Roger /all esteemed viewers.
One of my friend ,who is retired USGS seismologist, have stated that,my performance of prediction accuracy is very poor.
He says, I have predicted 74 dates during 2020 to 24 and there are only 13 hits( 6+ quakes) in window period of + or - one day.
I have requested him to post the results here for all to see and check.
There is nothing to hide.
By the way ,after January 18th hit prediction he has said ,there are two hits in current month
Here is few more on 20th ,including 6.4 Brazil quake
So 3 hits in current month ,and 13 in last 4 years?
So ,by this post ,I request Roger to post results he has found ( that I have failed- 13 hits out of 74 predictions in 4 years)
Regards
Amit Dave
16 comments:
amit;
Please excuse my poor performance lately. I'm having health problems that interfere with
life in general. Don't get to my age if you have a choice. It isn't worth it.
I finally found the output listing for the 13 hits but it's 5 pages long. How can I send it to you?
Roger
Amit;
As I said before, the information fills 5 pages and I don't know how to send it to you or
post it online.
Roger
Roger
1) I am proud of the interest and enthusiasm that you possess at this age.
2) As far as my reaching that age is concerned, I do not know ,whether I can reach that age.(Difference of age 68 and 88 is too much ,to survive )
3) Do not worry , I will do ,Physical checking of any one year (from 2020 to 2024) first.
You decide and say which one is the year of worst prediction accuracy, I will do it in couple of days
4) Alternatively, I invite one and all to do it at their end. Predicted dates are available on this blog.
5) Roger ,keep working , on topics of your interest.
AGE IS JUST A NUMBER
Regards
Amit
amit;
Ok, check 2021. It had NO hits.
Roger
amit;
I have no predictions from you for 2021.
Is it possible that I just didn't FIND your predictions?
Roger
Amit;
Age may be just a number but health is much more.
For example, my bladder insists on being emptied every 3 hours (day and night)
But it's not full; only a few ounces.
So I nap during the day to make up for the shortage at night. This interferes with my
computer time. And that annoys me.
Then my bad mood annoys my wife which causes further difficulties.
And so on....
Roger
Amit;
What's the holdup on 2021?
You said a couple of days.
Roger
Roger
1) Sorry , too much office work.
Unfortunately ( or fortunately) I am still working full time ,(10 to 6 pm) and get little time ,due to domestic works also.
Will do this week .( we have public holiday on 26th January and Saturday, Sunday also)
2) Every day ,first think in the morning, say thank you God for giving you one more day.Thank again to almighty (Jesus) that your wife is also with you this morning.
The antidote for bad mood is Gratitude. For five minutes in a day, take a note book and pen ( not on PC or laptop- as emotions have close relation with hand writing) and write down five things for which you are grateful today. Let it be small thing like bright sunshine ,or your eye sight or great years of your life at USGS ,as Seismology
Better still ,close your eyes while writing and visualize yourself on your working table at USGS.
Teach your wife also.
Attitude of Gratitude has instant effects on bad mood
Regards
Amit
Roger
Sorry ,I have diverted the topic from
Earthquake Prediction to -Stress Management
Two more things
1) Writing down five things for attitude of Gratitudes is more important than thinking of Gratitude. This is because, thinking is like atombomb -instant, uncontrol energy release while writing down is like nuclear reactor,which release energy slowly and in controlled fashion
2) why closing down eyes while writing?
Because you can visualize vividly the scene, like sitting on your working table at USGS ,3o years back.Who was sitting at your right hand site ,you can feel the office with all your senses. Moreover, you need not preserve the paper on which you are writing not even required to read it again
All work done while writing only
For more read my book
A GIFTED TOY II ,available on Amazon, flipkart and potho.com
Join my fb group
A GIFTED TOY II -Stress Management
Regards
Amit
Amit
Sorry but stress is not a problem for me. I'm retired, under no pressure and doing
what I most like online.
Roger
Amit;
Can you explain to me how I can send you a 20 page document listing every day from Jan 2021 to Jan 2024, every mag 6+ quake and a score for every prediction up to Feb 1922
It would help if we both had a copy to examine while posting.
Roger
Roger
1) If you have soft copy downloaded on your PC ,Check how many of MB the data is
2) Up to 25 MB in Gmail can be sent
3) If more Gmail will add G drive link
4) Alternatively, there are free ftp( file tranfer protocol sites ,which transfer files ,giving a link.
5) If you can make two parts less than 25 MB ,Email with two attachments or two separate e mails
Regards
Amit
Amit;
So, what do you have to say about it?
Roger
Amit;
Still waiting for your comments about my evaluation.
Roger
Roger
I am out of town for 4 days.Hence could not check
Nevertheless, as you have done it ,it should be correct
Regards
Amit
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