Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, April 21, 2024

Explanation of deeper quakes

 The Deep quakes and plate tectonics


The plate tectonics fails to explain the deep quakes at 600 to 700 kms below Earthcrust.This is because the plate thickness are up to 100 kms .How come a rupture or relative motion at this much depth.
The answer given by plate tectonics is like this...
At subduction zone the plate  going below another plate, reaches the depth of 700 kms and then due to heat ,it dismantle from subducting plate,giving a jerk and hence a quake.
Now the question is...
1) The temp at 700 km depth is about 1000 degrees Celsius
2) The Earth crust melt at temp from 600 to 900 degree Celsius 1300 Celsius max.
Now the question is whether the defending plate can bear the temp of 1000 degrees ,without melting or atleast becoming fluid?
How come a fluid plate material can produce a jerk on mother plate,which is already melted or about to melt?
The explanation given is just an eyewash.
Now my explanation is...
There is water (in whichever form ,sponge or otherwise),below Earthcrust at a depth of 700 kms.The beauty of recent reserch says ,the water quantity is three times that of waters in all oceans.
Now when tidal pull exceed the limit ,on given date ,it breaks the surrounding mentle (material) and a deep quake occurs.
So ,tidal pull on water below 700 kms is the main reason of deep quakes.

Thursday, April 18, 2024

Some opinion -way back in 2008

 http://suvratk.blogspot.com/2008/06/mumbai-engineer-claims-new-earthquake.html?m=1

Monday, April 15, 2024

One more question to plate tectonics

 

One more question for plate tectonics

It is beltway, it takes years to built up stresses at plate boundaries, inside the crust.When these stresses are released by way of movement and Earthquake, it takes several years to built up stresses again
Now question is...
Why there are frequent 6+ quakes at locations like PNG ,Tonga etc.?
Why and how the stresses are built-up so fast.
If you have doubt ,take out records for both places and check.

Now here is my explanation
At such locations ,like Japan ,where more plate boundaries meet ,the structure is very week.So ,whenever there is little more tidal pull nearby ,it gives a way first ( being weakest)
Hence more major quakes at these locations
for more
https://Earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com

Tuesday, April 09, 2024

Can we measure built up stresses on the plate boundaries?

 Plate tectonics and internal built up stress


As it is believed that ,the Earthquakes occur due to built up stress on the plate boundaries.  As the moving plates  creates and built up stresses over plate boundaries.
When these built up stresses exceed the threshold limit ,the plates move one over other or side by side and hence a quake
Now being an engineer, I have some questions about these stresses.
Most of the major and devastating quakes occurs at shallow depth of 10 to 15 km.
Look at here ,what all data we have
1) plate area in sq kms
2) Depth of plates
3) Average density of plate
4) Hence mass of plates
5) speed of plates in cms per year etc
6) Hence kinetic energy a plate carry while moving say 1/2 mv2
7) we can drill up to 12 kms inside the Earth and can collect samples from depth.
8) We can test these samples taken from along plate boundaries and test them in Laboratory for compression, tensile and shear strength.
Now with all these data can seismologist find out the built up stress at 12 km depth?
Also can seismologist compare these built up stress with laboratory results
Keeping some factor of safety can seismologist predict when the built up stress will exceed laboratory results?
SO CAN WE PREDICT MAJOR EARTHQUAKES?




A hypothesis on plate boundaries and Earthquakes

 A hypothesis on plate tectonics


Look at my this statement...

Yes,there are plates on Earth and they are moving. However, the fact of the matter is
the Earthquakes are not due to these plates ,but the plates and plate boundaries are due to Earthquakes..

Look at my above, may be stupid ,may be bold statement.,you decide.
  However before deciding answer few of the following questions
1) As the Earthcrust started to solidify, how the first plate broke and plate boundry developed?
Wait ,I will give your answer..The heat currents of magma from below comming up broke it.correct?
Now answer this question..
If there were heat currents /convection currents, (like boiling water comming up),at that location ,it would not allow the plate to solidify over it,in first place.

