hi
Due to some unavoidable work, I could not calculate the probable dates for August 2013, in advance.
After some preliminary calculations, it is observed that, there are no strong enough positions to induce 7+ quakes.
The only probable date is
17th August 2013....................6.4 (+ or -0.3)
Date window is + or - one day
Amit
Due to some unavoidable work, I could not calculate the probable dates for August 2013, in advance.
After some preliminary calculations, it is observed that, there are no strong enough positions to induce 7+ quakes.
The only probable date is
17th August 2013....................6.4 (+ or -0.3)
Date window is + or - one day
Amit
26 comments:
Ok
Lack of sunspots, also lack of power, no large quakes of over 6.
Last M6+ quake was on a Beta Gamma Delta sunspot over the other side of the sun.
A few small coronal holes, a few M5+ quakes.
Sunspots AR11016 and AR11614 are weak and passing.
A large coronal hole is in transit and influences the moon shortly, there is some heavier activity from new sunspots on the verge of being viewable from earth.
The real test will be when an actual strong sunspot falls on the moons position.
I don't think we can write off a heavier quakes to be honest.
Be safe
Jazzman :)
Ok there ya go....sunspot Increase, moon in vaccinate and a M5.7, M6.0 and M6.1
Another New spot building just above the suns equator, not numbered yet, one to watch
12/8/2013
Be safe
Jazzman :)
Ok, sunspot cluster moved across the sun, we did get the heavy quake off the un-designated region i said watch for , a M6.6,at present we have a lonely sunspot 11820, and the un-designated region i mention which is also moving across the sun.
shall see how the next few days go, in regards to sunspots and new quakes.
Be safe
Jazzman :)
Should be interesting to see what happens with the moon as it chases the coronal hole on the left hand side of the sun, the moon is coming up behind it, at what speed in comparison? we will see, but as it passes over/close too, we should see an uptake in power of quakes as the moon gets influenced by the magnetic field lines between the coronal hole and sunspots around it.
At present, the main set are to the right, watch out for new holes to the left, coming up behind the moons position.
The 14th (first quarter) see the moon on the left, the full moon falls on August 20, 2013 at 06:45:06 PM (Sun centered)
Be safe
Jazzman :)
Boss . . . you are right . . . just felt 6.9 followed by 5.6
More predictions please.
Roger
Todays (17th Aug 2013) 6.7 quake is one more proof.
Now , How am I convinced that , my prwdictions are below averages and that I should not waste my time on this hobby.
I would immediately quit once I am conviced I am wasting my time.
I feel there are some issues ,which comes while statestically evaluating my prediction like
1) cluster taken in averaging
2) catalog errors ie two reknowed institites earthquake data base not matching
3) Most important is fine tuning. all calcuations.
I thing I am not able to explain the exact fine tunibg mathod to you.It has become like art more than calculations.
I throw open the issue to readers of my blog as to wheter I should continue doing work or stop wasting my time.
In fact , It is non payimng , time consuming and eating away all my week ends,holidays and make me work late in the night. I need to upload from
my mobile while travelling in Mumbai subrban packed local trains ( which I am doing right now)
All openions are appriciated
Amit
Keep posting :)
your welcome :)
Amit, you have made your hobby a job, step back and chill some .
keep things simple and dont stress .
be safe
Jazzman :)
Definitely keep doing what you are doing. People need this valueable information! I think its amazing.
Do you know if there are any more quakes in NZ for August? What about Sept?
Hi, please keep posting, your work is appreciated.
Except take time off for holidays! Today 16th August 2013 ( for us in New Zealand ) we had a 6.2 earthquake close to Wellington, New Zealand. So to me your prediction was spot on. Thank you for your posts and the work you do to bring them.
Hi
pl see to days (17th August ) quake of 6.1 at south Indian ridge
pl note the accuracy of date and magnitude , right on spot
Amit
Your workings are just the same as the full/new moons + a couple of days either side of the half moons as i said the other week.
