hi
Here are the probable dates for 6+ quakes
1)4th November 2014............6.3
2)7th/8th ...............................6.4
3)23rd....................................6.5
4)28th...................................6.4
window period + or - 1 day
magnitude window + or - 0.3
7th /8th means from 12noon UTC 7th to 12 Noon UTC 8th
Amit
Here are the probable dates for 6+ quakes
1)4th November 2014............6.3
2)7th/8th ...............................6.4
3)23rd....................................6.5
4)28th...................................6.4
window period + or - 1 day
magnitude window + or - 0.3
7th /8th means from 12noon UTC 7th to 12 Noon UTC 8th
Amit
29 comments:
hi
pl note quake of 6.2 on 3rd Nov at Mid Atlantic ridge
The previous one was 7.1 on 1st Nov 2014 at Fiji
The point here to be noted is the difference in the data by two web sites regarding Perigee of Moon.
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar
and
http://astropixels.com/ephemeris/moon/moonperap2001.html
one says Moon is closest on 1st Nov 2014 and the other site says it is on 3rd Nov
This is how I missed 1st Nov quake
Amit
Amit;
I use only the NEIC solutions.
There were 2 6+ quakes on the 1st of Nov so I have 14 hits and you have none.
Roger
Amit;
That 7/8 business confuses me.
We're using a 3 day window so noon 7 to noon 8 is one day, noon 8 to noon 9 is a second day, noon 6 to noon 7 is the third day. That makes the window lopsided.
Roger
Amit;
Quake on the 6th so I have 28 hits and you have one.
Percentage wise neck and neck 1/4 and 28/120. Just chance either way.
Roger
Amit;
Quake on the 10th. I have 30 hits to your one.
Roger
Amit;
That's actually 41 hits out of 120 predictions.
Roger
Roger
so it is hardly 30%.Well below 80% mark.so that it can be said -anybody can predict quakes-
Amit
Amit;
It's over 33% so far compared to your 25%.
Chance is beating you this month.
Roger
Amit;
It's over 33% so far compared to your 25%.
Chance is beating you this month.
Roger
Amit;
7.1 quake today. You missed it, many of mine got it.
Roger
Roger
yes. I misjudged, Moon Jupiter combination
Nevertheless, it follows the rule of 7and half day pattern
7/8th ,(14/15th Nov) and 23rd Nov
Amit
Roger
In fact it is series of cycle quakes starting from
1st......6.0 and 7.1
7th.......6.6
15th......7.1
Hence the next could be 22nd /23rd/24th
to be more specific
1)22nd.....12.32 UTC
20 degree East to 20 degree west
160 degree east to 180 degree east
2)24th...8.17 UTC...
80 degree east to 110 degree east
80 degree west to 110 degree west
Amit;
If you predict 3 day windows 7 days apart you will be correct - about half the time because that's how many days are covered.
It's also possible to be totally wrong or totally right because only half the days are covered.
Roger
Roger
You often,misinterpret what I say,
First and foremost thing required is a potent combination
Once a quake strikes (or eruption occurs) on that potent date, 7 and half day cycle quakes stars
However,this is not a permanent phenomena ,once the potency of combination becomes weak( often in 3 to 4 weeks),cycle quakes stops
Whenever another potent date arrives,second round of cycle quake starts
Amit
Amit;
Your potent dates do not work and a 7 day cycle is too regular.
Another researcher in Greece use the fibonacci series in a similar fashion and that makes more sense as aftershocks are frequent early on and taper off with time.
Roger
Roger
I am not talking of aftershocks at the same place.
Cycle quakes can occur anywhere depending upon the line of resultant pull acting on Earth at that time
Amit
Amit;
Ok but you wouldn't reject a mag 6+ aftershock would you?
Roger
Amit;
Two more 6+ quakes today bringing my total up to 59/120, almost 50% to your 25%.
Roger
Roger
wait. why so much haste. We are here for at least six months records
Amit
Amit;
Just keeping up to date. We're 2.5 months into it already.
Looking at past posts I see you wanted 6.2+ quakes, not 6+. Do you still want that limit?
Roger
Roger
it is 6.1 and above
Amit
Hi
pl note today Japan earthquake and accuracy of my prediction.
predicted date 22nd Nov at 12.32 UtC 6.1 and above and at 160 to 180 E.
Actual quake Date ,time and magnitude match exactly .Place is 20 degree away
watch the accuracy.
Amit
Amit;
Mag 7.0 in Indonesia today (26th)
Score is now 30 with 4 each, a perfect score by chance.
You missed it.
Roger
Amit;
I see they've downgraded that 7.0 to a 6.8 but no matter, the score is still the same.
Roger
Roger
Yes . Sometimes for covering two triggers ,I select a date which is in middle of two triggers and hence some errors.
Hence forth I will stick to the date of trigger itself
As for example .
On 26th Mars is at Maximum Declination and Joins Moon which is closer.
And Moon at Perigee on 27th at 23.11 UTC.
However to cover both triggers Moon at perigee on 27th and Moon at Equator on 29/30th ,I selected 28th
Nevertheless, I still expect one mor 6.1+ quake between 27th to 29th
Note-
I will be busy attending my wife ( who is to be operated for hernia on 28th) from tomorrow till 3rd or 4th December.
Hence,may not be able to post till 4th/5th Dec
Amit
Amit;
No problem.
Best wishes for your wife.
Roger
Hi
Mount Asho in southern Japan erupted on 28th/29th after 22 years ,posing threats to nearby Airports
Now, time and again I have mentioned that ,as per my theory Earthquakes and Volcanic eruption are interlinked.Explaination given below
In a nutshell my theory says Quakes and eruption occurs due to pressure builtup on magma/lava due to tidal pull beyond certain limits.
As the tidal pull creats hightides and low tides in oceans, it also creats hightide and lowtide pull on the magma/lava below the earth crust.
If the pull acts over fault line a quake occurs and if it acts on Volcano mouth it can rip open the volcano mouth and eruption occurs.
Both occurs due to the same tidal pull.
If some of the internal pressure is released due to eruption ,the quakes may be of smaller intensiry.
So my predicted dates are prone to eruption also
In fact,extended version of theory suggests cyclones can also be linked to the dates
Amit
Amit;
The mantle is not liquid. The pressure of the rock above prevents it.
Your theory is wrong.
Roger
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