Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Monday, April 03, 2023

Clarification on location hypothesis

 There are several messages which says , if I cover + or - 20 degree at Zenith /Nadir /Rising /setting of Sun/Moon ,I  practically cover much of the globe. So infact there is not much to beat the odds.

After ,studying these aspects ,following comments are offered. In fact ,I am cross checking these points
1) As far as Zenith and Nadir of Sun/Moon are concerned, what I believe is, the quake should occur before Sun/Moon reaches Zenith/Nadir and not after crossing their Zenith /Nadir.This is because, if there is potency ,maximum will be at Sharp Zenith /Nadir.If the plate boundaries can sustain this tidal pressure, there are less chances of quakes once they cross these two points.
So in short , the margin of 20 degrees should be prior to reaching Zenith/Nadir and not after that.
2) As far as rising/setting of Moon/Sun are concerned, if we consider all three twilight ie civil twilight up 6 degree prior to rising , Nautical twilight for 6 degrees prior to that and Astronomical for 6 degree  prior  total comes to18 degrees. Thus Say,20 degrees prior to rising and 20 degrees prior to setting
Now total comes to
A) Sun Zenith  and Nadir both..20+20=40
B) Moon Zenith and Nadir...20+20=40
C) Sun Rising and Setting....20+20=40
D) Moon Rising+ Setting...20+20=40
Total 160 degrees out of 360
160/360 ie 45%
So if  50% or more major quake follow the hypothesis, in margin ,I can beat the odds
  Comments from one and all are invited

4 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Yes, that's correct. Now let's see you do it.

I'm getting my program running soon and it will tell us whether you have anything useful.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I've been going over your analysis of your predictions. You made 32 predictions
but only 5 of them were correct. Even if that is better than expected, what
practical use is it?

Can you imagine anyone broadcasting a quake alert warning with such a low chance
of being correct?

No, if a large number of people are being warned of a major threat, you better be
95% sure you're right. 100% would be even better.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Please be specific.
Which year you are taking about.
This is for date or location?
No point in vaguely saying this
Regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

Sorry for the delay.

I went over all your predictions to get number of hits. This was some time ago so I can't be too specific but I think I was checking for quakes within specified time intervals (3 days)

Location would have been included too somehow. This was a long time ago so I can't be too sure of anything.

Roger