tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post3161570328547964085..comments2024-03-28T20:31:49.909-07:00Comments on earthquake prediction: Earthquake Prediction for December 2016AMIThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comBlogger82125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-35090500147078642972016-12-31T09:28:18.274-08:002016-12-31T09:28:18.274-08:00Amit;
Predictors are as follows;
1) Roger
2) Rag...Amit;<br /><br />Predictors are as follows;<br /><br />1) Roger<br />2) Raghu<br />3) Curious<br />4) Phil<br />5) Amit random<br />6) Amit random<br />7) Amit random<br />8) Amit real predictions<br />9) Anonymous<br />10) Unknown<br />11) Dman<br /><br />You may need to revise your numbers accordingly.<br /><br />Results at a glance by comparing observed to expected.<br />Anyone getting more than expected is doing well.<br /><br />Factor in odds to compute significance levels but the interesting thing is how many random predictions scored much better than expected.<br /><br />It's all just chance.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-37582821459288131182016-12-31T02:49:40.705-08:002016-12-31T02:49:40.705-08:00Roger
You need to explain for the viewers
However,...Roger<br />You need to explain for the viewers<br />However, here is general results<br />Total 6+ quakes in month.....19<br /> 1)Amit..8 quakes, 5 hit prediction,4 date hit prediction<br />2)Roger...5,4,3date Hits<br />3)Raghu...4,3,1 date hit <br />4)Curiou..10,4,4 date hit<br />5)pihip..7,4,0 date hit<br />6)Amit1...5,4,3 date hit<br />7)Amit2....9,3,2 date hit<br />8)Amit 3...8,4,3 date hit<br />9)D man B..2,2,2 date hit<br />10)Unknown...2,2,1 date hit<br />11) Anonymous..10,4,3 date Hits<br /><br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-43156565173532516212016-12-30T16:39:55.042-08:002016-12-30T16:39:55.042-08:00Amit;
Here is the output, assuming no more quakes...Amit;<br /><br />Here is the output, assuming no more quakes are found this month.<br /><br /><br />DT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 QK<br /> -----------------------------------<br /> 1| 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0| 1<br /> 2| 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0| 0<br /> 3| 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0| 1<br /> 4| 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0| 0<br /> 5| 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0| 1<br /> 6| 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0| 1<br /> 7| 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0| 0<br /> 8| 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0| 3<br /> 9| 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0| 2<br />10| 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0| 1<br />11| 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0| 0<br />12| 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0| 0<br />13| 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1| 0<br />14| 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1| 0<br />15| 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1| 0<br />16| 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0| 0<br />17| 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0| 2<br />18| 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0| 3<br />19| 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0| 0<br />20| 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0| 1<br />21| 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0| 1<br />22| 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0| 0<br />23| 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1| 0<br />24| 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1| 0<br />25| 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1| 1<br />26| 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1| 0<br />27| 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0| 0<br />28| 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0| 0<br />29| 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0| 1<br />30| 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0| 0<br />31| 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0| 0<br /> -----------------------------------<br /> 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 15 10 7 7 19 <br /> .387 .387 .387 .387 .355 .355 .387 .484 .323 .226 .226 Odds for each predictor<br /> 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 3 2 2 Expected hits<br /> 4 4 10 8 5 11 8 9 11 1 1 Observed hits<br /><br />Roger<br /><br />Roger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-18645217305524725262016-12-30T06:16:45.727-08:002016-12-30T06:16:45.727-08:00Roger
As the month is almost over, please give so...Roger<br /> As the month is almost over, please give some findings and results<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-64612868437623426252016-12-29T17:20:19.377-08:002016-12-29T17:20:19.377-08:00Roger
I will check and reinstate comments
AmitRoger<br />I will check and reinstate comments<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-91647550144176025952016-12-29T17:07:50.388-08:002016-12-29T17:07:50.388-08:00Amit;
Ok. I thought maybe it was due to something...Amit;<br /><br />Ok. I thought maybe it was due to something I said.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-81303800526414124632016-12-29T16:52:01.808-08:002016-12-29T16:52:01.808-08:00Roger
Those were video, which I could not open. Th...Roger<br />Those were video, which I could not open. Thought , could be spam.<br />Will check again, if found ok,will be up loaded<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-4575372867769653502016-12-29T15:50:43.777-08:002016-12-29T15:50:43.777-08:00Amit;
6.2 in Indonesia just now.
5 of the 11 pre...Amit;<br /><br />6.2 in Indonesia just now.<br /><br />5 of the 11 predictors got it.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-24610038018232167732016-12-29T11:34:14.523-08:002016-12-29T11:34:14.523-08:00Amit;
What and why were comments deleted?
