Cebu philipines quake.and prediction for February 2012

hi
 As mentioned earlier, some how found some time over night and now posting the probable dates for February 2012
  Saturn is stationed this week and changing direction, any aspect of Moon with planets changing the direction may induce quakes. Thus we have philipines quakes
 Now ,the probable dates rae
1)12th Feb 2012-----6.5
2)16th Feb ----------6.3
3)21st Feb ----------6.2
4)24th Feb----------6.4
Place not known
window period + or - one day
magnitude window + or - 0.3
Amit

Earthquake prediction for February 2012

hi
 Election commission have schedulded election on 16th of February 2012 for Municipal corporation  of Greater Mumbai .Hence , there is heavy work load at ward level. working as a head of the ward ( as Assistant commissioner) it has become very difficult for me to find some time and work on my caculations for my February 2012 prediction. It is essential for me to work on all Saturadys and Sundays as well as on public holidays.
  Nevertheless ,if  Ican find some time during night hours, I will try to do some calculations,and post my probable dates
Amit

Earthquake prediction for January 2012

hi
 This year ,it may be difficult for me to post very often ,due to my official duty.It is quite likely that,my official responsibilities will increase due to promotion.very soon.
Nevertheless,my monthly prediction posts and replies to readers views will continue
The probable dates for quakes for the next month will be like this

1)2 nd January 2012-----------------6.2

2)9th January 2012------------------6.5

3)18th/19th January 2012-----------6.6

4)23rd January 2012----------------6.3

window period is + or - one day

Amit

Study links tropical cyclones to Earthquakes- A study

hi
 Please see at the right side of this blog  -Study links tropical cyclones to earthquakes- or see link

http://www.dawn.com/2011/12/09/study-links-tropical-cyclones-to-earthquakes.html

Now the study have shown relation between cyclones and major earthquakes (in certain cases)
It says,the land slides and mud creates imbalance of load on the fault line and quakes occurs.

This relationship was earlier shown by me on this blog.
I believe ,what research have found is not correct. Only the load imbalance can not create quakes.
The real reason ( as I believe)is like this

The tidal forces and momentum change forces apply to all levels ie

1)When it applied to molten magma /lava it creates /produce quakes (if the crust is broken partially)

2) When the pull coincides with /.comes directly under mouth of volcano,it break open the mouth and eruption occurs (volcanic eruption occurs at high tide zones only)

3)When applied to oceans it creates high tides and low tides (which we are aware)

4) Over solid crust ,it deforms the upper crust by few inches (this is also proved )

5) When the same pull apply to cloud  layers ,it creates concentration of moist clouds at high tide zone and may result in cloud brusts (un usal cloud bursts)

6)Now, when there is high tide zone at one side  a low tide zone is created at 90 degree apart .
   When there is greater high tide pulls ,the low tides are also maximum.
    when ,the place comes out of low tide zone (which has created low pressure zone there) ,air rushes to fill the low pressure zone. When such air ( rushing towards) low tide zone pass over Ocean waters at 26 to 28 degrees,it gathers momentum from latent heat of water and may induce tropical cyclones
  
This shows, the force behind all ,this is tidal pull (high tid and low tides ) as well as momentum change ( due to planets changing the direction0
  Time and again ,it is noticed that ,whenever ,there is major quake ,it is either preceded or followed by cloud bursts and land slides


  The load changes ,due to mud slides ,creates quake may not be correct( to the best of my knowledge)
A few meter of mud have very less weight comparing 100 kms of earth crust


These are my views and my theory of - The General  theory of natural disasters

Amit

Earthquake prediction for Decembar 2011

hi
 Following dates and time are prone to major quakes as mentioned .(location of quakes not predicted)

1)6th December 2011-------------------0815 UTC--------6.3

2)10th December 2011-----------------1515 UTC--------6.5

3)20th December 2011-----------------1115 UTC-------6.6

4)24th December 2011----------------1715 UTC--------6.9

Amit

Bolivia Earthquake of 6.6 on 22nd November 2011

hi


Watch the first quake of 6.6 at Bolivia on 22nd November 1848Hrs.

and accuracy of prediction

One question to pro plate tectonic theory members

Question- The quake at Bolivia was very deep ie 533 kms below .The earth crust is mostly 50to 60 km thick

Ref-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_crust



How this quake could originate as below as 533 kms. and what short of crust failure this quake could be?



Watch till 26th November ,the dates and times

(place not predicted)

Amit

Results of Year 2011 Earthquake prediction ,till October 2011

hi
Here are the actaul quakes (7+)  as against predicted dates for the year 2011 ,till October 2011
1) January
  Prediction date -------------actual dates and quake
   4th------------------2nd at 2020Hrs UTC----7.2
2)April
     8th-----------------7th at 1432 Hrs--7.1
3)July
   9th------------------6th at 1903 Hrs---7.6
                                   10th---------------7.0
4)August
 22nd----------------20th at 1819 Hrs-----7.1

5)September
   5th-------------------3rd at 2255 Hrs UTC---7.0
   16th-----------------15th -----7.3
6)October
   22/23rd-------------21st--------7.4
                                   23rd--------7.2
  Thus there are 9 Hits of 7+ quakes
 If you do not consider little inaccurcy of 2/3 Hrs ,there are 5 dot hits (+ or - one day window and 7+)


There are 19  quakes of 7+ during January to October 2011(incluning clusters)
The average number of 7+ quakes per year are 15
thus odds are 15/120----120 because ,total days 360/ 3 day window period
                       ie 1/8   ie one in eight or 0.125
 Now 9 hits out of 19 is 9/19  0.473
 Even if we consider 5 hit out of 19 it comes to
              5/19 ie 0.263
Both way it is above random date selection or average occurances(even after taking in to account cluster of quakes)

Amit