hi
As stated earlier,please note the dates for probable major earthquakes (7+). The window period will be + or - one day (UTC). Figures in brackets shows 7.5+ quake on that date only.
1) January 2011------19,25
2)February-----------19,21
3)March-------------- 20(7.5+)
4)April----------------3,17(7.5+)
5) May---------------16,29
6)June---------------9.12,15
7)July----------------1,9,31
8)August------------6(7.5+),13,30(7.5+)
9)September---------3(7.5+),12,16,28
10)October----------27(7.5+)
11) November-------24
12)December--------7,10,19,25(7.5+)
Total 28 dates hence 84 window dates ie 23.3 % of the year
There is one chance of 7+ on 4th January 2011.However as we are very close to window openiing that was not posted
Depending on cycle quakes ,occurring 7 days in advance, few dates may be modified (well in advance of window opening)
Please watch dates
Amit
70 comments:
hi
For those who wish to know 6+ quake dates also,please find cycle quake dates from the above dates.
for 6+ quakes probable dates add and deduct 7/8 days from the above dates.ie 6+ may occur before and after 7th and 8th day.
Amit
Anonymous
Here is one more proof of 7+ hit,chile(7.1),on 3rd December 2011, you may not consider ,if ,you wish. Nevertheless ,fact remains.
This is no hand waving technique please
regards
Amit
december or january?
4th January 2011 was predicted for 7+ quake
Amit
Hi Amit,
could you justify, i.e. write down the reason for picking those dates please? So as we all understand the thinking?
Thank you very much.
REMI
Amit;
For the 2011 predictions, when you say 7+ do you mean 7.0 to 9.9 or do you mean 6.7 to 9.9?
I refer to the +-0.3 rule
Roger
Roger
When I say
7+ it is ----6.7 to 7.5
7.5+ -------anything above 7.2 ( say 9.9)
Amit
Remi
the theory is already posted on this blog as well as on my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Amit
Hi Amit,
Oh I actually asked for which date refers to what effect.
For example 4th Jan (random) is due to solar eclipse etc etc
hi
For each date,some detailed expiation can be given,but it will take some time.
This is my part time hobby/ work,and now a days I have some overload at my office also
Amit
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Hi Amit,
Here are my prediction dates for 2011.
Jan 12, 16, 26
Feb 20
Mar 20, 26
Apr 3, 18
May 2, 19
Jun 2, 12
Jul 1, 9, 31
Aug 6, 30
Sep 4, 28
Oct 26
Nov 15, 25
Dec 10, 25
These are my 7+ Predictions +-0.5 ish.
For those predictions, here are back of the envelope calculations for randomness. As before assuming binomial distribution (debatable but hey this is the last of our problems) I give you the numbers for successes based on those distributions and for 26 trials I gave you. Assuming p=15/122 (For 7+ quakes from the average)
P( zero hits)= 3.3%
P( 1 hit)= 12.03%
P( 2 hits) = 21%
P(3 hits) = 23.6%
P(4 hits) = 19%
P(5 hits) = 11.7%
P(6 hits) = 5.7%
P(7 hits) = 2.3%
P(8 hits) = .77%
P(9 hits) = 0.1%
etc
(I will be happy to get 1 hit right ;-) ....)
Assuming in the above that we get 15 7+ quakes in the year. We will see about that, but if I get 5 hits from 15, that is 20%, which is more than the 11.7% the binomial gives as random, so there would be 'SKILL' in my predictions. Thats my thinking for now. If you agree let me know If not let us know again.....
Kind Regards,
Remi
hi
Now you can view my monthly earthquake predictions for 7+ quakes ,dirctly from the link mentioned at the righside of this blog. There are three dates mentioned in the calender.The middle one is the predicted date and + or - one day staes the window period of quake
Amit
hi
please see the link. Data compiled by an independent researcher
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/77895.html
Amit
hi
please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ for theory ,dates (calender) and links (earthquake forum)
Amit
hi
As we have a major quake (7+ ) on 3rd January 2011 and also as we have redictd one major on 18/19/20 th January 2011,there is a chance of quake ,6+, on 11th January 2011 (+ or - 1 day )
This is also as per quake cycle theory,( prone dates gives quakes on 7/8th before and after.
Amit
hi
Though 10/11 January 2011 are potent dates for 6+, as the Moon is at apogee on 10th , quakes may be less potent ie 5.8 to 6.1
Amit
hi
please note Vanuatu quake of 6.7 today ie 9th January 2011.
