Can earthquakes be predicted?

Total Pageviews

Search This Blog

Powered By Blogger

Sunday, March 31, 2019

Earthquake Prediction for APRIL 19

Hi
Following are the probable dates for 6+ quakes in April 19,with window period + or - one day
1) 5th April 2019
2)12th April
3)18th April
4) 25th April
Amit

Sunday, March 03, 2019

Earthquake prediction for March 2019

Hi
The probable dates for earthquake in March 2019 are as follows
1) 7th.......6.3
2)15th.......6.4
3)21st.......6.8
4)28th.....6.6

The window period is + or - one day

Amit

Sunday, February 03, 2019

Earthquake prediction for February 2019

Hi
Sorry ,could not post dates in time ,till weekend .As the first week has lapsed  ,now the dates are as follows
1) 15th February ..6.4
2)19th February.....6.8
3) 28th February....6.3
Window period +or - one day
Amit

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Earthquake Prediction for January 2019

Hi
The probable dates for 6+ quakes for the month of January 2019 are as mentioned below

1)3rd Jan 2019.............6.5
2)6th Jan 2019.............7.2
3)21st Jan 2019...........7.3
4)31st Jan 2019...........6.4

Time window period is +or - one day
The dates 5th and 21st are strongest and may cross 7

Amit

Thursday, November 29, 2018

Problem with getting statestical odds of having 6+ quakes

Roger
As you have stated that odds of having 6+ quakes is 0.6 ,in window period of + or - one day.
 Now here are some facts
If I take period from 1-1- 2000 to 31-12 2015 ie 16 years ie 1946 windows of 3 days
Now as per USGS
1) 6 and 6+ quakes in 16 years are 2544
2)6.1+....  Quakes are 1975
3)6.2+..............1537
4)6.3+.........  1230
5)6.4+.......966
6)6.5+..........779

Thus odds are quakes/windows are
1.3, 1.01, 0.789 ,0.632, 0.496 , 0.410

Now , as per this ,there will alwaysbe a 6 or 6 .1+ quake in 3 day window . Which never happens

The problem with this stats is it does not take in to account clusters of quakes.
On a prone date there will be several 6+ quakes in one window ,
  I think ,correct picture will be arrived if we take one quake in window ,even though there are several.
Amit

Monday, November 26, 2018

Earthquake Prediction for December 2018

Hi
In December 2018 ,the quakes could be more powerful ,for the following reasons
1) Sun is closest to Earth on 23/24 the December
2) Sun is at Max Declinations south ,on22nd
and will move towards north after that
3)Moon is at closest distance on 24th
4) Mercury is closer and changing direction 7th
Probable dates for 6+ quakes with window period of +or - one day are

a)6th.......6.5
b)9th.......6.6
c)21st......6.8
d)24th....7.2

Infact ,there will be serise of major quakes between 21st to 24th.December

However ,any volcanic eruption between 21 to 24 may reduce the magnitude of quakes
Amit

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Results of Earthquake Prediction for year 2018, 2017,2016, 2015

Hi
 Each day , I will try to compile my predictions for  one year
odds of getting a hit date in window period of + or - one day is one in four ie 25% approx
Results shows that my predictions are far better than odds


YEAR 2018

For current year ,till 25th Nov , following are results

6+ quakes predicted ...---41 dates

Hit dates......------------26   ( 63.41%)
--------------------------------------------

YEAR 2017

Total dates predicted .........40
total hit dates.....................21
                                                (52.5%)

----------------------------------------------

YEAR 2016

Total dates predicted....43
Total hit dates..................30
                                  (69.76%)
______________________________________

YEAR 2015

Total dates predicted...........39

Total hit dates........................29

                                 (74.36%)
______________________________________