roger<br /> pl note one more quake today, ie on 19th April(6.6 at PNG)<br /> Roger, now you should be satisfied as far as time and magnitude windows are concerned<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-66047332852030158622014-04-18T17:10:06.384-07:002014-04-18T17:10:06.384-07:00Amit;
That's not a hit. Window opens 19th
Ro...Amit;<br /><br />That's not a hit. Window opens 19th<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-75711970781536624292014-04-18T09:43:57.552-07:002014-04-18T09:43:57.552-07:00hi
pl note 7.2 quake at Mexico to day (18th ). Pr...hi<br /> pl note 7.2 quake at Mexico to day (18th ). Predicted date is 20th (+ or - one day)<br />Many 6.5+ quakes in this month as predicted<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-33373445140072098962014-04-16T17:22:09.488-07:002014-04-16T17:22:09.488-07:00Amit;
Notice that your #2 hit was an aftershock. ...Amit;<br /><br />Notice that your #2 hit was an aftershock. <br /><br />I give you credit because your prediction was well in advance.<br /><br />Odd thet you would miss the 8.2 earlier.<br /><br />Roger<br />Roger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-6160387733233409752014-04-16T17:16:51.282-07:002014-04-16T17:16:51.282-07:00Amit;
That's correct. I count correct predict...Amit;<br /><br />That's correct. I count correct predictions, not number of quakes captured.<br /><br />Aftershocks are illegal if the main shock happened before the prediction was made.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-80532268283487324982014-04-16T09:32:06.084-07:002014-04-16T09:32:06.084-07:00Roger
Most of them are at same location (near -70...Roger<br /> Most of them are at same location (near -70 degree). As per your own statements ,these are aftershocks and need not be counted more than once<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-58638988487161856962014-04-15T13:21:59.204-07:002014-04-15T13:21:59.204-07:00Amit;
Here are your April predictions and quakes....Amit;<br /><br />Here are your April predictions and quakes.<br /><br />Lots of misses there.<br /><br />Roger<br /><br /><br /> time, latitude,longitude, depth, mag<br />2014-04-01 T23:46:46.520Z,-19.6416, -70.8171, 20.13, 8.2 <br />2014-04-01 T23:57:57.390Z,-19.8975, -70.9245, 20.18, 6.9 <br />2014-04-02 T16:13:27.380Z, 7.9043, -82.345, 31.56, 6 <br />2014-04-03 T01:58:31.440Z,-20.268, -70.5558, 22.83, 6.5 <br />2014-04-03 T02:43:14.770Z,-20.518, -70.4979, 31.09, 7.7 <br />2014-04-03 T05:26:16.070Z,-20.8068, -70.5486, 24.34, 6.2 <br />2014-04-04 T01:37:51.130Z,-20.6214, -70.7393, 20, 6.1 <br />2014-04-04 T11:40:32.870Z,-10.5303, 161.6719, 63.77, 6 <br />2014-04-05 <--<br />2014-04-06 | #1<br />2014-04-07 <--<br />2014-04-08 <br />2014-04-09 <br />2014-04-10 T23:27:46.250Z, 12.5138, -86.3789, 13, 6.1 <br />2014-04-11 T00:01:44.150Z,-20.7477, -70.7242, 17.48, 6 <br />2014-04-11 T07:07:21.980Z, -6.6249, 155.0639, 50, 7.1 <br />2014-04-11 T08:16:48.410Z, -6.8554, 155.0165, 39.42, 6.5 <br />2014-04-11 T20:29:15.080Z, 11.7098, -85.9631,138.58, 6.6 <br />2014-04-12 T05:24:25.560Z, -7.1163, 155.2356, 35, 6.1 <br />2014-04-12 T20:14:39.620Z,-11.3149, 162.2114, 29.31, 7.6 <br />2014-04-13 T12:36:18.710Z,-11.451, 162.0692, 35, 7.4 <--<br />2014-04-14 | #2<br />2014-04-15 T03:57:02.150Z,-53.5271, 8.7041, 11.74, 6.9 <--<br /><br /><br />1) April 6 Miss<br /> <br />2) April 14 Hit<br /> <br />--------------------------------<br />Not yet<br /><br />3) April 20 <br /> <br />4) April 23<br /> <br /><br />Roger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-57842085823631495672014-04-15T06:38:48.231-07:002014-04-15T06:38:48.231-07:00Amit;
here are the mag 6+ quakes so far this mont...Amit;<br /><br />here are the mag 6+ quakes so far this month.<br /><br />time,latitude,longitude,depth,mag<br />2014-04-01T23:46:46.520Z,-19.6416,-70.8171,20.13,8.2<br />2014-04-01T23:57:57.390Z,-19.8975,-70.9245,20.18,6.9<br />2014-04-02T16:13:27.380Z,7.9043,-82.345,31.56,6<br />2014-04-03T01:58:31.440Z,-20.268,-70.5558,22.83,6.5<br />2014-04-03T02:43:14.770Z,-20.518,-70.4979,31.09,7.7<br />2014-04-03T05:26:16.070Z,-20.8068,-70.5486,24.34,6.2<br />2014-04-04T01:37:51.130Z,-20.6214,-70.7393,20,6.1<br />2014-04-04T11:40:32.870Z,-10.5303,161.6719,63.77,6<br />2014-04-10T23:27:46.250Z,12.5138,-86.3789,13,6.1<br />2014-04-11T00:01:44.150Z,-20.7477,-70.7242,17.48,6<br />2014-04-11T07:07:21.980Z,-6.6249,155.0639,50,7.1<br />2014-04-11T08:16:48.410Z,-6.8554,155.0165,39.42,6.5<br />2014-04-11T20:29:15.080Z,11.7098,-85.9631,138.58,6.6<br />2014-04-12T05:24:25.560Z,-7.1163,155.2356,35,6.1<br />2014-04-12T20:14:39.620Z,-11.3149,162.2114,29.31,7.6<br />2014-04-13T12:36:18.710Z,-11.451,162.0692,35,7.4<br />2014-04-15T03:57:02.150Z,-53.5271,8.7041,11.74,6.9<br /><br />Is it any wonder that some of your windows captured some of the quakes?