Yet another 6+ is expected on 10/11th December 2011
Amit
hi
please note my comment of cycle quakes for 6+ quakes.First comment below this blog.
I have predicted a major quake on 19th January 2011 (+ r - one day) Now we have a cycle quake of 6.5 at Bonn Island on 12/13th Night 2011.
This shows that ,rather this is a confirmation that a major quake is imminant on 19th January 2011
watch out
Amit
Hi Amit,
At 2 a.m., I have experienced an Earthquake in Noida, which seems to have an epicenter somewhere else. I don't know if it's a 7+ but things were certainly shaking quite a bit at our 2nd floor flat for around 10 seconds after which it died down.
Will check the news in the morning for an update on this.
This just in.
The epicenter of a 7.4 earthquake was in Pakistan
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12222081
hi
Thanks everybody.
All I want is people to believe ,that major earthquakes can be predicted to the date accuracy. Also that,there are reasons for major quake to occur ,other than plate tectonics
watch next dates 25/26th January 2011
Amit
Dear Amit ,
can u predict the location where these earth quick will happen.
hi
No , I can not predict places with accuracy as of now.However , if enough time and resources are deployed ,it is possible ,in principle
Amit
hi
the prediction for 6+ dates were done separately,on his blog.
3rd Feb 2011 was predicted for 6.2 quake .Actual quake of North East India on 4th Feb is 6.4
watch the accuracy
Next date 18/19th Feb 2011 -6.8
Amit
22 Feb 11, 6.3 in Chch NZ devastating the city and mass loss of life.
guess no one guessed the japan earthquake
so no one guessed the japanese earthquake last friday.
hi,its the 20th of march 2011 and well nuthing has happend yet. whats up with that?
March 24, 2011 5 days after super moon 7.5+ California
Sunspots, Super Moons,
major earthquake swarms...united states... west of mississipi river...majority southern cal. north to wash...oct 5, 2011...largest in southern cal
hi
Each months earthquake prediction will be given before start of the month.Though a consolidated list for year 2011 is already posted
http://earthquakepredictionbyamitdave.blogspot.com/
Amit
Hi
Correction
The quake of 29th May 2011 may not be more than 6.2
Instead the quake of
1st June 2011 Noon (UTC) to 2nd June 2011 Noon UTC) ---6.5+ -place not known
also see
htp://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ and go to -calender for June 2011
Amit
Hi
Watch June 9th and 12th quakes ,with window period of + or - one day.
We have Christchurch quake and Indonesia quake of 6.0 and 6.4 during this period.
Please watch June 15/16th 011 for quakes of 6.5+(place not known )
Amit
Hi
Volcano erupted on 2nd /3rd July 2011 in Indonesia
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-07/03/c_13962937.htm
Amit
HI
7.7 Quake at Kermadec Island on 6th (UTC) /7th July 2011 NZ time
watch the accuracy
Amit
Hi
As per cycle quake theory, saturn picking up accelartion, full Moon on 15th , and Jupiter squaring the Moon on 16th,there are fair chances of 6.5 quake on 15th July 2011(+ or - one ady and + or - 0.3 Magnitude)
hi
quakes of 6.0 ,off coast of Chile and 6.1 at Alaska are observed during 15/16th July 2011
The earthquakes and Volcanic eruption occurs ,due to the same reason. If the tidal pressure is more and if it finds the vent out( ie volcano mouth) it erupts.Thus ,it releases the built up pressure in side.Thus ,if on given date if volcano erupt ,the quakes will be of lesser magnitude than expected
Amt
hi
Please observe dates 30th /31st July 2011 for earthquakes of at least 6.5(place not known).Window period for time is + or - one day
It may also happen that,volcanic eruption occurs in this window period
Amit
hi
please note 6.7 quake at South of Fiji (07.45 UTC)on 29th July 2011,as predicted on 30th /31st July0
i expect one more 6.5 quake with in 48 hrs ie by 31st July Midnight(UTC)
As expected one more quake of 6.4 at Japan on 31st ie date hit prediction
Amit
hi
One more quake 6.1 at Vanuattu on 31st July 2011 s predicted.
In all three quakes in window period
Are these by chance or just a fluke or out of the hat predictions?
Any answers?
Amit
hi
One more quake on 31st July 2011.
6.8 at New Guinea
Amit
Hi
please see my blog.The date predicted for 65.+ quake was 30th /31st July 2011.with + or - one day window period
please note several 6.5+ quakes during these period
6.7 Fiji
6.4 Japan
6.8 New Guinea
6.1 Vanuattu
What are the odds of getting 6.5+ dtae hit?
