Second pase Prediction evaluation rules

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COMPARISON – FINAL SCORING RULES (Effective April–June 2026) 1. Data Source and Event Definition All earthquake information will be taken from the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Only earthquakes of Magnitude 6.0 and above (M6+) will be considered. Event time will follow USGS origin time (UTC) with seconds accuracy. Earthquakes occurring anywhere on the globe and at any depth will be considered. 2. Prediction Dates Each participant must publish four (4) fixed prediction dates for the month. These dates must be published on or before the 28th day of the previous month (UTC). Once published, prediction dates cannot be changed during that month. Example: For April predictions, dates must be published on or before 28 March (UTC). 3. Prediction Window For each predicted date D, the valid evaluation window will be: D − 1 day, D, and D + 1 day (UTC) Example: Prediction = 10 April Window = 9 April, 10 April, 11 April (UTC). 4. Exact Date Hit Score MagnitudeScore6.0 – 6.9+57.0 – 7.4+107.5 and above+15 An exact hit occurs when the earthquake happens on the predicted date (UTC). 5. Window Hit Score MagnitudeScore6.0 – 6.9+37.0 – 7.4+57.5 and above+10 A window hit occurs when the earthquake happens on D−1 or D+1. 6. Miss Penalty MagnitudePenalty6.0 – 6.9−17.0 – 7.4−37.5 and above−5 Two types of misses are defined: (a) Prediction Miss: If no qualifying earthquake occurs within the prediction window (D−1, D, D+1), the prediction is considered a miss and the above penalty applies. (b) Unpredicted Earthquake: If an earthquake of M6.0 or higher occurs outside all prediction windows, a penalty will be applied according to the same scale above. Each such earthquake will be treated as a separate miss event. 7. Scoring Method Scores will be updated daily based on UTC dates. A running total score will be maintained throughout the month. 8. Experiment Duration Phase 1: March 2026 – evaluation using the original rules already in use. Phase 2: Revised rules (this sheet) will apply for: • April 2026 • May 2026 • June 2026 9. Transparency Prediction dates must be published in advance. Rules remain frozen during each month. Results will be publicly documented. 10. Multiple Earthquakes in a Window If more than one M6.0+ earthquake occurs within a prediction window, each earthquake will be scored separately according to the rules. Example: Two earthquakes M6.1 and M6.5 on the predicted date → +5 +5 = +10. 11. USGS Catalog Authority The USGS Earthquake Catalog will be the only official reference for magnitude, origin time, and location. If USGS later revises the magnitude of an earthquake (for example from M6.0 to M5.8), the score will be adjusted according to the revised catalog value. 12. Open Participation This exercise is open to anyone who wishes to participate. Members of the public, researchers, or seismologists in particular may submit four (4) prediction dates for the month, following the same rules and deadlines. 13. Seismic Sequence Rule (Mainshock and Aftershocks) If a large earthquake produces a sequence of related earthquakes (aftershocks), scoring from that seismic sequence will be limited to a maximum of three earthquakes of M6.0 or higher. The largest earthquake in the sequence (mainshock) will always be counted. Up to two additional M6+ earthquakes from the same sequence may also be counted if they fall within valid prediction windows. A seismic sequence is defined as earthquakes occurring: • within 300 km of the mainshock epicenter, and • within 30 days after the mainshock.