tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post1144078183438253300..comments2024-03-28T15:14:28.490-07:00Comments on earthquake prediction: sample study-planets changing direction and quakesAMIThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-8614453630811669742010-06-02T12:01:03.952-07:002010-06-02T12:01:03.952-07:00Amit;
The catalog includes all quakes so that one...Amit;<br /><br />The catalog includes all quakes so that one can do his own selections.<br /><br />Some users may want to see all the aftershocks. Others may not.<br /><br />My program excludes them. Not just aftershocks, but any multiple hits in a window because I want the probability of a hit in a time window.<br /><br />If it's a prediction for a certain size or certain area, only those quakes are searched.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-74945595487329081322010-06-02T09:06:49.826-07:002010-06-02T09:06:49.826-07:00Roger
1)you mean previous ears list of 6+ quakes i...Roger<br />1)you mean previous ears list of 6+ quakes is to be taken?<br />2)If we take NEIC list,it will give more value of odds as all quakes are considered in list. Why then multiple quakes and clusters are not counted for calculating accuracy of prediction?<br /> If we include we should include both time,if we exclude we should exclude both time <br />regards <br /> AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-66709934545286965392010-06-01T20:48:36.139-07:002010-06-01T20:48:36.139-07:00Amit;
I don't know of a link but the method i...Amit;<br /><br />I don't know of a link but the method is very simple.<br /><br />Suppose you want probabilities for 2009 using a 3 day window for mag 6+ quakes.<br /><br />Divide the time into consecutive 3 day windows. There are 122 of them.<br /><br />Get a list of all 6+ quakes for 2008.<br /><br />Place each quake in the window corresponding to it's date.<br /><br />Count how many windows have one or more quakes in them. Say there were 91 of them.<br /><br />The odds are then 91/122 = 0.75<br /><br />The situation gets much more complicated if you have a group of predictions with different probabilities. Dr Jones had to invent a new system for that.<br /><br />Roger<br /><br />Divide theRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-10159327705543686852010-06-01T09:35:43.277-07:002010-06-01T09:35:43.277-07:00Roger
NEIC records says from 1.1.1980 to
1.1.2010...Roger<br /> NEIC records says from 1.1.1980 to<br />1.1.2010 the quakes are<br />6-6.9------3749 ie av per year 125<br />7-7.9------375 ie av per year 13<br />8+---------24 ie av per year say 1<br />It imply that all quakes (clusters and aftershocks) are included in total.How than we can compare both,one inclusive of clusters and aftershocks and another without it?.<br /> What could be these average figures excluding both?<br />regards <br /> AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-42346116772713141532010-06-01T09:10:54.854-07:002010-06-01T09:10:54.854-07:00Roger
I would like to know more about Jones metho...Roger<br /> I would like to know more about Jones method.Could you suggest some link for that?<br />regards <br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-33521267649981488112010-06-01T06:58:03.309-07:002010-06-01T06:58:03.309-07:00Amit;
I don't know for certain but I suspect ...Amit;<br /><br />I don't know for certain but I suspect it's a simple count from the catalog.<br /><br />The question is "How many mag 6 quakes happen on average?" which is quite different from our question which is "What are the chances that a 30 day window will contain a mag 6+ quake?"<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-21853638762497618542010-05-31T23:41:40.190-07:002010-05-31T23:41:40.190-07:00Roger
As per USGS the average quakes of 6-6.9 is ...Roger<br /> As per USGS the average quakes of 6-6.9 is 134 ,and that for 7-7.9 is 15.<br /> I wonder how these averages are calculated.Wheather aftershocks and clusters are considered while ariving at these average figures?<br /> Any idea ?<br />Regards <br /> AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-52163175878439569142010-05-31T11:55:58.497-07:002010-05-31T11:55:58.497-07:00Amit;
1) True
2) Why? You aren't predicting ...Amit;<br /><br />1) True<br /><br />2) Why? You aren't predicting location anyway.<br /><br />3) True but not relevant.<br /><br />4) Maybe but you have to show it happens consistently and you can't do it with a small sample. You're just cherry picking.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-34821834971651976952010-05-31T09:27:01.708-07:002010-05-31T09:27:01.708-07:00ROGER
I have some different opinion.
1) All quake...ROGER<br /> I have some different opinion.<br />1) All quakes are not aftershocks<br />2)They occur at different places all over the globe and hence they need to be counted<br />3) Even aftershocks(major) have defined pattern<br />4) Those termed as clusters and which are not counted actually shows that the date is potent,as far as tidal pull is concerned<br />regards <br /> AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-37095685010338993622010-05-31T09:09:13.002-07:002010-05-31T09:09:13.002-07:00Amit;
It means nothing.
Quakes happen in cluster...Amit;<br /><br />It means nothing.<br /><br />Quakes happen in clusters due to aftershocks. This confuses the statistics if averages are used.<br /><br />The Jones method I use minimizes the effect of clusters by counting hits in a yes-or-no manner, giving odds for a "one or more" situation.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-91708508933877867232010-05-31T05:07:38.719-07:002010-05-31T05:07:38.719-07:00hi
when Jupiter and saturn both cahnges the direct...hi<br />when Jupiter and saturn both cahnges the direction say saturn on 27th January 2001 and Jupiter on 26th January 2001,as well as when both closer,what happens<br />Jupiter--4.5 AU from Earth<br />Saturn----8.7 AU<br />Venus---- 0.62 AU<br />Earth to Sun --0.985 AU<br /> Results are<br />6-6.9------25<br />7-7.9------7<br />8+---------0<br />please see quakes of 7-7.9 are several times the average (average is 1.2 per month)<br /> AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.com