Amit
Hi
please note Mt Etna erupted on 30th July 2011.The theory of Tidal pull and Momentum change states that
When the inside preessure (tidal pull ) increases and excede the limit,either it breaks the crust partially( hence earthquake occurs) or Can rupture the mouth of volcano completely and gives out eruption
So the dates predicted are prone to quakes as well as eruption.
In fact ,it can also induce cyclones,which is already discussed elsewhere in this blog as well as on web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Amit
hi
please see my monthly prediction for August 2011
Here are two major quakes
7.1 at Vanuatu on 20th August 1655
7.0 at Vanuatu on 20th August 1819
What do you think ,it is hit (7+) date or miss?The predicted date time and magnitude are as follows
22nd August at 0130 UTC and 7.0 magnitude
Your opinions are requested
While writing this ,I am aware that my predictions are for + or - one day window period( which are very stringent for 7.0 quake prediction and also that these quakes are just outside (6Hrs) window period
Amit
hi
The time frame for quakes are
1) 27th August 2011-----1130 UTC
2) 29th August 2011-----0430 UTc
3) 30th August 2011-----1430 UTC
The quake/s would be 7.0
Please oe during these days we may notice ,cyclones or/volcanic eruptions
PLACES ARE NOT KNOWN
Amit
hi
Here is one expected .6.8 quake at Banda sea on 30th August 2011 at 0657 UTC
Amit
hi
A 7.1 quake at Fox Island on 2nd September 2011 , as predicted.
A hit prediction
Amit
hi
One more quake
6.4 at Santiago on predicted date ie 2nd September 2011
How many date hit proofs are required?
Amit
hi
20th September 2011 is under observation for 6.3 to 6.6 quake
As Jupiter has changed the direction on 30th August 2011 and it is approching closer to Earth,(4AU units) each transit movememt(0,90 and 180 degrees) of Moon with Sun and Jupiter may cause quakes of 6+
If the Moon is closer on that date and /or it is at extreme declination the magnitude of quake will be consigerable
Amit
hi
One ore at Vanuattu,7.0 at midnight between 3rd and 4th September 2011.
Have anybody thought ,why there are so many 6.5+ quakes in last 3 days? OR It is by chance?
It was earlier pointed out that ,whenever bigger planets changes tha direction from direct to retro gate or vice a versa ,the chances og bigger quakes increases
Watch till September 2011 end,as Jupiter has changed the direction in first week if September
Amit
hi
Exactly as predicted , a quake of 6.4 occured at Tonga ,to day ,ie on 5th September 2011.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0005pa8.php
Please note the date and magnitude accuracy
Amit
HI
One more quake ,6.6 at Northen Sumatra on 5th September 2011
Watch the dates
Amit
hi
An earthquake ,4.2 ,occured at Delhi yesterday neight
Amit
hi
Mount Etna erupt again on the date predicted ie 9th September.
Some of the dates are prone to major quakes ( all over the globe) as well as volcanic eruptions
http://www.itv.com/news/etna-erupts-again24825/
AMit
hi
Now when we have 6.4 quake at Vancouver on 9th September 2011, the quake on 16th is almost certain (6.5-place not known )
This is termed by me as cycle quake theory.
On prone months major quakes occurs after every 7 to 7 and half days.
This is because Moon( the main trigger) acquires another potent position (90 degrees apart ) after every 7-7.5 days
Amit
Remi
Yes.2nd September 2011 was predicted
please see
http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/2011/08/earthquake-predicion-for-september-2011.html
or look at the right side of this blog and go for September 2011 prediction
Yes. You are right . I am convinced that most of the major quakes (6.5+) can be predicted with considerable accuracy.
Also I am convinced that , if some 30 to 35 odd dates per year are selected ( which are most prone to quakes),almost 90% of damaging quakes can be predicted
The only problem is pin pointing locations. If time accuracy is with in half an Hour , may be location ,as per resultant pull can be fixed
I am working on , as to whether we can locate a band of longitude or latitude,for the day and + or - 4 t 6 Hrs
I believe ,it is possible ,in principle. The point is we have to put in enough resources both in terms of time and money.
May be some day Government, seismology departments and NGO
realize this
Amit
hi
I shall give reasons for possible quakes till September end 2011.
Let us observe which criteria is more potent
We have pre requisites of major planet (jupiter) changing the direction is full filled ,till September end
Now
1)16th September
at 1400 UTC Jupiter and Moon Coisides.
