Roger
Here are the results of my September results as against your 30 random dates
Total 6+ quakes...5
My results.. 3 hits out of 4
results of 30 random dates are as follows
1 hit.........6
2 hits........12
3 hits........10
4 hits.......2
...............
total........30
Now 10 +2 = 14 are better than my results out of 30. ie not even 50%
If my predictions are below odds ,at least 75% or more should be better than my dates
Amit
Here are the results of my September results as against your 30 random dates
Total 6+ quakes...5
My results.. 3 hits out of 4
results of 30 random dates are as follows
1 hit.........6
2 hits........12
3 hits........10
4 hits.......2
...............
total........30
Now 10 +2 = 14 are better than my results out of 30. ie not even 50%
If my predictions are below odds ,at least 75% or more should be better than my dates
Amit
12 comments:
Amit;
The most common number of hits in my random series was 3.
You got 3 as well.
Just chance.
Roger
Roger
The most common here is 2 hits and not three
Amit
Amit;
Ooops!
I had quakes on 3,6,9,17 and 24
Now it says 4,6,10,17,24,25 and 25
I'll recount.
Roger
Amit;
The odds on getting a hit with a mag 6+ quake in a 3 day window are 0.573 so 2 hits are expected.
However, the odd on getting 3 hits in 4 tries are only slightly better than chance.
Small samples are deceptive.
Roger
Amit;
What makes you think 75% should do better than you by chance?
Roger
Roger
when you say ,anybody can beat my predictions,in fact it should be more than 80% of random dates
Amit
Amit;
Why?
Any result is possible by chance. It's just that some are less likely than others.
You got 3/4 but 3 of mine got 4/4 by chance.
Roger
Roger
When you say ,"anybody can beat you,"it has to be more than 80%
You may have to modify the statement
like this
"some may do better than you ,by chance"
Amit
Amit;
No it doesn't. "Anybody" doesn't mean "everybody" or even a "majority" of others.
Roger
Roger
It appears to me you are saying
"head you win, tail I Loose"
Amit
Roger
October 2014 evaluation is not seen done by you
Amit
Amit;
Posted under your October predictions.
Roger
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