Why plate tectonics can not explain deeper quakes?

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep-focus_earthquake

We do not know how deep quakes occur at a depth greater than 300 kms.
Subduction plate reaching right up to 800 km depth without melting is not possible.
How and why are we still holding the plate tectonics theory.
  What I believe is the tidal  pull is applicable at all levels.  At the depth below  Earth crust (>200 kms) the quakes can be explained by tidal pull theory.
There is yet another solid mentle layer below the crust beyond 600 kms to 2200 kms. The liquid, molten menle below that sold layer also produces tidal pull. When the solid menle at depth 600 to 2200 breaks /partially deep quake occurs.
   All seismolist and supporting plate tectonics are requested to comment on this hypothesis
watch
https://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com

Earthquake prediction for March 2023

 Hi

Here are the probable dates for 6+ quake .window period + or - 12 hrs as per UTC

Location of epicenter as per my hypothesis Posted earlier

1) 7th

2)10th

3)15th.

4) 20th

4)24th

Amit

Why plate tectonics can not predict major Earthquakes?

 Yes ,there is some exaggeration in this. However it is a fact that tidal pull of Moon ,Sun and major planets induce high tide in the molten magma in side the crust and also make Earth crust buldge to the extent of 1 ft .

 Now ,my theory of Earthquake prediction says ,when on a potent date ( when Moon Sun are closer , full Moon, New moon ,Jupiter closer ie less than 5 AU -Astronomical unit ) the tidal pull breaks the weaker fault line and quake occurs. If it can break open mouth of volcano an eruption occurs

 I only know one thing.

if we know ,exactly how and why major Earthquakes occur, we should be able to predict it precisely. 

 Say we have equation

Force = Mass x acceleration. 

if we know two values of three we should be able to find third.

 Now in plate tectonics, we know..

plate area, depth of planets, average density of plates( Hence weight and mass), we know velocity of plates ( Hence kinetic energy =1/2 m(square of velocity)

we know ,surface area of contact between two plates and hence compression/shear force per unit area.

 Test the sample of crust in laboratory for compression and shear strength apply factor of safety and...AND...AND..

Declare a date when the plate boundaries will exceed tested shear strength..

 ..PLATE TECTONICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PREDICT MAJOR QUAKES PRECISELY 

Check

https://lnkd.in/dzRtvB6w

Yet another quake on date

 yet another quake on predicted date

A 6.3 quake at Indonesia on 23rd February 2023 at 20.02 UTC

 Look at the epicenter, just before Sunrise in twilight zone

Any doubts?

Yet another date hit quake prediction

 Yet one more date hit ,magnitude hit prediction with correct location hypothesis. 

 A 6.8 quake today ie 23rd February 23 at 0.37 hrs UTC at Tajakistan

  Watch Sun twilight zone ,just before dawn at epicenter 

  How many date hit prediction are required for USGS to take Cognizance 

watch

A date hit ,time hit 6 + quake prediction

 Hi

Watch Turkey quake of 6.3 on 20th Feb at 17.05 UTC as against time predicted for Israel (+ or - 10 degree longitudes) ie 34 E 

 One hour accuracy 

Amit

Beauty of text by Varahmihira

 Beauty of Snaskrit text /book by Varahmihir ( Brihatsmahita)

Varahmihira was an Indian scholar ( 6th century CE , possibly 505 to 587 ) . He was an Astrologer ,Astronomar ,who lived in UJJAIN ,present day Madhya pradesh of India. He composed several astronomical and Astrological books including pure mathematical astronomy .

Some of the famous books are

Panch Sidhhantika

 Brihat Jataka

Brihat Samhita

I have decided to study his book Brihat Smahita ,which deals with several things related to earthquakes like

Bhukmap lakhshana...( Earthquake signals and predictions)

Solar and lunar Eclipses 

Conjunction and Oppositions of major planets 

Some of the fascinating things I could find are

Moon does not have its own light ,it reflects Sun light

Moon always shows one side to us

Lunar Eclipses are same at various places but Solar Eclipses differs

Lunar Eclipse can not be Annular 

In Solar eclipse Moon comes between Sun and Earth

Whenever there are conjunction of 5 planets Eclipses are rare to occur

To know the solar eclipse ie from where it will start and at what side it will end he has suggested a method like this...

