hi
Here is the results of my earthquake prediction
During year 2010 ,ie 1st January to 22nd December the results are as follows
1)6+ quakes occurred--165
2) number of date predicted-45
3) Window period + or - 1 day ,ie 3 day window
4)% of time of the year under window period--37%
5)37 % of total quakes is --61
6) Actual 6+ quakes in window period is ----77
7) Number of hits --37
8)Number of misses----8
9)% of hits---82%
If we consider only one quake (6+) per day from NEIC records, total dates on which 6+ (at least one ) occured is ---118 only insted of 165 with muliple quakes per day.
please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Amit
Thus ,it is well above average quakes
Amit
3 comments:
Hi Amit, As you say lets look at your posted basic stats. To do stats you may need to do hypothesis testing etc. But lets look at your percentages here.
There are 122 3 day slots in a year.
165 quakes occurred in the year 2010.
You predicted 45. (27% of total occurred), very low percentage which tell us that the link must be incomplete and there is a lot more to earthquakes than this link you aspire for a start. ...OK...lets proceed....
Lets see how good you were when you actually made a prediction even if the predictions are a small part of the destructive quakes.....
You are predicting 37% of the window period. So lets see how good you were in this window....
You should have predicted 62 earthquakes. (although we had 77)
you had 37 predicted....8 misses..
% hits = 37/62=60% success not 82%.
% misses=13%.
Now le us compare your record with RANDOM dates.
The problem is that RANDOM selection is BETTER because 118 quakes (one a day worst case) occupy 122 slots in a year.
so random % of success is 96%. Better than yours.
Now lets look at comparison of the success in your time window compared to random again we have your success is 60% and random is 45 3 day slot and randomly you would have had predicted 44 quakes more than you have...The stats AMIT are not agreeing with you.
Regards,
AMIT
Sorry Amit I type fast and make lots of typos......Regards, REMI (Not Amit)
For probable dates of 7+ quakes ,theory and FAQs,please see my this (latest) blogs and my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Next probable dates are January 18/19 and 25/26 for 7+ quake
AMit
4:46 AM
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