Second pase Prediction evaluation rules

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COMPARISON – FINAL SCORING RULES (Effective April–June 2026) 1. Data Source and Event Definition All earthquake information will be taken from the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Only earthquakes of Magnitude 6.0 and above (M6+) will be considered. Event time will follow USGS origin time (UTC) with seconds accuracy. Earthquakes occurring anywhere on the globe and at any depth will be considered. 2. Prediction Dates Each participant must publish four (4) fixed prediction dates for the month. These dates must be published on or before the 28th day of the previous month (UTC). Once published, prediction dates cannot be changed during that month. Example: For April predictions, dates must be published on or before 28 March (UTC). 3. Prediction Window For each predicted date D, the valid evaluation window will be: D − 1 day, D, and D + 1 day (UTC) Example: Prediction = 10 April Window = 9 April, 10 April, 11 April (UTC). 4. Exact Date Hit Score MagnitudeScore6.0 – 6.9+57.0 – 7.4+107.5 and above+15 An exact hit occurs when the earthquake happens on the predicted date (UTC). 5. Window Hit Score MagnitudeScore6.0 – 6.9+37.0 – 7.4+57.5 and above+10 A window hit occurs when the earthquake happens on D−1 or D+1. 6. Miss Penalty MagnitudePenalty6.0 – 6.9−17.0 – 7.4−37.5 and above−5 Two types of misses are defined: (a) Prediction Miss: If no qualifying earthquake occurs within the prediction window (D−1, D, D+1), the prediction is considered a miss and the above penalty applies. (b) Unpredicted Earthquake: If an earthquake of M6.0 or higher occurs outside all prediction windows, a penalty will be applied according to the same scale above. Each such earthquake will be treated as a separate miss event. 7. Scoring Method Scores will be updated daily based on UTC dates. A running total score will be maintained throughout the month. 8. Experiment Duration Phase 1: March 2026 – evaluation using the original rules already in use. Phase 2: Revised rules (this sheet) will apply for: • April 2026 • May 2026 • June 2026 9. Transparency Prediction dates must be published in advance. Rules remain frozen during each month. Results will be publicly documented. 10. Multiple Earthquakes in a Window If more than one M6.0+ earthquake occurs within a prediction window, each earthquake will be scored separately according to the rules. Example: Two earthquakes M6.1 and M6.5 on the predicted date → +5 +5 = +10. 11. USGS Catalog Authority The USGS Earthquake Catalog will be the only official reference for magnitude, origin time, and location. If USGS later revises the magnitude of an earthquake (for example from M6.0 to M5.8), the score will be adjusted according to the revised catalog value. 12. Open Participation This exercise is open to anyone who wishes to participate. Members of the public, researchers, or seismologists in particular may submit four (4) prediction dates for the month, following the same rules and deadlines. 13. Seismic Sequence Rule (Mainshock and Aftershocks) If a large earthquake produces a sequence of related earthquakes (aftershocks), scoring from that seismic sequence will be limited to a maximum of three earthquakes of M6.0 or higher. The largest earthquake in the sequence (mainshock) will always be counted. Up to two additional M6+ earthquakes from the same sequence may also be counted if they fall within valid prediction windows. A seismic sequence is defined as earthquakes occurring: • within 300 km of the mainshock epicenter, and • within 30 days after the mainshock.

Score as in 4th March 26

#USGS Earthquake prediction dates Score as on 4th March 2026 Chat GPT +4 Gemini 0 Amit Dave +10 Keep watching

Score card for March 26, up to 3rd March

The Scrore of my Earthquake Prediction for the month of March with ChatGPT and Gemini AI ,up to 3rd March 2026 is as follows 1) Chat GPT +1 2) Gemini -3 3) Amit Dave +7 Rules are a) Date hit 6 and above quake..+5 marks for each quake b) Margin hit ,ie + or -1 day.. + 3 fo each quake c) Each 6 and above miss quake -1 mark Four dates given by all of us Keep watching

Japan quake prediction for 3rd and 4th March 2026

Following are probable time in UTC for 6 and above quakes for longitudes band 120E to 140 E Japan Band 1) 3rd March 2026 UTC time 8.30 UTC 14.30 UTC 21.30 UTC 2)4th Mar h 2026 ..UTC time 2.30 UTC 9.30 UTC 15.00 UTC Margin + or - 45 minutes Longitudes band 120 E to 140 E Disclaimer.. The theory is not approved by any institute. The quakes predicted may not occur and that no action is required. This is for academic records please

Evaluation as on 2nd March 2026

Daily Evaluation of my Earthquake Prediction dates of March 26 ,with the dates given by Chat GPT and Gemini Here is Daily evaluation criteria as approved by Chat GPT • Date hit one 6 and above...5 marks for each date hit • Margin hit .1 quake....3 marks each • out side margin ,for each 6 and above quakes -1 mark ,for each miss • The total will cover all three aspects Now As on 2nd March marks are A) Chat GPT ...... -2 B) Gemini........ -2 C) Amit Dave..... +2 After each 6 and above quake this table will be revised

Response by Chat GPT

Response by Chat GPT Understood. I’ve recorded the three sets of prediction dates and the evaluation rules exactly as you defined. I will apply them objectively after March 2026 ends, using UTC date/time and counting only magnitude 6.0 and above earthquakes. Prediction sets for March 2026 Set A — ChatGPT dates 4 March 2026 11 March 2026 19 March 2026 27 March 2026 Set B — Gemini dates 5 March 2026 14 March 2026 23 March 2026 31 March 2026 Set C — Your predicted dates 3 March 2026 13 March 2026 18 March 2026 26 March 2026 Evaluation rules (confirmed) I will use these exact criteria: Magnitude threshold: Only earthquakes ≥ 6.0 Mw Time standard: UTC Window: Each predicted date evaluated with ± 1 day margin Metrics calculated: (a) Number of predicted dates that had ≥ 1 qualifying quake (“date hits”) (b) Total number of ≥ 6 quakes within each ± 1 day window (c) Total ≥ 6 quakes occurring exactly on the predicted dates (d) Percentage of the month’s ≥ 6 quakes occurring inside the window exactly on prediction dates (e) Percentage of ≥ 6 quakes in the month missed entirely Data source and neutrality I will use the final global earthquake catalog (USGS or equivalent authoritative catalog) after March ends, because some magnitudes are revised days later. This prevents bias or premature conclusions. Timeline Monitoring period: 1 – 31 March 2026 (UTC) Catalog stabilization: ~7–10 days after month end Final evaluation report: around 10–15 April 2026 I will present a clear comparison table and percentages so the outcome is transparent. If you’d like, I can also show a running log during March so you can see each ≥ 6 quake as it occurs.

Comparing dates with AI for March 2026

This month the probable dates fir major ie 6 and sboveare posted here . This is a special case and special month for such prediction Though everyonth I do post my dates on my blog ,fb and LinkedIn but this time ChatGPT have taken up my challenge of comparing random 4 dates given by AI and my dates . The results after comparing, will be done by Chat GPT as per its earlier declared rules 1) 4 dates from both side 2) Date and time as per UTC 3) 6 and above magnitude will be counted 4) margin will be + or - 1 day 5) evaluation will be done on a) total date hits b) total number if quakes in margin (+ or - 1day c) total 6 and above quakes on predicted dates d) percentage of total 6 and above quakes of the month in window period and exactly on dates e) % quakes missed in month A) Now the dates given by Chat GPT are 4th ,11th,19th and 27 March 2026 B) Dates given by Gemini 5th, 14th, 23rd, 31st And the dates predicted by me are 3rd March 2026 13th March 2026 18th March 2026 26th March 2026 Watch out