Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Friday, June 26, 2015

Earthquake prediction for the month of July 2015

Hi
 I am a back in action after one month gap. Now everything is settled and I can find some time to do some calculation and publish probable dates for major quakes(6+) for July 2015

1)1st/2nd.........6.6

2)5th/ 6th.........6.5

3)15th /16th.....6.7

4)18/19th........6.4

5) 28th ........6.3

window period + or - one day and magnitude window + or - 0.3

note  1st /2nd means  date is 12 noon from st to 12 noon of 2nd July
 for academic purpose ,you can also take window period for the same day ie 24 Hrs only

Amit

Friday, May 29, 2015

Earthquake prediction for the month of June 2015..( sorry unable to post for this month)

Hi
  I have recently shifted my residence and everything in the house is a mess. No proper broadband net connectivity for few more days. and I  have to post from my cell phone.
  I could not do much work for this month and hence , I am unable to post the probable dates for the month of June 2015.
Amit

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

How to predict major Earthquakes ?....an invitation to software engineers to prepare suitable software

hi
 Here I shall give my theory in nutshell and the indicators which leads to major quakes.(6+)
(A) Theory
    very briefly it states that,like high tides and low tides in the oceans, there occurs similar and corresponding high tides and low tides in the semi solid/molten lava below the earth crust.
Whenever the pull exceeds certain limits and the resultant pull acts on the weaker crust or fault line,an earthquake occurs. The more the pull or weaker the crust (fault line) ,the bigger the quake
     Extension to this theory also states that, if the crust is completely broken ,or if the pull is acted upon volcano mouth,it may erupt. Further,if on a given date if eruption occurs,the magnitude of quakes will be less ,because the internal pressure is released by eruption
  In this theory Moon is the main trigger. When other indicators (mentioned below) are present and Moon Joins ,opposes or squares the indicators the quake may occur

(B) Prediction
  a) Determining month/s of major quakes
 b) Fixing the date and time of quake
C) predicting location of quake

a)  determining the month
  following indicators are required for selecting the month  in descending order
1) Jupiter closer...4.4  AU (Astronomical Unit which is equal to average distance between Earth and Sun)
2)Jupiter at Maximum declination....+ or - 22 or 23
3)Venus closer....0.4 AU
4)Venus at maximum declination...+ or -23 to 27
5)Sun closer......0.98 AU
6) Sun at maximum declination.....+ or -22 or 23
7)Mars closer......0.7 AU
8)Mars at maximum declination...+ or - 22 and above
9)Saturn closer ..........8.5  AU
10 Jupiter standstill...(changing direction)...
11)Venus stand still..(changing direction)
12)Mars stand still ..(changing direction

 more the indicators are present in a given month ,more potent the month is. from sr number 1 to 9 any two indicator can give 6+ quake. .If exceeds ,5 it may give 7.5+ quake( depending upon the crust over which it is acting

b) determining the date and time..( in descending order ie first one is most potent)

 the theory states that, Moon is the main trigger in almost all major  quakes. once the month is decided, find the Moon in that month for following
1) Moon at perigee...ie closest...ie 57 ER (Earth radius)
2)Moon at maximum declination.....+ or - 20 to 27 ( in that particular month)
3) Full Moon or New Moon ( also eclipse if any)
4)find the major indicator from a) above ie jupiter, Sun,Venus or Mars ,depending upon their strength ,..and then find the date and time of Moon JOing, opposing or squaring that potant indicator
5) Moon at equator and at node 

c) Location
   location depends either on Moon position or the the most potent indicator from a) above
the time(+ or - 2Hrs...because moon takes 2Hrs to move one degree) can be fixed from B ) above. Further at that time find the Moon position on Earth ( where it is overhead at that time) The Lattitude and Longitude ,where Moon is overhead at given time as well as 180 degree apart (other side of globe for tidal pull acts at both ends) ,is prone to quake
    OR
 The position of most potent indicator on earth (Lat long) ,as well as 180 apart are the prone locations
 Note
location accuracy also depend on the earth crust ,wher pull is acted upon at given date and time. If the crust is solid and no fault line comes under pull at that hour ,it can wait for few Hrs to fault line come under pull Or may pre pone the time as per weakness of crudt

cycle quake theory
 it simply says that, the chances of major aftershock is high where major quake (7+)  have occured after
 12 hrs
24 Hrs
7/8th day
15/16th  day
pl note Nepal had major quakes after 24 hrs as well as 15/16th day
Amit

Major quake of 7.4 on 12th May 2015, as predicted by -cycle quake -theory

Roger
 please note yet another striking proof of my -cycle quake- theory. A huge 7.4 quake at Nepal today ie 12th May 2015. The date was exactly mentioned by me. It was also mentioned that ,Nepal authorities to remain alert after 7/8th 15/16th day of the major quake.
 The exact date was mentioned on my blog. unfortunately no body wants believe , any theory other than defunct plate tectonics

Wake up ....USGS.....Wake up

Amit

Thursday, May 07, 2015

Earthquake prediction for rest of the May 2015

hi
 I am sorry. Due to busy work schedule , i could not calculate and post the probable dates for rest of the May 2015. It is unfair to say anything for today quake of 7.1 at PNG. Though ,it was very much on my diary (6.5). As we have Venus closer and at maximum declination on 6th. Besides on 7th we have Moon at Maximum Declination south
  If you doubt,pl observe the Moon Maximum Declination north on 20th

1)12th May................6.6

2)19/20th ................6.7

3)24th ..................6.4

Time window + or - one day.
Amit

Sunday, May 03, 2015

Roger you re evaluations of my theory, (which does not match with your first one)


 Roger
 Sorry, I am posting your e mail on this blog (without your permission)
 This is exactly what I meant by QA-QC and UAT, for the program you have developed so far
 for testing my predictions. Now ,look, the basic things ie number of aftershocks and its 
distribution do not match,with respect to your first findings Now the question is , how far one should believe,the programs and results you have announced so far,stating my method is wrong, and that I should quit?


