Roger
pl note 6.9 quake on 6th April 2016, a date hit 6.5+ prediction
Now ,the magnitude is 6.5+ and the date hit prediction
Roger, what are the odds of 6.9 ,date hit prediction
Amit
pl note 6.9 quake on 6th April 2016, a date hit 6.5+ prediction
Now ,the magnitude is 6.5+ and the date hit prediction
Roger, what are the odds of 6.9 ,date hit prediction
Amit
10 comments:
Amit;
You didn't predict a 6.9 quake, you predicted a 6.5+ quake and the odds on that are 0.06 for a 3 day window.
You have one hit and one miss so far this month.
Roger
http://m.themalaymailonline.com/features/article/ntu-scientists-score-breakthrough-in-quake-prediction
watch this research paper
How it changes the concepts of plate tectonics and quake relation
watch how they are moving towards cycle quake theory
Now they are introducing pre quakes like after shocks
Amiti
Hi
Yet another 6.7 quake at Vanuatu to day ie on 7th April 2016. Second 6.5+ quake in window period
Now one question for seismologists who support plate ctonics
which one of these two quakes is Mainshock
whether there is pre shock or after shock here?
Amit
Roger
i have difference of opinion. The date which I have not predicted and quake occurs can not be treated as miss
the statement could be like this
"So far in the month of April i have predicted one date and that was a date hit. One more 6.5+ quake occurred on the date which was not predicted by me"
Amit
Roger
There is yet another 6.7 quake on 7th ie in window period. which , I am sure you will not count. However ,you will count the for the date which I have never predicted
This is like- Head I win tail you loose"
Amit
Amit;
I am scoring predictions, not quakes.
You have 3 predictions, one of which (so far) is correct.
One quake is sufficient for a hit so the second does not matter. You did not predict 2 quakes for that window.
But there was a quake you should have predicted on the 3rd.
The score is then 2/3 quakes, 1/3 predictions thus far.
Roger
Amit;
Here's a quiz for you.
Suppose you reduce your window to one day and the odds on a hit are 0.01
You make one prediction and it is correct!
Are you a good predictor? It would seem so at first glance.
But suppose there were 100 such quakes that year.
Now are you still a good predictor?
No, it was just chance.
Roger
Roger
The ratio here is not 1 to 100
I have one question
I am not aware as to weather bureau take a stock of the predictions made through out the year.
How does it stand ,in terms of date/time, location and inches of rain prediction.
How do they take in account the dates where heavy rain occurs but not forecasted by bureau
What are the accuracy of prediction, and wheather it is above odds or not
Amit
Hi
one more 6.5+ hit prediction.6.8 a Hindukush
Amit
Amit;
Doesn't count; outside the window.
Miss.
Roger
Post a Comment