Major Earthquake prediction riles and open compitation

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COMPARISON – FINAL SCORING RULES (Effective April–June 2026 PART I- Rules 1. Data Source and Event Definition All earthquake information will be taken from the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Only earthquakes of Magnitude 6.0 and above (M6+) will be considered. Event time will follow USGS origin time (UTC) with minutes accuracy. Earthquakes occurring anywhere on the globe and at any depth will be considered. 2. Prediction Dates Each participant must publish four (4) fixed prediction dates for the month. These dates must be published on or before the 29th day of the previous month (UTC). However ,a participant can give date and UTC time simultaneously. It means ,the time window is + or - 12 hrs from the time ,in UTC, Once published, prediction dates and time cannot be changed during that month. Example: For April predictions, dates must be published on or before 29th March (UTC). 3. Prediction Window Thre is no window period if date is given in UTC with no time mentioned. There will be a + or - 12 hrs window if the date and time in UTC both are given by any participant 4. Only Date Hit prediction are counted as hit ( All dates ate as per UTC) A 6 and above quake in + or - 12 hrs ,if the date and time both are mentioned by a participant( All dates and Time are as per UTC) Scores will ba as mentioned below 6.0 – 6.9....+5 marks 7.0 – 7.4...+10 marks 7.5 and above.. +15 marks 5. Window Hit. As the evaluation is done on date hit predictions only ( UTC date) ,there is no window hit and window marks if only dates are given. However ,if date and time ( UTC ) both are given ,the window is + or - 12 hrs from the date and time ,in UTC ,given by a participant 6. Miss Penalty Magnitude Penalty A) False Alarm penalry 6.0 – 6.9..−1 marks 7.0 – 7.4...−3 marks 7.5 and above....−5 marks If no qualifying earthquake occurs within the prediction date ( of only date is given) and within + or -12 hrs if time in UTC of dare is also given.the prediction is considered a miss. B) If a qualifying earthquake occur out side the date predicted ( UTC date) or outside + or -12 hrs window if time in UTC is also given,there will be penalty of -1 for all 6 and above quakes 7. Scoring Method Scores will be updated daily based on UTC dates.and UTC time A running total score will be maintained throughout the month. 8. Experiment Duration Phase 1: March 2026 – evaluated using the original rules already in use. Phase 2: Revised rules (this sheet) will apply for: April 2026 May 2026 June 2026 9. Transparency Prediction dates must be published in advance. Rules remain frozen during each month. Results will be publicly documented. 10. Multiple Earthquakes in a Window If more than one M6.0+ earthquake occurs within a prediction date / window of + or - 12 hrs, each earthquake will be scored separately according to the rules. Example: Two earthquakes M6.1 and M6.5 on the predicted date → +5 +5 = +10. 11. USGS Catalog Authority The USGS Earthquake Catalog will be the only official reference for magnitude, origin time, and location. If USGS later revises the magnitude of an earthquake (for example from M6.0 to M5.8), the score will be adjusted / corrected according to the revised catalog value. 12. Open Participation This exercise is open to anyone who wishes to participate. Members of the public, researchers, or seismologists in particular may submit four (4) prediction dates for the month, following the same rules and deadlines. 13. Seismic Sequence Rule (Mainshock and Aftershocks) If a large earthquake produces a sequence of related earthquakes (aftershocks), scoring from that seismic sequence will be limited to a maximum of three earthquakes of M6.0 or higher. The largest earthquake in the sequence (mainshock) will always be counted. Up to two additional M6+ earthquakes from the same sequence may also be counted if they fall within valid prediction windows. A seismic sequence is defined as earthquakes occurring: • within 300 km of the mainshock epicenter, and on + or - 12 hrs from mainshock PART II Actual prediction dates I) Chat GPT 5, 11, 18, 27 II) Gemini 4, 11, 19 ,26 III) Claude.AI 5, 12 20 ,27 IV) Google Open AI 4, 11 ,23 ,29