Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Earthquake prediction for August 2011

Earthquakes prediction for August 2011

With slight modification of my Annual earthquake prediction given on this blog,following dates are given

1)6th August 2011----- 6.5

2)13th August 2011---- 6.8

3)22nd August 2011---- 7.0

4)28/29th August 2011-- 7.1

Window period for date is + or - one day

please note that ,all predicted quakes are 6.5+

Place not known

Amit

34 comments:

AMIT said...

Hi
As a public trial of time accuracy I here by give time in UTC for the quakes predicted for August 2011
1)6th August------0810

2)13th August-----1530

3)22nd August------0130

4)29th August-------0310

As a clarification to the original post the dates like 28/29th August does not mean two dates.It means -1200 Noon from 28th to 1200 Noon Next day-

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Normally your predictions are +- 1 day for a 3 day window.

Is this no longer true?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes.You are right .My prediction are for + or - one day ie 3 day window period.
However, as a special test I wanted to know how far close (in terms of Hrs) the prediction can be made
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

When you can't do well with 3 days, what makes you think one day will be better?

Roger

AMIT said...

roger
Let us wait and watch,beforw we conclude anything
By the way,what are the odds of 6.5+ quakes occuring in window period of + or - 6 Hrs?
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
how can I post on your blog of earthquake prediction Archieve?

http://predarchive.blogspot.com/
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
As per NEIC records there are 467
6.5+ quakes during 1st January 2001 to 31st December 2010.
ie Roughly 50 odd quakes in a year.50/360=0.138 are the odds of date hit
half of this ie 0.07 approx. are the odds of 6.5+ with + or - 6 Hrs Window hit
There are 14% cahnce of 6.5+ date hit and 7% chance of 6.5+ ,with + or - 6 Hrs window hit
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;


I get odds of 3% for a 12 hour window.

You can't post on that blog. The needed code is not available yet.

Roger

Anonymous said...

didnt see any 6.5+ earthquakes happen for this prediction

AMIT said...

HI
Yes, only a quake of 6.3 on 4th August 2011 at Kuril and a volcano erupation on 4th at Hawai no other quake of 6.5
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit
Any prediction for jamshedpur area for Aug & sept
Thanks

AMIT said...

Hi

Places can not be pin pointed as of now.However it can be done in principle
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Mount Etna erupts again on 12th August 2011

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/earth-science/geology/volcano/mount-etna-volcano-erupts-tenth-eruption-time-this-year/31732.html

AMit

Anonymous said...

Amit,
Good Evening
There was an light earthquake as per Indian metrological dept. on 9 August 11 at 03:33:48 UTC Lat 22.8°N Long 86.5°E Depth 5 KM Magnitude:3.4 , W.B.(PURULIYA) - JHARKHAND(JAMSHEDPUR) BORDER REGION.
1).Is there any possibilty that it will occure again in the same loaction aug & sept ?.
2)17-Aug-11 MERCURY-SUN-VENUS- EARTH ARE IN STRAIGHT LINE, WILL IT TRIGGER THE EARTHQUAKE DUE TO CHANGE IN ANGULAR MOMENTUM OF TECTONIC PLATE.
3).DOES LARGE SOLAR FLARE/SOLAR WIND CAUSES EARTHQUAKE BY MAGNETISING THE MEGNETIC MATERIALS OR MAGMA BELOW THE CRUST IN TECTONIC PLATES ???
4). WILL THERE BE LOT OF EARTH QUAKE WORLD WIDE AS WE ARE APPROCHING SOLAR CYCLE 24 MAXIMUM 2011-2012 ???

Thanks & Best Regards.

AMIT said...

Hi
Sulawesi's mount Soputan erupted on 14th August 2011

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/08/14/n-sulawesi%E2%80%99s-mount-soputan-erupts.html
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
there are lots of quakes ,which are less than 4.0 on daily basis.
1)I do not predict places as of now
2)Actually date 13th /14th were more prone than 17th.Sun ,Mercury, and Venus on one side and Moon on other side during full Moon
3)Relation of Quake sun spots have not been proved yet
4) Solar cycle 24 ts the 24th solar cycle since it is being recorded since 1755. It may cause some geomagnetic disturbances.But it is not yet known ,whether it can cause major quakes
Amit

AMIT said...