Now look at this explanation..
As the Earth cooled plates started to solidify over it.The tidal pull broke the thin crusts,as major Earthquakes, at several locations.Hence plates and plate boundaries are formed.
2) Why there are quakes at locations other than plate boundaries?
Wait ,I will answer it for you.
Those are due to intra plate fault lines.
Now another question..
If there is a small faultline inside a big plate,how come there are relative motion on fault line? Because there can not be a relative motion ,inside a big plate,which is must for a quake to occur.

MOON QUAKES AND TIDAL PULL

 

Why Moonquakes follow tidal cycle .Why Moonquakes are very deep?
Why Moon have quakes without platetectonics.?

Surprisingly ,seismologist believe that ,Moonquakes are due to Earth's tidal pull.But not ready to believe that can happen to Earth also.

Now ,I will explain what actually happens when seismologist try to link full Moon and New Moon to Earthquakes.
Yes, all Full Moon and New Moon do not give quakes .If you try to link them statistically it may not give results.
What actually required is ,several factors like
1) Moon cycle
2) Moon proximity
3) Moon at Maximum Declinations North or South
4) Major planets closer to Earth mainly Jupiter,Venus ,Mars
5) Three or More planets in line with Earth
6) Major planets changing directions from Direct to retrogate or retrogate to direct
7)Sun at Maximum Declinations
These are in order of importance
Why Maximum Declinations ?
Because after Maximum Declinations the planets appears to move in opposite direction in sky.Thus the tidal pull direction reverses. It is like breaking a car and reversing direction. This gives jerks to internal magma .Hence a quake
So ,one need to combine all ,not only Moon phases.
Studying only Moon phases V/s quakes and rejecting the theory is not correct

https://seismo.berkeley.edu/blog/2009/07/20/quakes-on-the-moon.html

Monday, April 08, 2024

Hypothesis of volcanic eruptions and Earthquake link

 Watch my date of Earthquake prediction 

7th April 24.

Though there is only one 6 mag quake on 8th (actually two minutes past 8th ) here is a volcanic eruption on 7th 

As states earlier ,my probable dates are prone to volcanic eruption also.

 The new hypothesis is 

On the predicted date ,there are chances of volcanic eruption to occur also.

This is because ,the tidal pull on magma, if directly below volcanic mouth ,it may break open the mouth and an Eruption occurs.

 Further ,the extended version of hypothesis says,...

..if there is an eruption on the given date ,the magnitude of quake will be less ,This is because in eruption the internal built up pressure is partially released ,hence lesser magnitude quake.

Yet ,extended version of hypothesis says..

...few years from now ,it will be possible to manage the magnitude of quake in populated area  by inducing volcanic eruption at remote places and there by reducing the magnitude of quakes on given date

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShtIihbXiJw

Saturday, April 06, 2024

Aftershocks at New jersy.

 Yesterday there was considerably higher magnitude 5 (4.8 as per USGS) quake at New Jersy

The quake was on 5th April 24 at  14.23 UTC (40.7 N and 74.75 W)

First look at my epicenter hypothesis
At the time of quake the Moon was at
74.2 W,right over zenith)
Now one question for plate tectonics..
Is there any plate boundry or fault line at epicenter?
To the best of my knowledge...No..
How do you explain this quake with plate tectonics.?
And Yes...this is outside my window period by about 10 hrs . So ,I do not ask for credit ,neither it is 6+ quake.

However my date is 7th April 24 with + or - one day window period.


DISCLAIMER.. The quake ,date and time predicted here are not recognized by and organization and that these prediction may not come true. These are just for academic purposes

Now ,after this Disclaimer, which is mandatory,  I would like to give probable time ,for major aftershocks,at New Jersey ,if at all it comes ,as follows.

Date 6th April 24....15.00 UTC
Date 7th April 24....16.00 UTC
Date 8th April 24...17.30 UTC
Disclaimer Applies for above Date and time

Thursday, April 04, 2024

Waters deep inside Earth and my theory of Earthquake prediction

 Waters Deep inside the Earth and Tidal pull theory for Earthquake Prediction


Recent research by  North Western University, Illinois  proved that,the water deep inside the Earth at a depth of 700 kms,in sponge form,ringwoodite rock, is three times more in volume than the waters in oceans combined.

