Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Friday, June 30, 2023

Real cause of deeper Earthquakes

 Roger ,I think with USGS catalog available,you can devise a program which can count all 6+ quakes from 1900 ( or earlier,if available ) per each 100 km depth from. 0 to 800 kms

 We can have a picture of what I am saying is correct and that hypothesis works...

  Which roughly says...

For a quake to occur two things are required...

1) A solid or partially solid layer 

2) A liquid or viscous movable layer below solid layer 

With tidal pull on liquid layer the upper solid crust gets broken partially resulting in a quake.So quakes can occur in solid layers only

So major quakes can occur in solid layers of Earth anywhere upto upper core( because below core there is nothing)

  That is why we do not have major quakes between 300 to 500 kms depth

  This is the real cause of deeper quakes at 600 to 800 kms where deeper solid layer is partially broken by tidal pull on liquid layer below it

Question number 6 to Plate tectonics

 Here is one study . Two random dates were taken 

1)23rd June 2006

2)30th June 2010 nearly 4 years apart

 A list of 6.5+ quake was search on USGS 

There are total 204 such quakes 

 We have ,say, a range  from 0 kms to 700 kms ie a range of 700 kms

 If these quakes were equally distributes , each 100 kms should have around 30 such 6.5+ quakes per 100 km depth

  What I found , (as expected -supporting my hypothesis ) that between 300 to 500 kms there are minimum quakes -just three -

a) 6.6 at PNG on 20th March 2010...at depth of 414kms

b) 7.3 on 24th November 2008-at Russia ...at depth..492 kms

C) 6.8 on 16th July 2007 at Japan  at.....35. kms

 Now the question to plate tectonics is ...

Instead of 60 quakes ( 30/100 km x 2) why there are only 3 quakes of 6.5+?

Even there are more quakes ,deeper to this ie 550 to 700 kms and much more between 10 to 100 kms 

Why only this patch is left out ?

My hypothesis even , intend to suggest that ,there is something wrong with the depth evaluation of these three quakes even

 Theoretically there should not be a  single major quake in the range of 300 kms to 500 kms

 As usual answer will be posted tomorrow

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Answer to Question no 5..to plate tectonics

 

Generally I try to answer the question asked ,the next day.
Here in case of question no 5- I do not have clear answer as to why plate tectonics can not correctly estimate the built up stresses on a given plate boundry and there by predict the impending major quake with fair amount of accuracy.
  As an Engineering Graduate,what I know is ...
..In a given equation if I have only one unknown figure ,I can find it out easly.
  If I can find out ,by laboratory test the shearing strength required for a sample from deep within the plate boundry,to give way ,I shoukd be able to predict major quake ( after taking in account factor of safety.

Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Question 5 to plate tectonics

 Here is one more Question

Question number 5 ...to Plate tectonics 


As per plate tectonics the quakes occur due to built up stresses in the plate boundaries. When the built up stress (due to movement of plates) exceeds it releases the stress and quakes occur


Now we know

1)Plates area 

2) Thickness of plates

3) Average density of plates

Hence we know weight of plates/mass of plates

 Further we know the speed / movement of plates and hence kinetic energy (1/2x mass x square of velocy)

  Now we can have some laboratory test of crust samples to know the shearing force required to break /shear the Earth  rust.

Recently Chhina has drilled a hole in the crust going 10 km  deep inside the crust

  If we take samples of crust from depth and test in laboratory for their shear strength,we can have idea as to when the built pressure will increase th threshold limit

 So now we (plate tectonics) have all things available in our hand

mass ,weight, speed  of plate and hence total kgf

 Further we know the cross section area of plate boundaries and depth of plates .

 hence we can find out built up stresses in kgf/square meter

 Now when this built up stresses exceed the laboratory tested shear strength,the quake will occur ( as per plate tectonics)


So now Question is why we can not calculate built up stresses and compare with laboratory test strength of samples taken from deep inside the crust and predict thr date of major Earthquakes with fair amount of accuracy?


Sunday, June 25, 2023

Deeper Earthquake hypothesis

 Here is the probable answer to Question number 4...to Plate tectonics...