<br /><br />What about the ones you missed?<br /><br />Roger<br />Roger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-3619639426548427682014-04-14T23:15:33.058-07:002014-04-14T23:15:33.058-07:00hi
pl note 6.9 quake at Bouvet Island region on 1...hi<br /> pl note 6.9 quake at Bouvet Island region on 15th at 3.57 UTC ,AS PREDICTED. PL NOTE DATE AND MAGNITUDE ACCURACY OF QIAKE<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-90459620274692223972014-04-13T08:10:10.665-07:002014-04-13T08:10:10.665-07:00Pl note 7.6 quake at soloman to day ie
13th as pr...Pl note 7.6 quake at soloman to day ie <br />13th as predicted.<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-1293168700471025702014-04-03T00:57:49.950-07:002014-04-03T00:57:49.950-07:00Hi Amit,
You have a good Blog on Earthqua...Hi Amit,<br /> You have a good Blog on Earthquake prediction. <br /><br />I don't know on what basis you are predicting earthquake but as per vedic astrology, April 2014 is a volatile month for Earthquakes based on planetary placements & influences.<br /><br />I have written an interesting article on my vedic astrology blog about this. <br /><br />If Interested please refer link below.<br />http://someshsastroworld.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/chandra-grahantotal-lunar-eclipse-on_26.html<br /><br />Best Wishes<br />Somesh<br />http://someshsastroworld.blogspot.co.uk<br />someshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668026989217196952noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-45919403488899189652014-04-02T16:31:06.761-07:002014-04-02T16:31:06.761-07:00Amit;
After giving it some thought and consulting...Amit;<br /><br />After giving it some thought and consulting with others, I've decided to allow consecutive windows but will remind you that misses count against you so making many such predictions will lower your score.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-84400812540093003972014-04-02T11:49:41.320-07:002014-04-02T11:49:41.320-07:00Amit;
> If the quake occurs in first three d...Amit;<br /><br />> If the quake occurs in first three days ,it is in first window and if occurs in next three days it is in second window.<br /><br />How is that different from my 10 consecutive windows?<br /><br />If you were giving different locations it would be ok.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-22042314604089851372014-04-02T10:32:48.057-07:002014-04-02T10:32:48.057-07:00The Chilean football federation has banned a top d...The Chilean football federation has banned a top division team from using a new shirt that has the number one shaped as the map of Palestine before the creation of Israel.<br /><br />Chile warms to a Palestinian state<br />Chile will support Palestine state in UN vote but abstains from boundaries controversy<br /><br /><br /><br />The 2010 Chile earthquake occurred off the coast of central Chile on Saturday, 27 February 2010, at 03:34 local time (06:34 UTC), having a magnitude of 8.8 on the moment magnitude scale<br /><br />The 8.2 magnitude quake that shook northern Chile on Tuesday killed six people and triggered a tsunami that pounded the shore with 2-meter (7-foot) waves.<br /><br />warning tsunami given to six countries<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-30410640231967179822014-04-02T09:13:12.402-07:002014-04-02T09:13:12.402-07:00hi
Mars is at closest (0.618 AU-Astronomical Unit...hi<br /> Mars is at closest (0.618 AU-Astronomical Unit ie average distance of Sun to Earth) between 11th to 16th April 2014.<br /> During these period When Moon at Equator (13th), Moon Joins Mars(14th),Full Moon on 15th, Moon at maximum declination(19th) are prone for 6+ quakes<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.com