Before 7 days of solar eclipse , place a drop of oil on a bowl containing water and observe the movement of oil drop. Where the oil drop moves will be starting side of Eclipse and opposite will be the direction of end of the eclipse

There are several things mentioned in the chapter of Earthquake ( 32nd Chapter) pertaining to Earthquake signs ,predictions and consequences

I am still to comprehend what all has been said ( by the way I have failed to understand it several times before this) ,However only one thing I will mention here 

The magnitude of the quake and the time(local) at which it occurs have great relation,that is what he has mentioned

A) If it is pre dawn to Noon ...Maximum magnitude..shown by distance at which it is felt..200 Yogans ( I Yogen =8 miles or 12.8 kms)

B) Noon to Evening.. only 10 Yogans

C) Evening to Midnight ..60 Yogans

D) Midnight to Dawn..180 Yogans

See the beauty .. we have seen Early morning quakes are deadly . So Midnight to Dawn is most dangerous for quake as per Varahmihir

Why are we stcking to plate tectonics which does not work?

 We have seen time and again that the set norms ,ideas by science are very difficult to change. whether it is the idea that Earth is ge Center of universe or that the Earth is flat.

 The bottom line is ,if the theory which we believe, does not serve the basic purpose,  we need to look outside the theory.

 One such theory is plate tectonics. 

A lot many questions it can not answer ,forget prediction of quakes.

 Why are we so stubborn, not to have a look at other theories.

  On seemingly signals we have accepted this theory 

 What if I say..

 Yes ,there are plates and they are moving and that 90% quakes occur at plate boundaries  but...

1) Plates are due to Quakes and that ,quakes are not due to plates

2) Quakes occur at plate boundaries because those are weaker sections and tidal pull can break it first

3)Plates are moving due to Earth rotation and not due to convection currents 

 4) Plates try to move away from Equator to poles, that is why we have negligible land mass at equator and huge chunks at poles

5) Speed of plates is more near Equator and less near poles ( will be at stand still at poles)

5) In northern hemisphere plates moves North ,North East and at Southern hemisphere they move South ,South -west

6) Gondwana was first and last supercontinent, which broke due to violent quakes and eruptions 

7) Once plate reach near to poles will never come back to equator 

8) Major quakes and eruptions are due to tidal pull acting on molten magma

Statestics and law of average does not give correct picture all the time

 One of my friend argued tgat there are nearly 150 quakes those are greater than 6 magnitude. So ,every alternate day.

What is fun in doing such prediction of 6 + quake with ,say + or - one day window.

  Yes 

If you go purely with Satatestics and law of average, there shoukd be 6+ quake evey alternate day.

 But this is only a theoretical situation. 

 Say for example we have several major quakes on 6th Feb 2023. But after that not much.

 One 6.1 at NZ on 13th February. 

 So what seems not favoring my theory ,is actually helping it.

 What happens is on potent date and it's window period ,there are several, often a dozen ,6 + quakes ,which gives you a figure of 150 on an average over a year.

  So stats, always doesn't give correct pictures 

Are these events by chance?

 Last time when Jupiter was closest to Sun in 2010 ,we have witnessed a huge coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on May 22- 24 ,2010

 Now after 12 years ( corresponding to Jupiter closest position to Sun) ,on 20th January 2023 ,we have a news headlines..

A big chunk of Sun has got detached from Solar pole..

 Do you think this happens by 

Amit

Solar Maxima and super maxima hypothesis

 

One more hypothesis..