How do you explain deeper Quakes?


We have seen that the answer provided by plate tectonics is not logical and even to the extent of being flimsy 


   Now here is the hypothesis....


The tidal pull is applicable at all layers namely..


1)  Oceans ...High tide ..low tide

2) Earth Plates and boundaries....Earthquakes and Eruptions 

3)Atmosphere...Cyclones and cloud bursts

4) On upper Earth crust...Bulging of crust due to tidal effect 

5) Deep below crust ..lower mentle (600 to 2900 km)


We have seen that molten magma creates tidal pull on upper crust and hence quakes and eruptions.

  However there is another such set of partially solid lower mentle (600 to 2900 kms) and below it a liquid mentle (2900 km to 5150 km)

 This liquid ( 2900 to 5150 km) produce tidal pull on the lower menle ( 600 to 2900 km) immediately above it.

 Thus another set of Earthquakes occurs at 600 to 700 km below Earth crust.

   It may be noted here that 6.5+ deep quakes can not occur between 200 to 500 kms depth(hardly occurs) .Plate tectonics can not explain this.

   For Earthquakes to occur there should be a solid ( or atleast partially solid) crust above liquid mentle. There is no such solid crust between 250 to 550 km ( it is after 600 km or up to 150 kms) hence no 6.5+ quake there.

  So 6.5 quakes will generally occur up to 150 kms depth or at depth 600 to 800 kms and not between 250 to 550 kms


I have done some work on 8+ quakes after 

1st January 1990. There are 98 such quakes 

Depth of each of these quake was checked here are the results 

 0 to 20 km..29

 20 to 50...56

50 to 100...4

100 to 200...4

200 to 250...1

250 to 550 kms..Nil..QUAKES 

550 to 800 km..4 


for more please visit

https://lnkd.in/dzRtvB6w

Saturday, June 24, 2023

Answer to Question no 4 to plate tectonics

 Here is the probable answer to Question number 4...to Plate tectonics...


How do you explain deeper Quakes?


We have seen that the answer provided by plate tectonics is not logical and even to the extent of being flimsy 


   Now here is the hypothesis....


The tidal pull is applicable at all layers namely..


1)  Oceans ...High tide ..low tide

2) Earth Crust....Earthquakes and Eruptions 

3)Atmosphere...Cyclones and cloud bursts 

4) Deep below crust ..lower mentle (600 to 2900 km)


We have seen that molten magma creates tidal pull on upper crust and hence quakes and eruptions.

  However there is another such set of partially solid lower mentle (600 to 2900 kms) and below it a liquid mentle (2900 km to 5150 km)

 This liquid ( 2900 to 5150 km) produde tidal pull on the lower menle ( 600 to 2900 km) immediately above it.

 Thus another set of Earthquakes occurs at 600 to 700 km below Earth crust.

   It may be noted here that 6.5+ deep quakes can not occur between 200 to 500 kms.(hardly occurs) .Plate tectonics can not explain this.

   For Earthquakes to occur there should be a solid ( or atleast partially solid) crust above liquid mentle. There is no such solid crust between 200 to 500 km ( it is after 600 km or up to 150 kms) hence no 6.5+ quake there.

  So 6.5 quakes will generally occur up to 150 kms or at depth 600 to 800 kms and not between 200 to 500 kms


for more please visit

https://lnkd.in/dzRtvB6w

Question -4 to Plate Tectnics Get ready.... Have a look at these Earthquakes 1) 9th June 1994...8.3...Bolivia. at 636 km depth 2) 19th August 2018 ..Fiji.. at 00.19 UTC.......8.2.. 600 km depth 3) 6th September 2018..Fiji.at 15.49 UTC.. 7.9 at 67o kms depth Now question is... How do you explain deeper quakes. Plate thickness is say 100 kms. What causes major deeper quakes? at a depth where there is no plate only may be mentle transion zone. The (flimical) explanation given by plate tectonics is like this... . At subduction zone hard ocean crust go below and reach up to 600 or 700 kms. There are several chemical changes in the -slab-minerals (the plate going below is renamed as Slab) Say Serpentine mineral to Olivine mineral And Oivine mineral to Olivine Spinel mineral These chemical changes releases water and energy.Hence deeper quakes. Now The temp increases 1 degree every 100 mtr. So at 70 km or more depth no plate or (Slab?) can remain Solid. How dies this liquefied plate ( Slab?) reaches at a depth of 700 km to make chemical changes What I believe is.. Just to defend plate tectonics any vague explanation is given by giving some fancy names to plate and minerals All seismolist in general and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in perticular is requested to explain this.. Answer with new hypothesis will be given tomorrow