You waste your time on something obvious
David
David
No. you are under wrong impression.
It would have been better ,if you have gone through the basic theory and guide lines.
Phases of Moon is a only one of the trigger.
Amit
no sorry , i am not.
new moon , full moon and 2 saway from first and last quarter (either side is more than efficient.
There is no need to work out planets etc, if a earthquake falls on one of these days, thats all that counts
David
David
If so all 7+ quake should fall on full moon and new moon.
You are missing two more potent triggers ie moon at perigee(closest) and moon at maximum declinations(north and south)
I have base cacluations manuscript of hundreds of major quakes.
yes Full moon and new are triggers especially if moon at perigee on that day.
Pl check some 7+ quakws of past
Amit
??? why and who said all quakes should fall on a new/full moon .
They can come at any time, watch towards the end of the year and Comet ISON , that should shake things up, (Excuse the pun )
I have never read of any times where you have called a M7+ earthquake? , the only person to do that 3 times was Jazzman , he even gave you the websites so you could expand on his work ,as had not the time , you neglected them and carried on mirroring the moon phases.
Your ways miss many earthquakes, this is shown in this very string of posts, Jazzman said ....."I don't think we can write off a heavier quakes to be honest.
result- "Ok there ya go....sunspot Increase, moon in vaccinate and a M5.7, M6.0 and M6.1"
There was also another M6 in there also.
Then-
Another New spot building just above the suns equator, not numbered yet, one to watch
12/8/2013
Be safe
result- "Ok, sunspot cluster moved across the sun, we did get the heavy quake off the un-designated region i said watch for , a M6.6"
A M6.6! (13th) you are telling people that there wont be any M7s , only a M6.6-+ 3 on the 17th (A trigger day ), Jazzman warned us on the 12th.
He then mentions more trouble looming, this falls on a - 1 day of your theory.
Only one of them that you mention
, your way is only minuscule when we are talking about multiple dates, and for the work you put in trying to justify is just plain crazy.
You are stuck in a rut having put a lot of work into your theory ,you are neglecting to change with the times .
David
David
I am surprised with your comments.Do you think I am competing anybody,yourselfor jazzman for that matter.
You should have gone through the theory and predictions over. past at least 5 years before commrnting so harshly.
you must have seen atleast my last prediction ie April 17th ,and actual quakes of same magnitude(window margin)
OK.If you are so much unhappy with my theory and working,let us part ways
Good bye and take care
regards
Amit
My apologies, have a lot on my mind, have been nasty to quite a few people/friends lately, had no right to rubbish any ones work.
Am being a right s**t at the moment, need to step away from everyone for the moment .
As you say the main aim is to warn of Earthquakes regardless of frequency.
peace, my apologies again
David.
David
Thank you so much
regards
Amit
Glad you guys made up. Now maybe we can all focus again on why we are here in the first place. Amit, do you think there will be another bigger quake within the next few weeks/months?
Hi Amit, Great blog post. Any predictions for the next few days/weeks? Obviously Seddon/Wellington, New Zealand had a big 6.6 jolt last Friday 16 August. Any idea if anything to follow soon? Thanks my friend
Hi
In all fairness, besides David being a bit harsh, you have on numerous occasions challenged people with your dates Sir, he basically said you miss many quakes, just like today, a 6.2, and one that fell directly on land in populated areas.
A full moon+ 1 day.
5 M6+ Quakes this month have been missed by yourself so far.
Just saying
Paul
Paul
Yes, you are right. all quakes are not captured. Also,this is full Moon + one day ( actually not even complete one day).
full moon and new Moon days are one of the triggers of quakes,provided the dates have some potential
Amit
Amit'
You missed a 7.0 near Adak on Aug 30.
Roger
Roger
You can still check the trigger
It is within +or- 12 hrs of Moon Maximum declination
Amit
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