Solar activity or Solar Maxima occurs with a frequency of 12 years.
This Solar activity or maxima is due to Jupiter coming closest to Sun after nearly 12 years.The giant gravitational pull of Jupiter is the cause of Solar maxima.
  Further ,this Solar activities will on peak ie super maxima will be after every 60 years ,when Jupiter and Saturn are closest to Sun simultaneously
Solar experts to comment on this hypothesis

Amit

The Great conjuction and Earthquake prediction

 The Great conjuction and Earthquake prediction 

The conjuction of Jupiter and Saturn is termed as Great Conjuction.This conjunction normally occurs at an interval of 20 yrs ,to be exact 52 days less than 20 years. We had recently a closest Great conjunction (less than 0.5 degree) on 11th Dec 2020,such closest conjuction occured in 1200 AD.Normal conjunction, after 20 yrs may be less closer ,3 to 5 degrees.

  Jupiter takes 12 yrs ( 4332.59 days) and Saturn takes 30 yrs ( 10759.22 days) .Jupiter overtakes Saturn after 20 year. Thus both are in conjunction after every 120 degrees ( actually 127 degrees)

 Some times it could be a triple conjuction .If Jupiter becomes retrogate just after conjunction, it moves back and again join Saturn.,like one in 1980-81.

 Now ,the year of Great conjunction +or - 6 month is very potent for major ( 7.5 + quakes even 6 + also)

Two latest are 28th May 2000 and 11th December 2020.

 These Great conjuction when closer to Earth every 20 years ,are capable of changing the rotation of Earth core.

Thus actual date of Great conjunction is less potent than when both are closest to Earth 4 AU ,and 8 AU ,same time

  Now ,during this 2 years ,when all other planets joins / come closer to Earth,one by one, and Moon joins ,there will be major quakes.  Mars and Venus if joins have Great potential. 

 We have Bhuj quake of 7.7 on 26.1.2001 ( Great conjuction) and 11.3 2011 Japan quake ( Great opposition) are two examples 

  During this 2 years Moon phases ,Proximity and Declinations of Sun Moon to be watched carefully. If Mars is closer say 0.5 AU ,it is more potent 

Let us work together..and predict major Earthquakes with date ,time and epicenter accuracy

 Major quakes are ,generally, preceeded by heavy rain / thunder ( on the same day) but All rains are not followed by major quakes

1) Every Rain does not indicate major quake .We had in Mumbai 26th July 2005 ,a downpour of 944 mm in 24 hrs ,and no quake. Last Monsoon Mumbai crossed 2500 mm of rain fall and no quake

2)  Now ,I will explain my universal theory of tidal pull. The tidal pull acts on all layers ie magma ,Earth crust ,Ocean ,Atmosphere and clouds.Even tropical cyclones are due to low tide effects on atmosphere 

3) Higher tidal pull concentrate the rain clouds and rain occurs.

4) Yes ,generally, due to tidal pull rain proceeds major quakes ,but not before 10 -15 days but same day ,may be same time

  I have an idea ,if all work closely.

A) Take potent quake day as per my theory

B) Observe Moon and Sun Zenith, Nadir ,rising and setting time at specific location 

C) If there is heavy rain and thunder on potent date , co related with Moon ,Sun ,that could be epicenter

D) Take inputs of Radon discharge and satellite imagery for plate movements 

E) Take opinion of cloud Observer,  animal behavior Observer 

And locate epicenter accurately

Just a wild thought about built up stress at plate boundry

 Just a wild thought

 We know following things in case of Earth crust plates

1) Area of plates

2) Depth of plate 

3) hence volume of a given plate

4) Average density of a plate (Hence weight of the plate)

5) Area of contact (fault line length and depth)

6) Speed of plate (Hence kinetic energy )

Now we take out sample from Earth crust depth (maximum possible ) and test in laboratory for their compressive strength and shear strength

 Take necessary factor of safety as per engineering standard 

 With all these are we able to say that ,the given fault line is now on verge of exceeding the laboratory tested strength multiplied by factor of safety ?

  Can we able to say with certainty that the given fault line will exceed the limit of shear strength in couple of years (not exceeding  5 years ) ?

 I would like expert opinion on this 

How much mtr is the high tide of molten Rocks below Earth Crust?