 Question -4 to Plate Tectnics 


Get ready....


Have a look at these Earthquakes

1) 9th June 1994...8.3...Bolivia.

at 636 km depth 

2) 19th August 2018 ..Fiji..

at 00.19 UTC.......8.2.. 600 km depth 

3) 6th September  2018..Fiji.at 15.49 UTC..

7.9 at 67o kms depth


Now question is...

How do you explain deeper quakes.

Plate thickness is say 100 kms.

What causes major deeper quakes? at a depth where there is no plate only may be mentle transion zone.


The (flimical) explanation given by plate tectonics is like this...

.


At subduction zone hard ocean crust go below and reach up to 600 or 700 kms.

There are several chemical changes in the -slab-minerals

(the plate going below is renamed as Slab)


Say Serpentine mineral to Olivine mineral

And

Oivine mineral to Olivine Spinel mineral 


These chemical changes releases water and energy.Hence deeper quakes.


Now 

The temp increases 1 degree every 100 mtr.

So at 70 km or more depth no plate or (Slab?) can remain Solid.

 How dies this liquefied plate ( Slab?) reaches at a depth of 700 km to make chemical changes 

 What I believe is..

Just to defend plate tectonics any vague explanation is given by giving some fancy names to plate and minerals


All seismolist in general and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in perticular is requested to explain this..



Answer with new hypothesis will be given tomorrow


Friday, June 23, 2023

Cross checking epicenter hypothesis by random dares

 

As one of my friend suggested to check my epicenter hypothesis with random dates /times and check the results
I have just started doing that.
first random dates ( year 1600 to 2600) were taken and time ,as well as epicenter were seated from any of the actual major (8+) quake ( out of my previous 100 selected)
  The first hand results suggest around 45 to 50% follow the hypothesis.
Where as our results are up to 85%
  In fact 45%Accuracy is normal ...
This is because...we have..

15 degree margin on both side..ie 30 for each.
Now Zenith and Nadir for both Sun and Moon gives 30x4= 120 degree

Rising and Setting have 20x 2 =40 degree

120+40=160 degrees

So probably is 160/360=44%...

Thus up to 50% is just by chance
Anything we'll above it need to be noted

Answer to question 3a) 3b) to plate tectonics

 Answers to questions 3a).3b)....Asked to plate tectonics in my yesterday's post


Pangea Supercontinent and new hypothesis...as Answer



There was only one (first and last) Supercontinent ie pengea. 

The Pengea was formed due to cooling effect over the years

The land mass of Pengea was arranged in such a way that almost half of the land mass was above and below Equator. That is why it did not move prior to it's breaking up

The Pengea broke due to violent quakes and Volcanic eruptions 

Once it was broken in pieces the pieces of land mass started moving to poles

 The plates whose 50%+ land mass was above equator started moving to North pole.north East

  Whereas the plates whose 50%+ land mass was below Equator started moving to South pole

 All land mass will ultimately go to both poles.That is why we have less land mass at Equator and more land mass at both poles.

 The plates which have crossed equator will never return to equator 

There will never be another super continent Now.

The plates move due to Earth rotation and coriolis effect

 The plates near Equator moves faster.

Two plates in One hemisphere can not collide due to opposite motion infact they move in same direction one faster and second slower and hence collide.

