tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post254465211778276041..comments2024-03-28T20:31:49.909-07:00Comments on earthquake prediction: Roger- Your resultsAMIThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-75065698703289423532015-02-19T06:18:38.799-08:002015-02-19T06:18:38.799-08:00Amit;
A 6.5 today gives you a hit.
It doesn'...Amit;<br /><br />A 6.5 today gives you a hit.<br /><br />It doesn't help. You lost the competition, doing no better than my random predictions.<br /><br />Your method does not work.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-22065271841118367302015-02-16T20:14:22.006-08:002015-02-16T20:14:22.006-08:00Roger
The 6.8 Japan quake is on the threshold of ...Roger<br /> The 6.8 Japan quake is on the threshold of window ( 43 minutes earlier than predicted)<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-22283402777516510092015-02-16T15:42:52.718-08:002015-02-16T15:42:52.718-08:00Amit;
Wow, 3 qualifying quakes today.
Too bad yo...Amit;<br /><br />Wow, 3 qualifying quakes today.<br /><br />Too bad you missed them.<br /><br />Roger<br />Roger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-87857217075507119682015-02-11T20:05:12.995-08:002015-02-11T20:05:12.995-08:00Amit;
Correction; 6.7
RogerAmit;<br /><br />Correction; 6.7<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-43344321586210917082015-02-11T18:41:24.304-08:002015-02-11T18:41:24.304-08:00Amit;
5.7 today.
You missed it.
RogerAmit;<br /><br />5.7 today.<br /><br />You missed it.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-19056453569438268542015-02-10T07:42:09.222-08:002015-02-10T07:42:09.222-08:00Amit;
The odds on a hit for a 6.1+ quake in 2 day...Amit;<br /><br />The odds on a hit for a 6.1+ quake in 2 days is 0.412<br /><br />9/19 is 0.474<br /><br />The difference is not significant.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-28996435909023840162015-02-09T23:27:15.007-08:002015-02-09T23:27:15.007-08:00Even if we take 48 hours window for my predictions...Even if we take 48 hours window for my predictions ( ie the date of prediction + 12 Hrs on either side, I get 9 hits<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-46579595949672035572015-02-07T10:26:51.399-08:002015-02-07T10:26:51.399-08:00Amit;
I don't know where you're getting t...Amit;<br /><br />I don't know where you're getting this 2/3 better business but it's wrong.<br /><br />If I can equal or better your results by chance that's proof enough that YOUR results are just due to chance.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-55283965300148931632015-02-07T10:08:26.271-08:002015-02-07T10:08:26.271-08:00http://quakeearthquakepredictions.blogspot.com/http://quakeearthquakepredictions.blogspot.com/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-6874039129185884662015-02-07T06:15:52.972-08:002015-02-07T06:15:52.972-08:00Roger
If you a statement that
"my prediction...Roger<br /> If you a statement that<br />"my predictions are below odds" at least two third should be able to score more than my score.<br />we have following persons scoring more than me in each month (out of 30)<br />Sept.....12<br />Oct........7<br />Nov.......17<br />Dec......6<br />Jan 15....7<br />........................<br />total 49 out of 150 ,scored more than me<br />ie roughly one third.<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-84517652358547670922015-02-06T10:39:58.078-08:002015-02-06T10:39:58.078-08:00Amit;
It's not necessary for me to beat you b...Amit;<br /><br />It's not necessary for me to beat you by a wide margin. All I have to do is show that my chance scores are as good as your scores.<br /><br />That proves your results are just by chance and not due to some skill or valid method.<br /><br />Check with a mathematician.<br /><br />Roger.<br /><br />Roger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-45541910916599054162015-02-06T10:34:34.130-08:002015-02-06T10:34:34.130-08:00Amit;
Let's look at this month by month.
Sep...Amit;<br /><br />Let's look at this month by month.<br /><br />Sep 2014, we made 4 predictions<br />You got 2/4 hits, I got 25/30 hits<br /><br />Oct 2014, we made 3 predictions<br />You got 1/3 hits, I got 25/30 hits<br /><br />Nov 2014, we made 4 predictions<br />You got 3/4 hits, I got 30/30 hits<br /><br />Dec 2014, we made 4 predictions.<br />You got 2/4 hits, I got 25/30 hits<br /><br />Jan 2-15 we made 3 predictions<br />You got 1/3 hits, I got 16/30 hits<br /><br />Feb 2015 we made 1 prediction.<br />You got 1/1 (maybe), I got 20/30 hits<br /><br />I'm defining a hit as your score or better so if you got 2/4 a hit for me is 2, 3, or 4<br /><br />Do you see a month where you did better than me?<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-24451002894181990182015-02-06T05:58:46.183-08:002015-02-06T05:58:46.183-08:00Roger
To the best of my knowledge the persons at s...Roger<br />To the best of my knowledge the persons at sr no 2,10,17,18,19 and 20 have better score than me ie number of hits are<br />10,13,10,11,9 and 10 respectively. These are out of 19 predictions<br /> Thus 6 out of 30 persons ie 20%random dates are better than my predictions<br /> If my predictions are below odds,at least 75% persons should score better than me<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-13446829580179020452015-02-06T05:17:27.530-08:002015-02-06T05:17:27.530-08:00Roger
If you want to be more specific,you can chec...Roger<br />If you want to be more specific,you can check how many persons ,out of 30 have better score than me.<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.com