 Look at the following points

1) Recently it was published in Nature Geo science , by Junlin Hua , a post Doctoral research scholar that,unlike previous understanding ,there is wide spread layer of molten rocks at about 100 miles depth

( Backed by University of Texas at Austin)

2) It was recently published that there could be water ,double the amount in oceans ,below Earth crust

3) How can we ,then say that the tidal pull is negligible below Earth crust?

4) Any one have ever estimated what height those high tide could be? 

5) We teach in school that there is no high tide in a pond because the volume is too less to notice it and that volume in oceans is too big.Now compare the volume of ocean water with molten rock volumes or double water below Earth crust .and decide for yourself the effects of high tide

 So while studying the tidal pull on major earthquakes ,please look at the other factors (other than Moon phases only)

Amit

Major Earthquake prediction theory

 Theory

Earth consists of an upper Crust  100 km thick and .semisolid magma below.what causes an earthquake (6+) is the tidal pull exerted on molten magma . The Moon ,Sun and major planets like Jupiter , Mars ,Venus and Saturn  also exert pull on magma and upper crust . 

When the tidal pull exceeds, the magma breaks the crust partially and an earthquake occurs. If the pull can break open the mouth of a volcano an eruption will occur. 

 Moon have maximum tidal pull and most of the quake triggers are decided by the position of the Moon.

Deciding the potent date/s

. If Sun and major planets (Jupiter, Mars, Venus and Saturn  are closer the month has potency to produce 6+ quakes 

The minimum distances are 

Sun 0.983 AU (Astronomical unit )

Moon  57 ER (earth radius) 

Jupiter … 3.9 

Mars…. 0.52 

Venus….0.28 

Saturn….8.5 

  if more than one planet is close, it is more potent

Once the distances are known ,check whether in that given month any planet is at maximum declination or closer to maximum declination (N or S).

Also check whether Sun is at Max Declination North or South

Maximum Declinations of planets and stand still positions of the planets are very important because  after that ,it will change the direction from North to South or south to North.  due to this  the tidal pull direction also suddenly changes and there will be an imbalance and jerk  which induce imbalance in the magma causing an earthquake

Deciding the date and time 

Date is decided by the most powerful and fast moving Moon .

 When Moon joins or opposes Sun , Jupiter , Mars, Venus .it creates a trigger for quake. The date on which Moon is closer during month and at maximum declinations North or South these dates are also potent. Often we have seen that, full Moon and New Moon are more powerful for major quakes.

The time can be decided when Moon Joins/opposes Sun /Jupiter,/Mars/ Venus ( whichever is potent ie closer and having maximum declination) 

(c ) Deciding magnitude

Magnitude  can be decided by the  potency Moon ,Sun and other planets have on that day and time . 

If the Sun is closer and at Maximum declination,  or even during New Moon,full Moon. Moon, closest (57 ER ) and maximum declination possible (+ or -27 d ), Jupiter , Mars ,Venus and Saturn are closer and at maximum declination ,the quake could be well above 8.5 magnitude

Deciding locations

 Location of major quakes can be decided by the position of Moon and Sun in that order, where they are at Zenith and/or Nadir longitudes at the decided time with + or – 10 degrees of margin

THE PLATES ARE DUE TO QUAKES AND THAT THE QUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATES

   location fixing is dynamic

what can be said is .. On potent date the time of quake at a specific location can be estimated by observing Moon /Sun and their Zenith Nadir /rising and setting  at that location 

Probable time for Israel Earthquake

 Here are he probable time for major quakes at Israel (+ or  - 10 longitudes) on two dates 19th and 20th  of February.