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Queston 3 to plate tectonis

 

Question 3 -to Plate Tectonics

The plate tectonics believes that there were several ( at least 3 or 4) Super continents prior to the latest -Pengea-
Several times these continents were broken down in various plates again combined to form another super continent

Now here is the third question..in fact series of questions 3a,3b,.....etc

3a)If there were Super continents prior to Pangea and they were broken up several times,where are those plate boundaries of earlier break ups?
Are those plate boundaries are merged and become homogenous plate ?
What are the chances of the current plate boundaries being merged ?

3b) What makes those super continents break ? Are thise heat currents?
if so , are those heat currents were there earlier to formation of Supercontinent?
if yes, those heat currents will not allow the supper continent form at that in first place? Are those heat currents changes
location or direction? How and why?

3c)  Why there are more land mass at poles and less at equator?

3d) Why the plates near to equator move faster and those near poles are nearly stand sill?

3e) What are the basis of believing how earlier Supercontinents look like?

3f) Can a plate which has crossed equator and moving towards poles can come back to equator?

All those who support plate tectonics in general and USGS National Innovation Center in perticular to answer these questions

Amit Dave



Tuesday, June 20, 2023

A studt of 8 + quakes after 1st January 1990 for epicenter hypothesis

 https://www.dropbox.com/s/j99tzre17k52m7r/8.5%2B%20quakes%20-from%201.1.1900.odt?dl=0


Here is the result of 8+ quake study from 1st Jan 1900 till today

There are 98 such quakes .Hence two 7.5+ quakes ( first two) added

Results are as follows..

15 not following the hypothesis of epicenter  So result is 85%

 One observation..

The two curves ( light surves) of Sun and Moon crosses at two points .These two points are special and have high potential. This is because there is practically A new Moon or Full Moon at these two points  as both curves crosses each other.Thus they are either rising or setting at the same time,hence a full Moon or New Moon effect

these points ,and longitudes are prone to quakes 


Question 2 ...to plate tectonics

 Question 2 ..to Plate Tectnics


There was a major quake of 6.3 magnitude  at Latur ,Maharashtra ,India ,on 30 th Sept 1993.

Now Latur is not on plate boundry.

How come such a major quake at Latur?


Let me give the answer given by plate tectonics..

..There are fault line inside a major plate.

This fault line is the cause of intra plate quakes...

Now the question is...

....As per plate tectonics,For any quake to  occur there should be relative motion .In case of a small intraplate fault line ,How come there be a relative motion inside one plate..?


Now my version is...

PLATE BOUNDRIES AND FAULT LINE ARE DUE TO EARTHQUAKES AND THE EARTHQUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATE BOUNDARIES OR FAULT  LINE.


 It is true that most of the quakes occur at plate boundaries but it is  simply because they are the weaker sections and they give away first due to tidal pull passing near by.


Epicenter hypothesis checking for 8+ quakes after 1st January 1990

 The study of 8+ quakes after 1st January 1990 to date ,pertaining to my epicenter hypothesis theory is completed.

 The first hand report is ..

out of 100 ( actually there are 98 such quakes but 2 I have added randomly which are 7.5+)

The results are..

Out of 100 such quakes 12 do not follow the hypothesis. 

So accuracy is 88%


Detailed report with (slightly) modified hypothesis will be posted soon

This is first hand report.

May change ( not more than 5%) after final evaluation 

Monday, June 19, 2023

One question daily to plate tectonics

 One question(though there are many) to plate Tectonics 


The tidal pull and hence planetary alignment are main cause of major quakes

They are the cause and trigger both.


One simple question (though there are many) to plate tectonics is...

...The plate tectonics says the plate movements built up stress on plate boundaries and when the stress exceed it releases them with movements/slide etc

Now the question is...at some prone location say at PNG or Tonga there are 6+quakes frequently,may be every alternate day.

Does it mean the plate boundaries built up stresses every alternate day? ( which takes centuries to built up normally)


 There are few more questions to plate tectonics. 