HI
A smaller quake of 6.0 at Japan on 12th August 2011, in window period

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/Quake-shakes-Japans-Fukushima-no-tsunami-alert-NHK/articleshow/9571891.cms
Ait

AMIT said...

Hi
A research topic by The journal of Geophysical Research -space physics- stats that

Japan quake rattled upper atmosphere- and that ,this could be used for early warning to mega quakes.

The point is ,if the effects are after quake (7 minutes),how can it be used as early warning indicator?
A least ,now ,the indicators outside -plate tectonics- are recognized
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Eruption at Mt Soputan increased on 14/15th August 2011

http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/15/7374698-mount-soputan-spews-ash-and-lava-in-indonesia

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Yet another ,out of the way effort for predicting earthquakes,by monitoring electromagnetic waves across the fault line

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/us/14bcquakefinder.html?_r=1

One of my friend posting by the name -EQF- is working on the topic.
Unfortunately ,the idea is being opposed by one and all

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html

These are good signs ,that we look for alternate solutions.
Why not we can take in to account all theories ,and find out the solution?
Why it is that ,we are stuck to one theory-Plate tectonics- which firmly believes that the earthquakes can not be predicted?
THINK OUT OF THE BOX

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

AMIT

wanderer said...

blair robertson predicts strong earth tremors southern nz next 10 days

AMIT said...

WANDERER
Places can not be pin pointed as of now.Hence .giving any place may create panic among people
This should be avoided
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Here are two major quakes
7.1 at Vanuatu on 20th August 1655
7.0 at Vanuatu on 20th August 1819

What do you think ,it is hit (7+) date or miss?The predicted date time and magnitude are as follows

22nd August at 0130 UTC and 7.0 magnitude

Your opinions are requested
While writing this ,I am aware that my predictions are for + or - one day window period( which are very stringent for 7.0 quake prediction and also that these quakes are just outside (6Hrs) window period
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
A 4.2 quake at NZ

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10746693

AMIT said...

hi
one of the biggest (5.3)quake hit Colorado in recent years on 23rd August 2011

http://www.gazette.com/articles/earthquake-123712-usgs-magnitude.html

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Please note Virginia and Colarodo earthquakes on predicted date. ie on 22nd /23rd August 2011.
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
A quake ,6.8,struck northen reu on 24th Agust 2011.
watch 27 as well as 29/30th August 2011 (place not known)
cyclonic stroms or Volcanic eruptions may also occur during this period
Amit

Anonymous said...

HI Can you tell me if the quake predicted is for Christchurch New Zealand 28th 29th august
Mary

AMIT said...

mary
Place of earthquake can not be predicted as of now
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Hurricane Irene strikes east coast of US.
The dates predicted are prone for quake/volcanic eruption or Hurricanes(tropical cyclones
1)when the tidal pull is high and breaks the earth crust patially , a quake occurs
2) When the pull is directly under volcano mouth, and strong enough to open up the mouth of dormant volcano , an eruption occurs
3) When the high tide pull is more the low tides are also more ( 90 degrees apart on earth)
When the place comes out of low tide effect due to low pressure created ,air rushes to fill the place. If such air passes through ocean waters having specific temperature (26/27 degrees) ,the air gathers momentum from latent heat of ocean waters. Thus ,a tropical cyclone is created
Thus dates predicted here are prone to all these Natural disasters.
4) A cloud burst of unusual nature is also due to high tide pull
AMit

AMIT said...

HI
Mount Etana erupts again on 29th /30th August 2011

http://www.goldcoastmail.com.au/story/2011/08/30/mount-etnas-eruption-intensifies-in-italy/
Amt

AMIT said...

hi
It is noticed that during 28th /29th August 2011, several Volcano have erupted,some of them posed threat to Air traffic

http://www.iol.co.za/news/world/ash-forces-air-traffic-reroute-1.1127017?showComments=true

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Here is one expected .6.8 quake at Banda sea on 30th August 2011 at 0657 UTC
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
We have 299 quakes having 6.7 or more magnitude ,during 1st Jan 2001 to 31st Dec 2010(as per NEIC)
Therefore there are 30 quakes of 6.7+ magnitude every year
Now ,the odds of date hit quake prediction of 6.7+ is
30/360 ie 1/12 ie one in twelve and
fr + or - one day window it is 30/120(windows) ie one in four
Amit