Yes
Yet another hit prediction. (in window period).
By the way ,this is a full Moon day. Sun and Moon both are closer
A 6.5 quake at PNG on 27th November 2023 at 21.46 UTC
3.5 N,144 E
Watch Moon setting at Epicenter, with margin of 20 minutes time.
I need to confess one thing here.
Even though I knew , 27th was more prone to major quake ,I have given 26th.
Actually in order to cover both potent dates 24th and 27th ,which are close, I prefer to give one date ,which could cover both potent dates(at least in window period)
Now , I would like to take opinion of one and all in general and seismologist in perticular, as to whether, I should keep doing the same ,or change the ,window period and numbers of dates predicted
option 1)
As it is....window period +or- one day
and 4 to 5 dates...ie 5x3=15 dates in a month
Or
Option 2)
window period +or - 12 hrs ,giving time in UTC ,and 10 dates (on an average)
8 comments:
Amit;
I am (or was) a seismologist, a geophysicist GS12 and you already have my opinion.
Roger
Amit;
You're making so many predictions you cover the whole month. That catches any quakes that happen but the misses lower your score.
Not a good method.
Roger
Roger
It is not correct
With 24 hrs window ,I cover 6 to 8 days
While for + or - 1 day ,it could be 12 to 15 days in a month.
Ok
Let us do one thing.
What are the odds of a date hit major (6&6+) quake prediction?
Take my dates ,from this blog posts ,for last say 4 -5 years and check ,how many are date hits.?
If you do not want to go back, check for this month first?
Amit
Amit;
12 to 15 days is about 50%.
Pretty high odds.
I'll check the last few months.
Roger
amit;
I have your predictions for 2020 and 2021
I need your predictions for 2022 and 2023.
Roger
amit;
Add in the 2024 predictions too.
Roger
Roger
For 2024 only January 24,prediction.Those are available on this blog
Regards
Amit
Post a Comment