One question will be asked daily for Seismologist to answer

Sunday, June 18, 2023

18th June 2023....a date hit prediction with location hypothesis

 Here is a quake .A date hit prediction 

6.3 quake at Mexico at 20.30 UTC  at 22 N ,108 w .on 18th June 2023

watch Moon at 118 W  ( 10 margin) -Zenith

Saturday, June 17, 2023

One more hit ( with epicenter hypothesis) prediction

 

Watch today's Tonga quake of 6 at 11.26 UTC.
The Sun and Moon both ( Sun Sharply) are at Nadir to epicenter

Quake at 175 W longitudes
Sun at 8.44 East
Moon at 0.37 West
Actual Nadir is 5 East

How many proof are needed for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to respond?


Amit

Thursday, June 15, 2023

Epicenter hypothesis hecking for 100 major quakes

https://www.dropbox.com/s/tyw64pxhpbvmiws/CHECKING%20EPICENTER%20HYPOTHESIS%20-JUNE%2023-1.odt?dl=0

Here is the study and cross checking of my major (6+) earthquake epicenter location hypothesis. 
 The link above shows last 100 major (6+) quakes and the epicenter location cross checking
It is observed that 86%of the quakes follow hypothesis. Rest 14% will be studied in details and a seperate post will be uploaded. 
  The epicenter location hypothesis states that...
.. A major (6+) quake will be occur at a location
Where.. 
....Sun or Moon are at Zenith or Nadir of location ( with 15 degree longitudes margin)
Or
....Where Sun or Moon are rising or setting..( with twilight zone margin)
 Any one can take few more major quakes and cross check this hypothesis 

Monday, June 12, 2023

The deep mountains and plate tectonics

 

Here is the point
Mountains are not entirely due to plate tectonics.
Deeper forces are responsible for lifting them
we have seen that ,there are huge mountains (3 tines bigger than Himalayas) deep below the Earth.
  Now where is plate tectonics at Earth core level.
  The reason given by plate tectonics is not correct. Merely saying that....
....these deep mountains are remains of subduction plate which goes in to the menle..How the subduction plate remain solid at Earth core level?
   The correct explanation is...
...Deep mountains are formed by bulging of solid menle due to tidal thrust below it.
    The same is now admitted here in this article also
so,wake up
plate tectonics is not the solution for all the Seismic problems
Think Out of Box

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-origins-of-mountains-could-lie-much-deeper-in-earth-than-we-thought

Sunday, June 11, 2023

Straight line theory fo Major (6+) Earthquake prediction (modified)

 A straight line theory for major (6+) quakes


we have seen some of the major quakes occurring on Full Moon or New Moon day


But it is not always correct

If so ,all major quakes should occur on FM and NM days.

 What I believe is other than above following plays major role

1) Proximity (closer) of Juoiter 'Venus,and Mars are also to be counted

2) One additional thing ,I have learnt over years is a configuration of planets in Straight line .when..

above planets are closer/changing direction from Direct to retrogate or retrogate to direct and in a straight line ,when Earth is also in that line...those prone weeks

  On such prone weeks ,when fast moving Moon joins the line ( one of these configuration is Full Moon,New Moon or even Eclipses) major quakes occur

 Jupiter is the key member of this straight line.One special attribute Jupiter have is...it is equally potent at 120 degree when compared to straight line. Say if Venus is closer(0.3 to 0.4 AU) and Jupiter is at 120 to Venus ,it is potent,if Moon Joins straight line

So ,now What I have concluded is other than Gravitation pull(Closeness..which is first requirement) a straight line configuration of more than 3 planets is required. 

One of these straight line of of course our Full Moon and New Moon

 So ,Major quakes can also occur on dates when Such straight line configuration occurs(other than Full Moon and New Moon)when 3 or more planes are in straight line ( one or two closer and changing direction).Jupiter ,Saturn ,Venus and Mars plays major role when closer and in line with Earth (and Moon)

  Please check yesterday's Japan quake (6.2...which was not predicted..)with my epicenter theory and know for yourself

Straight line theory for major earthquakes (6+) to occur

 straight line theory for major (6+) quakes


we have seen some of the major quakes occurring on Full Moon or New Moon day


But it is not always correct

If so ,all major quakes should occur on FM and NM days.