This necessarily imply that

1) My theory of predicting major Earthquakes by tidal pull method ,hold solid ground, considering tidal pull on this much volume of water.
2) The existing theory ,explaining deep quakes 600 to 700 km deep ,is absolutely wrong.The explanation of deeper quakes ,by descending plates at subduction zone ,at this much depth is just an eye wash.
3) In fact tidal pull apply at all levels
a) On water at 700 km depth produce ,deeper quakes,by partially breaking the encircling magma
b) on magma just below Earth crust of 100 km thick, create upper and destructive quakes
c) When  magma is below the mouth of a volcano,  hightide forces may break open the mouth and an Eruption occurs
d) On Ocean water it creates hightides and low tides
e)On Earth crust ,it gives bulging ( 1 to 2 mtr) effect on upper crust
f) On monsoon clouds ,it drags the moist cloud at hightide zone ,and my induce cloud bursts
g)On Atmosphere it creates patial vacuum at low tide zone ,which forces air to fill up the vacuum. This air when pass over ocean water at 26 to 28 degrees Celsius,  gether latent heat from water and produce a tropical cyclones.
THUS THE POTENT DATES PREDICTED FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKES BY ME ARE ALSO PRONE TO
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
DEEP QUAKES
CLOUD BRUST
TROPICAL CYCLONES


4) The concept of declaring plate tectonics as a sole reason for Earthquakes is not correct.
5) The tidal pull on this much volume of water ,in whichever form it is, can never be negligible ,considering hightide levels in oceans.

Reply for Roger

 One of my friend, a retired USGS seismologist, have opined that ,there is no sense in prediction of major Earthquake dates ,if  I can not predict with cent percent accuracy of date,time ,magnitude and location


Please have a look at following issues.Do we have 100%knowledge about the subject ? Why are we doing it all?

1)  How and why the big bang happened ?
Who has collected all those mass to explode?
Still we are working on the theory .
2) How human brain works ,how many neurons are there ,exact number ?
Even than we open the skull and do surgery.
3) Are seismologist and geophysist aware that ,there is three times more water deep inside the Earth ,than in oceans?
And still we boldly say Earthquake occurs soly due to plate tectonics?
By the way ,this is the base of my tidal pull theory.
Roger , what woukd have happened ,if we did not move ,if we do not know 100%
If I plan something for tomorrow, it is also wrong. God only know who all will survive and see tomorrow.
What would have happened, if right brothers had stopped the work ,looking at huge ,raw plane which can hardly fly few yards?
How the laptops, I phones ,I pads would have developed, if we have stopped looking as huge ,bulky ,very inefficient first computer ?
So ,start .
Only condition is going in right direction with right purpose.

Wednesday, April 03, 2024

Epicenter location hypothesis-answer

 

Roger Hunter

11As per your calculations, I am using 50%of time availablein a day, in my epicenter location hypothesis.So there are 50% chances of my hypothesis going right.

Here is the answer

 
1) Yes ,for Rising and setting 180 minutes is correct
2) For Zenith and Nadir of Sun and Moon..
Even if we count like this
Sun ...Zenith.....45+45=90
Sun ..Nadir.......45+45=90
Moon Zenith.....45+45=90
Moon Nadir......45+45=90
Total.....360
Grand Total 360+180=540
However, you say it is 720 minutes
3) 540/1440= 0.375 ie 37.5 %
4) if the results are above 40% ,it is well above odds
5) One thing you forgot is, most of the dates are either full Moon ,New Moon or 8th day of cycle when both are at square position. In such case the % become exactly half ,because the Rising, setting, Zenith and Nadir time coincides.


Amit Dave 

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

7.4 Taiwn quake,a date hit prediction

 Roger

Watch out.
A date hit 7+ earthquake prediction for 2nd April 24.
A strongest Earthquake, in 25 years at Taiwan.(7.4) at 23.57 hrs UTC on 2nd April.
Now ,no one should have doubts about my major earthquake prediction theory .
Lat Long at epicenter are 23.8 N and
12l.5 East
Now again  check my epicenter hypothesis.
Moon is at Zenith, (107East at the time of quake)with margin of 45 minutes (twilight zone margin)
My epicenter hypothesis says,in nutshell..
The epicenter of major Earthquake will be at a location where..
The Sun or Moon are at Zenith or Nadir ,with 45 minutes margin
Or
The Sun or Moon are rising or setting ,with twilight zone margin