Amit

-----    ------   -----   -----  ----  -------   ------    -----   -----   -----  -----  --
Hi Amit;
I found the problem(s); numerous programming errors.
I have the habit of assuming that when the answer looks correct, it is correct.
WRONG!
I found spelling errors and logic errors by actually printing out the main quakes and aftershocks.
These are included in the printout so you can check them yourself if you wish.
Now the results are more consistant with the exponential decrease in aftershocks over time.
The curve (if plotted) would be much smoother and your special times are not any higher than expected.
I apologise for the mistakes.
Roger




There were 215 main quakes (7.5+) and  210 aftershocks
in the 10x10 degree square centered on each main quake

23 13  4  7  3  5  7  4  2  5  4  4  3  2  2  5  3  2  1  3  1  1  2  4 
 4  2  0  3  2  2  0  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
 0  2  0  0  1  1  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  2  0  1 
 1  1  1  1  1  0  1  0  2  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  1  2 
 2  2  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
 0  0  2  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  2  0  1  1  0  0  0  0  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  1 
 1  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  1  0  0  2  0  1  2  0  0 
 0  0  2  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  1 
 1  0  1  1  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  0  0  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  1 
 1  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  2  0  0  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1 
 1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Roger your evaluation of aftershocks ( as per my cycle quake theory)

There were 215 main quakes (7.5+) and  413 aftershocks
in the 10x10 degree square centered on each main quake

 9  8  2  3  0  2  1  2  1  3  4  2  2  0  0  1  3  2  1  1  1  1  2  3 
 3  1  0  2  3  2  1  1  0  2  1  0  1  1  0  1  0  1  1  1  0  1  1  0 
 0  1  0  0  3  1  2  0  1  1  1  3  1  0  0  1  1  0  2  0  0  2  0  0 
 0  1  0  2  0  0  0  1  1  3  4  0  1  1  1  0  3  2  1  2  0  0  0  2 
 2  0  0  0  0  1  1  2  0  2  0  0  2  0  2  1  0  1  1  0  1  0  2  1 
 1  2  2  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  2  2  2  1  2  0  3  1  0  1  3  1  0  1 
 1  3  1  1  1  1  0  0  2  0  3  2  0  1  0  0  1  2  0  1  0  1  2  5 
 5  3  0  3  0  1  0  1  3  1  1  0  0  0  0  2  3  0  1  2  1  3  1  1 
 1  1  1  4  2  4  2  0  1  1  0  1  1  3  0  0  0  2  2  2  1  3  4  2 
 2  0  1  1  0  1  0  0  2  1  0  3  1  0  0  0  1  2  1  3  1  0  1  1 
 1  1  1  1  2  2  0  0  2  1  2  1  2  1  1  0  0  1  1  1  0  2  0  1 
 1  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  1  0  1  1  0  0  1  0  1  2  2  1  1  0  1  2 
 2  1  0  1  0  3  1  2  2  2  1  2  0  1  1  0  1  1  2  0  3  1  0  0 
 0  0  0  1  2  2  0  1  3  0  0  1  2  3  2  1  0  2  2  2  3  1  0  2 
 2  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  2  1  2  0  1  1  3  0  0  1  1  1  1  1  0  1 
 1  0  1  0  0  2  0  0  0  1  1  2  0  1  1  1  0  1  2  3  0  0  0  1 

 
For viewers ,let me explain
 The evaluation of my -cycle quake theory- for aftershocks ,done by Roger Hunter is posted above

A) My theory says that, after a major quake of 7.5+ , at any location ,the chances of two (first and second highest) aftershocks are highest
1) after 12 Hrs
2)after 24 Hrs
3) on 7th or 8th day
4) on 14/15th and some times even on 16th day

B) Above table shows output of evaluation done by my friend Roger Hunter
   Rows (horizontal lines relates to days-first raw for first day and 16th raw for 16th day
   columns(vertical lines) pertains to hours of that particular day
numbers mentioned shows the numbers of quakes highest ( first or second) on that Hour of that day
  
now look

 Leaving first hour of quake we have
on 11th hour.....4 quakes
   12th Hrs......2
   13th Hrs......2
      24th Hrs...........3 quakes
     25th Hrs .........3 quakes


Also watch 7th day ,24th Hrs and 8th day first hr score ,which is 5 aftershocks in an Hr

Roger,what more proof you need.

 watch 11/12th ,24th and 25th hour scores ,much higher than any one /two hrs scores

on first day we have......54 quakes
   second day we have.....28 quakes


 on 7th day we have.......28 quakes
    and 8th day we have....32 quakes

on 15 h day we have ......20  quakes
   16th day we have...... 18 quakes

watch the quakes

except on first day ,the 7th and 8th day scores much more

Amit

Monday, April 27, 2015

Earthquake Prediction for May 2015

hi
 I have yet not calculated the details of probable dates for May 2015. However, as I have earlier said, and as per my cycle quake theory, I expect a major quake ( greater than 6.7) on 4th May at 3.00 UTC.
  As mentioned earlier, I can not post the probable location on this blog, I will be keeping the location ready with me. This will be 7/8th day of major quake at Nepal
  If Roger agrees. I am ready to share the probable location with him.
 I am aware that, giving this statement ,is not ethical and as per laws, I would still suggest,authorities to remain alert on the date (4th May) and time 3.00 UTC(+ or - 6 Hrs), for Nepal
Amit