 What I believe is other than above following plays major role

1) Proximity (closer) of Jupiter 'Venus,and Mars are also to be counted

2) One additional thing ,I have learnt over years is a configuration of planets in Straight line .when..

above planets are closer/changing direction from Direct to retrogate or retrogate to direct and in a straight line ,when Earth is also in that line...those are prone weeks.

  On such prone weeks ,when fast moving Moon joins the line ( one of these configuration is Full Moon,New Moon or even Eclipses) major quakes occur

 Jupiter is the key member of this straight line.

So ,now What I have concluded is other than Gravitation pull(Closeness..which is first requirement) a straight line configuration of more than 3 planets is required. 

One of these straight line of of course our Full Moon and New Moon

 So ,Major quakes can also occur on dates when Such straight line configuration occurs(other than Full Moon and New Moon)when 3 or more planets are in straight line ( one or two closer and changing direction).Jupiter ,Saturn ,Venus and Mars plays major role when closer /changing directions and in line with Earth (and Moon)

  Please check yesterday's Japan quake (6.2...which was not predicted..)with my epicenter theory and know for yourself

Checking last 100 major quakes for epicenter hypothesis

 

I have completed the testing of 100 major (6+) quakes epicenter location hypothesis
Earlier 65 quakes were tested out if which 56 were as per hypothesis and 9 were not following
Now in remaining 35 quakes ,30 are as per hypothesis and 5 apparently not following ( which is yet to be stdied)
So in all out of 100 major quakes from Sept 22 till 10th June 23, total 86 quakes follow the norms
So accuracy is 86%

Saturday, June 10, 2023

Checking my epicenter location hypothesis...Results

 

One of my friend have asked me test my location hypothesis for latest 100 major quakes (6+) myself
  Today I have checked all 65 major quakes of 6+ from 1st January 2023 against my epicenter location hypothesis .
The detailed list with each result will be published soon.
  However,the gist of outcome /result is as follows

Out of 65 major (6+) quakes...
56 quakes follow the hypothesis
9 are not following Sun /Moon...Zenith/Nadir and rising/setting norms
The detailed result will show ,which other major planets those 9 quakes are following   and why
So percentage accuracy is..86%

Friday, June 09, 2023

Earthquake and Eruptions

 https://lnkd.in/dnxyWBfi


on 7th June 2023 ,the volcanic eruption started.

 Ad per hypothesis if on a predicted date ,there is a fresh volcainc eruption or major hike in continuing volcanic eruption,the magnitude of quake may be less.

This is because the built up tidal pressure is partially released by eruption 

Sunday, June 04, 2023

Gondwana was the first and last supercontinent .

 Few questions to plate tectonics on the idea of multiple supercontinents prior to Gondvana


There are few questions to plate tectonics

1) where are these earlier plate boundaries,prior to Gondavana super continent ,?

2) Are they merged ?

3) What forces broke and moved these plates?

Are those heat currents?

If heat currents were present at that place , it would not allow plates to solidify there,in first place


What I believe is...

There was only ,first and last super continent ie Gondvana.

 It broke in to pieces due to violent quakes and volcanic eruptions.

 After breaking up the broken part moved apart as per coriolis theory

 The plates above equator moved north, north east and to the south of equator moved south ,south west

 All plates will ultimately moving to poles,north or soth

Therefore there is more land mass at poles and less land mass at equator 

 Once the plate crossed the equator it will never come back to equator 

There was no previous supercontinent and there will not be any henceforth 

All land mass will move to poles

The closer to equator the plate move faster

At poles it becomes standstill.

 what we call collision of two plates is infact ,one plate (nearer to pole) move slowly and the plate (nearer to equator) move faster .The collision is infact due to differece in speed.

  The smaller and nearer to equator plates will move faster. 

  The plate whose 50%+ land mass is above Equator will move towards North,North East and the plate whose 50%+ land mass is below Equator will move southwards 

  The Gondwana didn't move when it was one supercontinent because the land mass of it was equally distributed above and below Equator 

  The moment it broke due to violent quakes and eruptions,the broken pieces started moving northward and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)