Hi
Here are some of the probable dates fir 6+ quake prediction for the month of September 2019
1) 7th September ......6.4
2)15th September.....6.5
3)23rd September....6.6
4)28th September...6.9
Amit
Here are some of the probable dates fir 6+ quake prediction for the month of September 2019
1) 7th September ......6.4
2)15th September.....6.5
3)23rd September....6.6
4)28th September...6.9
Amit
42 comments:
Amit;
Here's the results from the updated quake list.
Total number of quakes 6436
Total moon maximum distances 607
Total moon minimum distances 610
Total moon maximum distances hits 200
Total moon minimum distance hits 203
Total moon maximum declinations 615
Total moon minimum declinations 615
Total moon maximum declination hits 197
Total moon minimum declination hits 210
Odds on a quake within a 3 day window .624
Expected number of hits by chance 4016.1
Observed number of hits 810
I don't know if the entire file can be sent as it's pretty large.
Roger
Roger
I am confused
The reasults for 6-7 years I have posted are actually got by taking each day of Moon closer and searching for quakes in that windows
So far results shows out if 13 or 14 such days in a year, more than 60% are hit
Amit
Amit;
That's exactly what my program does so one of us is wrong. (Probably me)
Can you send me the results for some of the days you've looked at, so I can
see what days and quakes are involved?
Roger
Amit;
I looked at 2014, 2015 and 2016 and counted the number of times
when there was a quake within +- 1 day from lunar minimum distance
2014 5
2015 6
2016 3
We seem to disagree.
Roger
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Ok
By Sunday ,a weekly off day for me
Amit
Roger
Here is some details for 2016
Moon at closest
1)15th Jan..quakes...on 14th..2 quakes
2)11th Feb....on 10th and 12th..2 quake
3)10th March....nil
4)7th April...6th.2 quakes and 7th.1quakes
5)6th May ...nil
6)3rd June..nil
7)1st ...quake on 30th..1
And on 27th....nil
8)22nd August..21st...1 and 23rd..1
9)18th Sept..17th...1
10)16th Oct ..15th..1 and 17th...1
11)14th Nov...13th....4 and 14th..1
12) 12th Dec....nil
Toal..18 quakes in window
and ..9 hits out of 13 if only one quake is taken per window
Amit
Roger
Where as you say ,there are only 3 hits in 2016
I suggest ,as a sample you yourself do physical check for 2016,
Amit
Roger
Possibly you are counting date hits only
Amit;
No, 3 day hits, but only 1 hit per window counts
Roger
I constantly spent my half an hour to read this blog's articles all the time along with a cup of coffee.
Roger
Only one hit per window also comes to 9
Amit
Very good article. I will be going through some of these issues as well..
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Amit
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Best of luck for the next!
Amit;
Finally got the quake file fixed.
Here are the results;
Total number of quakes 6436
Total moon maximum distances 607
Total moon minimum distances 610
Total moon maximum distances hits 200
Total moon minimum distance hits 203
Total moon maximum declinations 617
Total moon minimum declinations 617
Total moon maximum declination hits 207
Total moon minimum declination hits 212
Odds on a quake within a 3 day window .624
Expected number of hits by chance 4016.1
Observed number of hits 822
Your results are far below chance expectation.
Roger
Amit;
The scores I gave earlier refer to the proximity between moon phenomena and quakes and cover the entire range from 1973 to 2018.
Thus the answers do not apply to your predictions but rather to the utility of the moon.
I'll score your actual predictions next.
Roger
Amit;
Here is the updated result with all your predictions added.
Total number of quakes 6436
Total moon maximum distances 607
Total moon minimum distances 610
Total moon maximum distances hits 200
Total moon minimum distance hits 203
Total moon maximum declinations 617
Total moon minimum declinations 617
Total moon maximum declination hits 207
Total moon minimum declination hits 212
Total number of predictions 492
Total prediction hits 151
Expected number of hits by chance 307
Odds on a quake within a 3 day window .624
Expected number of hits by chance 4016
Observed number of hits 822
Roger
Happy Birthday Amit!
Roger
Roger
Thank you so much
Amit
Amit;
You're welcome.
It's nice that with the internet one can have friends all over the world.
Roger
Hi
A 6 quake at Outro Ricki on 24th 3am UTC
A hit prediction
Amit
Quake at Puerto Rico
Hi
One more at Pakistan
8 dead several injured
Amit
Amit;
Puerto Rico is a date hit with wrong mag and no location.
Haven't heard about Pakistan from NEIC
Roger
Amit;
Pakistan was too small
Roger
Amit;
Southwest Indian Ridge is a hit
Roger
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Amit;
Missed one today.
Roger
Amit;
Missed another one today.
Roger
Roger
Wait,a bigger one is yet to come in 48 to 72 hrs
Amit
Roger
A hit on 27th September
Amit;
Yes.
Just chance.
I'll say otherwise when your overall score is above chance.
Roger
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and I find It truly useful & it helped me out much. I hope to give something back
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Roger
Look ,6.2 at Philippines on 29th Sept
Whenever I predict more than 6.6 ,I am sure ,it will come.
Otherwise it could be less than 6.4
Amit
Roger
Here is the true one ,which was predicted .A 7.2 at Chile today ie 29th september.a hit prediction
Roger ,have seen anyone so confident saying -wait one more to come-
Amit
Amit;
NEIC has not announced any quake in Chile today.
Roger
Amit;
Correction; they didn't announce it to ME but it is listed on their website.
However, the prediction has already been satisfied by an earlier quake.
Roger
Roger
That's right
Thanks
Amit
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