Hi
Following are the probable dates for major quake of 6+
1)8th.......6.3
2)15th......6.6
3)19th......6.5
4)26th......6.7
Amit
Following are the probable dates for major quake of 6+
1)8th.......6.3
2)15th......6.6
3)19th......6.5
4)26th......6.7
Amit
13 comments:
Amit;
0/5 quakes, 0/1 predictions so far
Roger
Hi
A 7.2 Earthquake hits Maxico today .
A hit production
Dave
Amit;
A hit but just barely. Minutes before the window closed.
Roger
Hi
7.2 quake at Maxico.A hit prediction
Amit
Amit;
Bad month for you.
Current score 1/6 quakes, 1/3 predictions.
Roger
Amit;
A hit today! 7.5 too.
Roger
Amit;
I just ran a check on the odds of a mag 6+ quake within a 3 day window, location unspecified.
Guess what; it's 53.2%
This is based on all such quakes from 1973 to 2017
There have been 4 such quakes since yesterday, mostly aftershocks so your current score is 5/10 quakes in windows, 2/4 windows containing quakes, 50% either way.
Just chance.
Roger
Roger
You are not considering one thing ,though I say it will be ,6+ quake( being safer side is my mistake),,almost all of my quakes are either 65+ or even 7+)
So if you count odd of hits for 6.+ or 7+ that will be classified
Amit
Amit;
Sorry Amit, that won't work.
Of the 10 quakes so far we have four 6.0, one 6.1, one 6.3 and one 6.4
The other two were 7.2 and 7.5
So counting your way, only 2 hits
Roger
Amit;
Correction;
The odds on a 7.0+ quake in 3 day window is 0.085 so you would expect to get 1 hit out of 4 predictions so you're still well within chance.
Roger
Roger
Either my stats is very poor or I am not able to get it.
Odds of 0.085 is 85 in 1000
Or 8.5 in 100
Or say maximum 10 in 100
ie 1 in 10
How come it is 1 in 4
Amit
Amit;
You made 4 predictions, each with .085 chance of success
.085*4 = .740 so you should get 1 hit in 4 tries (roughly).
You got 2 hits so you're slightly better than expected.
Small samples like this can be very misleading.
Roger
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