(Theory based on tidal pull -not plate tectonics)

(Disclaimer) 

 please note that , these are not sure to come . However ,if at all it has to come (6+) these are the probable times (+ - 45 minutes) for 19th and 20th of February 2023(Time in UTC)

A) 19th February 2023

   4.05 UTC

   9.20 UTC

  14.50 UTC

  21.40 UTC

B) 20th February 2023

   4.40 UTC

  10.10 UTC

  15.50 UTC

 22.40 UTC

for more pl see

Oh ! One more 7.5 quake at Turkey

 oh ! Yet another major earthquake at Turkey  

A 7.5 at 10.24 UTC

Now watch may dates ..5th February 2023 ... (6.3) 

Window period + or - one day 

Yes , magnitude is higher than what I have expected 

watch this quake at 38N .37 E and now watch Moon at 143degree west so at Nadir (sharp) ..180-143 +37 degree dot epicenter 

Also watch Sun at 28 degree East ( margin) .Both at potent locations 

 Now how do plate tectonics explain aftershocks of increasing magnitude

  I hope Japan Seismology and JAMA ,also USGS will drop the fix mind set and have a look at theory which is other than plate tectonics ,which has failed to predict the quakes

   The drawback of this plate tectonics is ..students and research scholar are fed ,continuously ,in their maid that ..Earthquakes can not be predicted

....    .....  .... ..... ...

  A boy was slipping at last bench in maths class .When he woke up he saw ,every one has gone and a mathematical problem written on black board by teacher.He thought it is a homework given by teacher

  Next day he came with solution. Teacher was surprised. How a boy can solve an unsolved problems over years. 

when asked, he said ,I did not know it is a unsolved mistry.

  So do not feed young generation that Earthquakes can not be predicted

watch

https://lnkd.in/dzRtvB6w

A date hit Earthquake prediction

 Hi

Here is one  date hit ,7.8 Earthquake st Turkey today at 1.17 UTC ,ie 6th February 23.

as against predicted date 5th ( + or - 1 day )

Watch accuracy 

Amit

Epicenter hypothesis explained..II

 Now I will give logic behind my epicenter location hypothesis. 

1) As the Moon and Sun are main contributors to tidal pull on semi solid magma and Earth upper crust they are deciding factor for 85% of major quake epicenter 

2) The tidal pull is applicable to both side of globe ,180 degree apart , both Zenith ( overhead) and Nadir ( opposite side of globe) are prone for quake simultaneously. It is exactly like ocean hightides occurring simultaneously at both side of globe 

3) Now the magma is pulled at both end ,Zenith and Nadir and both are prone for quake 

4) The pull also applied to upper crust.It is pulled at both end (zenith &Nadir) hence the crust at Rising and setting locations are stretched, which breaks the crust at plate boundaries. 

Thus Zenith,Nadir Rising and setting of Moon and Sun are prone to quakes

 One more observation by my friend is..

If I give + or - 30 minutes of margin for Moon and Sun both ,it amounts to utilizing 8 hrs out of 24 hrs of day.

 Answer is..

 In most of cases Moon and Sun are  joining or opposing hence 8 hrs come to 4.

  Further on prone dates only these are to observed at plate boundaries. 

  Besides ,if all other methods are used for these 8 hrs on prone dates ,we may be able to save lot of lives

Epicenter hypothesis explained

 

Now I will give logic behind my epicenter location hypothesis.
1) As the Moon and Sun are main contributors to tidal pull on semi solid magma and Earth upper crust they are deciding factor for 85% of major quake epicenter
2) The tidal pull is applicable to both side of globe ,180 degree apart , both Zenith ( overhead) and Nadir ( opposite side of globe) are prone for quake simultaneously. It is exactly like ocean hightides occurring simultaneously at both side of globe
3) Now the magma is pulled at both end ,Zenith and Nadir and both are prone for quake
4) The pull also applied to upper crust.It is pulled and both end (zenith &Nadie) hence the crust at Rising and setting locations are stretched, which breaks the crust at plate boundaries.
Thus Zenith,Nadir Rising and setting of Moon and Sun are prone to quakes

Epicenter location hypothesis -test 1st December 22 till to day (4th February 2023)

 One of my friend , a retired USGS seismologist has mentioned that , while showing my location hypothesis , I am cherry picking the quakes ,those are suitable to my epicenter location hypothesis

So ,here are all 17 major quakes ie 6+ from 1st December 2022 till toddy ,this time ,ie 21.48 Indian Slandered time

