Hi
The reason we have some major quakes in September and October 2018 is both Venus and Mars are closer to Earth. Besides Venus will change direction on 5th Oct 2018.
Further Venus ,Mars and Saturn are at their extreme declinations.
Thus we may also find some major quakes in October 2018
5th........7.0
9th.......6.8
11th......6.6
18th......6.9
25th......6.7
Amit
The reason we have some major quakes in September and October 2018 is both Venus and Mars are closer to Earth. Besides Venus will change direction on 5th Oct 2018.
Further Venus ,Mars and Saturn are at their extreme declinations.
Thus we may also find some major quakes in October 2018
5th........7.0
9th.......6.8
11th......6.6
18th......6.9
25th......6.7
Amit
27 comments:
Hi
As a standard protocol, I never edit once the dates have been published,even though, window period has not yet started(window period is +or -one day)
However, I post it again,keeping the old data
Here ,after detailed verification ,I would like to make following changes for October 2018 prediction
1) instead of 5th...change to 4th
2)Add 15th October
Amit
Ahaa, its good discussion regarding this paragraph at this place at this website,
I have read all that, so now me also commenting
here.
Hurrah, that's what I was searching for, what a data!
present here at this weblog, thanks admin of this website.
Hi
From today ie 3rd to 5th October ,the dates are very potent for major quake.
As cycle quake theory ,a second quake of 6+ is possible,where we had 7+ quake a week before
Amit
Hi
We have a major volcanic eruption at Indonesia to day ( predicted date)
This may sound strange and people may object what I say here
I have even mentioned this earlier (Roger may vouch for the same)
My potent dates are also potent for volcanic eruption and even major cyclone.
Volcanic eruption can occur when the tidal pull exceed the limit and the pull is directly under volcanic mouth.
If the pressure inside breaks the plates it is a quake and if it break open the mouth of a volcano ,it will be an eruption
But for both there should be a potent date
Further, once an eruption occurs the potency of date is reduced to great extend ,as the pressure is released .Hence quakes will not be of a high magnitude ,which is expected
Amit
Amit;
Yes, you have mentioned volcanos in the past and the quake in question is in your window.
The problem is that I have no good way to determine the probability of an eruption.
I have not included them in past evaluations due to limited information historically.
Also, each factor you include raises the probability of success and thereby lowers the score for a hit.
Roger
Roger
This is what volcanologist also think
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/science/2018/10/03/indonesia-earthquake-and-volcanic-eruption-they-related/1513205002/
Roger
I would go a step further and give a statement like this..
-On most potent days ,if we can manage to
open up the mouth of a volcano in remote area, major 7.5+ quakes can be avoided
Amit
Amit;
You're going too far. The article only went as far as "maybe".
Roger
Hi
Several major quakes on 10th Oct 2018.A hit prediction.
6.3,7.0 at Indonesia and 6.3 at Russia
All in one day
Now some questions for all seismologist
1) Is this a potential date or just quake due to stress on plates
2)Are these two plates ie Indonesia and Russia connected in any way
3)Why after shock at Indonesia is bigger than main Quake
4) Is the quakes at Indonesia have anything to do with 14/15 day back quake and tsunami, what I have already termed and predicted as cycle quakes-
5)Do we have to believe plate tectonics blindlty
Any answers
Amit
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1029544/earthquake-forecast-us-geological-survey-planet-alignment
Watch this
Two cyclones Michael (USA) and Titli ( East coast India) are set to strike today.
Watch the prone dates are capable of inducing Eruption as well as Cyclone
Amit
Hi
Two major quakes at new Caledonia today ie on 16th early morning, a hit prediction.
How many hits are required to prove the point
Amit
Amit;
So far you have 1/5 predictions correct and 5/12 quakes correct.
Below chance.
As usual.
Roger
Hi
6.8 quake near Greece on 25th,a date hit prediction
Watch accuracy
Amit
Amit;
2/5 predictions correct, 6/13 quakes in windows.
Below chance now and can only get worse if more quakes this month.
If you keep claiming hits I'll have to keep setting the record straight.
Roger
Roger
I will give you a correct picture
Total dates predicted 7 ( check addition ,correction below post)
Total 6+ quakes ...17 in month till today
Hits ....4 out of 7
Dates.9th,10th,16th,25th
Total quakes in window..9 out of 17
So,please Roger give correct picture
I am aware, you are strictly against any theory ,which do not support plate tectonics.
But have an open review
Regards
Amit
Amit;
You named 5 dates; 5,9, 11,18, and 25 with 3 day windows.
Normally that would be 15 days but due to overlap it's 14 days (I miscounted).
Only 2 windows contained quakes (you can't count twice where overlap is involved)
(another miscount on my part)
So 6/13 quakes, 2/5 predictions. So far...
I'm not against any theory which works. Yours doesn't.
Roger
Roger
Pl check the first post below original post ,check correction
Total predicted dates 6 ( neither 5 nor 7)
Hit ...3
Total quakes...17
Quakes in window.....9
Amit
Amit;
I only find 13 quakes. Where are you getting 17?
Dates are 2, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 13, 16, 16, 22, 22, 22, 25
You got 8/13 quakes in 3/6 windows.
Roger
Amit;
Quake today (28th) makes it worse for you; 8/14 quakes, 3/6 windows.
Coin toss odds.
Just chance.
Roger
Amit;
And another quake today making your score 8/16 quakes and 3/6 predictions.
Coin toss odds.
Roger
Amit;
As an aside, the odds on a mag 6+ quake somewhere in the world within a 3 day window are 0.53 just as the odds on getting heads on a random coin toss are 0.50
Roger
Roger
The odds calculated on statestical data is misleading. It takes all quakes ,ie multiple quakes on single day ,for calculating odds.
Say if there are six quakes of 6+,it will counts six quakes for arivarri at total. Where as if there are six quakes on my dates ,it is counted as one hit only
Correct picture would be like this
Take only one 6+quake for the dateeven if there are multiple quakes
Make total of such quakes and divide by windows
You will get correct odds
Or
Take multiple quakes ,if occurs ,on my date as multimedia and not one
Amit
Roger
Sorry
Posting this while on my morning walk.
There are some typographical errors.
Sorry ,once again
Amit
Amit;
There's a difference between quakes and windows. Say there are 16 quakes in a month
and 4 windows.
4 of the quakes are in one window, the rest are not in any window.
The score is 1/4 windows, 4/16 quakes.
You do not get credit for multiple hits unless you predict them.
Roger
Amit;
The reason for not crediting multiple hits unless predicted is due to the changing odds.
A hit on a 6+ quake in a 3 day window is 0.53 as I said but that's for one quake.
If you have 4 quakes the odds are 0.53^4 or .079 which is worth a LOT more.
Thus to get that sort of credit you must state how many hits will happen. The danger in doing
so is that missing the count lowers your score drastically.
Roger
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