Someth...Amit;<br /><br />What and why were comments deleted?<br /><br />Something I said?<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-70371672101654969252016-12-29T11:32:31.232-08:002016-12-29T11:32:31.232-08:00Amit;
That's true but what in this world IS f...Amit;<br /><br />That's true but what in this world IS fully proven and absolutely accurate?<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-62965523484786128042016-12-28T21:42:44.777-08:002016-12-28T21:42:44.777-08:00Roger
Agreed.
But necessarily imply that, the meth...Roger<br />Agreed.<br />But necessarily imply that, the method is not fully roof and accurate<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-66304636303103180082016-12-28T21:25:43.979-08:002016-12-28T21:25:43.979-08:00Amit;
Magnitude is calculated from trace amplitud...Amit;<br /><br />Magnitude is calculated from trace amplitudes on the records but those signals are subject to a lot of different things. Plus the answer is the result of averaging a lot of signals.<br /><br />It would be unusual for different stations to come up with the same answer.<br />I use the USGS published values and even those get revised on occasion.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-8373578879180824262016-12-28T20:16:54.506-08:002016-12-28T20:16:54.506-08:00Hi
The recent quake on 28th at Japan was 5.9 by US...Hi<br />The recent quake on 28th at Japan was 5.9 by USGS,where as Japan seismology put it at 6.3.<br /> http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20161228214208392<br /><br /> I wonder,how come ,with such sophisticated instruments and series of seismograph s, both agency can not agree to one figure. Further, how come seismologist expect earthquake prediction br accurate to +or -0.3<br /> Any explanation<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-90351651629488930542016-12-27T16:00:21.119-08:002016-12-27T16:00:21.119-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10924133791011159997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-77209227652354436312016-12-27T15:58:48.249-08:002016-12-27T15:58:48.249-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-71547070930363211832016-12-26T07:46:48.618-08:002016-12-26T07:46:48.618-08:00Unknown;
It is counted, it just hasn't been m...Unknown;<br /><br />It is counted, it just hasn't been mentioned yet.<br /><br />Only 3 of the 11 predictors caught it.<br /><br />Roger<br />Roger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-17053312033852837322016-12-25T20:32:17.896-08:002016-12-25T20:32:17.896-08:00I am following the blog and is a common man withou...I am following the blog and is a common man without knowledge of earthquake . Why Chile earthquake of yesterday not counted Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08221663595809515986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-57823591759903005132016-12-21T20:36:14.123-08:002016-12-21T20:36:14.123-08:00Amit;
Yes, that's part of writing a program.
...Amit;<br /><br />Yes, that's part of writing a program.<br /><br />Preliminary results show predictors 3, 6, and 9 are doing much better than expected based on the number of quakes in their windows.<br /><br />But the month isn't over...<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-13063253030721581952016-12-21T00:17:15.726-08:002016-12-21T00:17:15.726-08:00Roger
It is ok. However,a new program need to be t...Roger<br />It is ok. However,a new program need to be tested and QA-QC need to be done.<br /> AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-19703544760086157502016-12-21T00:15:05.165-08:002016-12-21T00:15:05.165-08:00Hi
6.7 quake on 21st at East Timor.
A hit predicti...Hi<br />6.7 quake on 21st at East Timor.<br />A hit prediction<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-8032007985783076252016-12-20T10:12:16.436-08:002016-12-20T10:12:16.436-08:00Amit;
I'm working on a program to do the eval...Amit;<br /><br />I'm working on a program to do the evaluations. Got tired of calculating by hand.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-77878559015828198442016-12-17T07:37:29.398-08:002016-12-17T07:37:29.398-08:00Amit;
Oh, I see. I didn't scroll back far eno...Amit;<br /><br />Oh, I see. I didn't scroll back far enough.<br /><br />No, those numbers have no mathematical significance and may give false impressions.<br /><br />You're free to do it for comparison to my method.<br /><br />Roger<br />Roger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-59828665084122165312016-12-16T21:24:09.710-08:002016-12-16T21:24:09.710-08:00Roger
Please see second comment
AmitRoger<br />Please see second comment<br />AmitAMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-24218573648237551512016-12-16T18:48:28.012-08:002016-12-16T18:48:28.012-08:00Amit;
I don't see any explanation for the poi...Amit;<br /><br />I don't see any explanation for the point scores you are giving.<br /><br />RogerRoger Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03159156315266044017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33253361.post-72269057368357399242016-12-15T08:19:58.242-08:002016-12-15T08:19:58.242-08:00Roger
The method is explained earlier
Yes.I have t...Roger<br />The method is explained earlier<br />Yes.I have three dates till 15th .most of you have two. Only anonymous and curion have three dates. Final results will be available only after month end. <br />AMit<br /><br />AMIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156510982882875208noreply@blogger.com