Here is the results.. All study with longitudes of epicenter

1) 6.8 ,4th December ,Tonga....moon at Nadir (30minutes window)

2)6.0 Mexico ..11 th Dec 2022...Moon setting ( 30 minutes window)

3)6.3 Ret Island ..14th Dec 2022 ..Sun Rising ( sharp )

4)6.4 ..20 th Dec 2022...Moon rising ..(30 minutes)

5)6.1 Loyalty ..28th Dec 2022 ..Moon at Nadir ( 10 degree margin0

6)6.0 Afghanistan 5th January 2023..JUPITER AT ZENITH

(CLOSER 5 AU)

7) 7.0 Vanuattu 8th Jan 2023..Sun at Nadir 9Sharp)

8)7.6 Indonesia 9th Jan 2023 Moon at Zenith (Sharp)

9)6.2 Indonesia 15th Jan 2023..Sun Rising (Sharp)

10)6.3 Japan 16th Jan 2023 MARS AT NADIR (closer and at changing direction)

11)6.0 Indonesia 18th Jan 23 .Moon at Zenith ..sharp

12)7.0 Indonesia 18th Jan 23 .Moon setting ..sharp

13)6.2 Guadeloupe ..20th Jan 23..Sun Rising ..sharp

14)6.8 Null .. 20th Jan 23 ..Mon setting ..sharp

15)6.4 Argentina 24th Jan 23..Moon at Zenith ..sharp

16)6.0 NZ 26th Jan 23... Moon setting ..sharp

17)6.0 Philippines 1st Feb 23 .Sun setting ..sharp

Amit

Epicenter Hypothesis

 My epicenter hypothesis says...

Epicenter ,generally,will be at place...(with + or -10 degree longitudes window )

where Moon /Sun are at Zenith/Nadir 

or

at locations where

Moon /Sun are rising/setting 

depending on which ever is closer

Let us talk about today's few quakes sequentially 

1) 6.0 quake at 10.44 UTc at philipines ,126 degree east --watch location of epicenter  ..Sun Setting 

2) 4.6 quake at Peru , 10.52 UTC ,78 degree West...watch Sun Rising

3) 4.6 quake at Greece , 23 degree east,at 10.53 UTC ..watch Sun at Zenith ..also Moon Rising

4) 5.0 quake ,at 11.11 UtC , at Dominican Republic, 70degree West ..watch Sun Rising 

Notice as Moon is away 62.9 ER all locations follow Sun

Nevertheless , Moon and Mars are triggers

watch location hypothesis

 Why Sun /Moon at Zenith /Nadir for epicenter location?

Because tidal pull on magma is maximum at both longitudes, Zenith and Nadir, which break open the weaker section ( plate boundaries) and hence quake.

Why Moon /Sun at Rising/Setting  considered for location of epicenter?

 

The pull on plates give bulging effect at Zenith and Nadir. However, at Rising /setting of Sun/Moon locations Plates are pulled apart, giving a stretching pull at those location.

weaker sections open up due to these stretches and hence quakes at those locations 

Amit

Check accuracy of epicenter htpothesis

 

My hypothesis for epicenter says..

Epicenter are ,generally, located at ..

Zenith/Nadir of Sun /Moon 

Or

at locations..

Rising /setting of Moon/Sun

Depending on whichever is closer,with margin of +or - 10 degree longitudes 

Let us talk about today's few quakes sequentially 

1) 6.0 quake at 10.44 UTc at philipines ,126 degree east --watch location of epicenter  ..Sun Setting 

2) 4.6 quake at Peru , 10.52 UTC ,78 degree West...watch Sun Rising

3) 4.6 quake at Greece , 23 degree east,at 10.53 UTC ..watch Sun at Zenith ..also Moon Rising

4) 5.0 quake ,at 11.11 UtC , at Dominican Republic, 70degree West ..watch Sun Rising 

Notice as Moon is away 62.9 ER all locations follow Sun

Nevertheless , Moon and Mars are triggers

watch location hypothesis