2)20th September- Moon at Maximum
declination and Moon at 90 degrees to Sun
3)27th September-
New Moon,Moon at Perigee(closest-57.1ER-Earth Radious), Moon Venus Conjuction, Moon at Equater on 26th
Hence, looking at the strenght, 27th September 2011 will give major quake
Amit
hi
I shall give reasons for possible quakes till September end 2011.
Let us observe which criteria is more potent
We have pre requisites of major planet (jupiter) changing the direction is full filled ,till September end
Now
1)16th September
at 1400 UTC Jupiter and Moon Coisides.
2)20th September- Moon at Maximum
declination and Moon at 90 degrees to Sun
3)27th September-
New Moon,Moon at Perigee(closest-57.1ER-Earth Radious), Moon Venus Conjuction, Moon at Equater on 26th
Hence, looking at the strenght, 27th September 2011 will give major quake
Amit
hi
I believe there is a strong link between major earthquakes and Volcano eruptions (any where in the world)
The explation is like this
On the prone date for major quake, the tidal pull is more.When the pull exceeds a limit ,it breaks the crust (the semi solid magma under pull-high tide like one in oceans) and the quakes occurs
On the same day ,as the Earth moves in Orbit and along axis, the pull may come under mouth of volcano, and may break open the mouth on the same day
This is why we notice some of the volcano erupting along with major quakes some where else
Amit
hi
Strong Earthquakes,6.0+ at Japan ,Cuba
Predicted date is 16th September 2011
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/5634713/Earthquakes-off-Japan-Cuba
Accuracy is + 0r - one day
In fact, there could be few more quakes tomorrow ie 16th September 2011
AMit
wow.. u r so close .. Earthquake in Sikkim on 18th..
hi
Thanks.keep watching
Amit
hi
A major Typhoon hit China between 27/28th (landfall),4,70,000 evacuated and caused and 31 US $ loss to China
http://in.news.yahoo.com/470-000-evacuated-typhoon-nesat-lashes-china-201524621.html
Time and again it is proved that ,the some dates are prone to Natural disasters
AMit
hi
For November 2011 prediction ,pl see my November 2011 predictions on this blog as well as on my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ and go to calender
Though it is not possible to pin point places of quakes as of now, the date and approximate magnitude can be predicted
Unfortunately ,seismologist in general and USGS in particular believes that quake can not be predicted and there is only one theory that can explain quakes is plate tectonics-
Those who speaks against the proclaimed theory are either ridiculed or ignored ,forget giving any help or aid for that
Next date (probable) for quakes of 6+ are
10th ,13th and 25/26th November 2011
Amit
hi
The unusual quakes at Oklahoma ,including 5.7 to day ie 5th November are part of predicted date of 4th (on my web page http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
and go to calender
Amit
Pl see my November 2011 predictions on this blog
Where 10th amd 13 th Nov is given as probable
dates.
We have 6.9 quake at Taiwan to day ie 8th Nov
I expect one more quake between 9th to 13th
(place not known)
hi
Here are the actaul quakes (7+) as against predicted dates for the year 2011 ,till October 2011
1) January
Prediction date -------------actual dates and quake
4th------------------2nd at 2020Hrs UTC----7.2
2)April
8th-----------------7th at 1432 Hrs--7.1
3)July
9th------------------6th at 1903 Hrs---7.6
10th---------------7.0
4)August
22nd----------------20th at 1819 Hrs-----7.1
5)September
5th-------------------3rd at 2255 Hrs UTC---7.0
16th-----------------15th -----7.3
6)October
22/23rd-------------21st--------7.4
23rd--------7.2
Thus there are 9 Hits of 7+ quakes
If you do not consider little inaccurcy of 2/3 Hrs ,there are 5 dot hits (+ or - one day window and 7+)
There are 19 quakes of 7+ during January to October 2011(incluning clusters)
The average number of 7+ quakes per year are 15
thus odds are 15/120----120 because ,total days 360/ 3 day window period
ie 1/8 ie one in eight or 0.125
Now 9 hits out of 19 is 9/19 0.473
Even if we consider 5 hit out of 19 it comes to
5/19 ie 0.263
Both way it is above random date selection or average occurances(even after taking in to account cluster of quakes)
Amit
hi
please note three major quakes ,two on predictwed date (24th November 2011) at Japan and one in Bolivia(6.6) on 22 nd November 2011
watch the accuracy
Amit
hi
For detailed (with time ) prediction for the month of December 2011 is posted on this blog ( frsh blog )please search for-earthquake prediction for December 2011- or look at the right side of this blog
Amit
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