Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Earthquake predicion for September 2011

Earthquake prediction for September

With little modification to my Annual prediction for september ,here are the probable dates

1)2nd September 2011-------6.8

2)5th September 2011-------6.5

3)12th September 2011-----7.0

4) 27th/28th Sept 2011-----7.2


9th and 16th are under observation for 6+ quake

PLACES ARE NOT KNOWN

Amit

37 comments:

AMIT said...

hi
Scientists have warn that,Tokyo can be hit by major quakes (7+) any time now.The seismic activities have increased

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/tokyo_told_to_prepare_for_massive_FuU2W6YsiTWQKNqu4dlpQM

Now, sch predictions are not good for people at large and ay create panic
Seismologist and Government can keep a close watch on prone dates mentioned here with(Though place can not be predicted )
It can be very well stated that,the chances of major quakes (7+) occurring on prone dates is very high
I wish Government of Japan and Seismologist all over the Globe watch such dates and find solution to save some lives,instead of creating panic among people at large with such news. Even if ,it is necessary ,the work should be done without such publication of news ( with place predictions)
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
An unusal 4.3 quake at Grearter LA on predicted date
Any comments?

AMIT said...

hi
7.1 quake at Fox Island on 2nd September 2011 as predicted
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
One more quake
6.4 at Santiago on predicted date ie 2nd September 2011
How many date hit proofs are required?
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
20th September 2011 is under observation for 6.3 to 6.6 quake
As Jupiter has changed the direction on 30th August 2011 and it is approching closer to Earth,(4AU units) each transit movememt(0,90 and 180 degrees) of Moon with Sun and Jupiter may cause quakes of 6+
If the Moon is closer on that date and /or it is at extreme declination the magnitude of quake will be consigerable
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
One ore at Vanuattu,7.0 at midnight between 3rd and 4th September 2011.
Have anybody thought ,why there are so many 6.5+ quakes in last 3 days? OR It is by chance?
It was earlier pointed out that ,whenever bigger planets changes tha direction from direct to retro gate or vice a versa ,the chances og bigger quakes increases
Watch till September 2011 end,as Jupiter has changed the direction in first week if September
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Japan Cyclone Talas( one of the worast to hit Japan since 2004 ) left nearly 26 people dead

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8741298/Typhoon-in-Japan-leaves-26-dead-and-dozens-missing.html

The dates are also prone to Volcanic erupion and Cyclones
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Exactly as predicted , a quake of 6.4 occured at Tonga ,to day ,ie on 5th September 2011.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0005pa8.php

Please note the date and magnitude accuracy
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
6.6 earthquake at Northen Sumatra on 5th September 2011,as predicted
please not e the accuracy of date and magnitude
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
A morderate earthquake,4.2, at Delhi yesterday neight
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
6.4 earthquake at Vancouver as expected and predicted
watch dates till September 2011 end
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Mount Etna erupt again on the date predicted ie 9th September.
Some of the dates are prone to major quakes ( all over the globe) as well as volcanic eruptions

http://www.itv.com/news/etna-erupts-again24825/


AMit

AMIT said...

hi
Now when we have 6.4 quake at Vancouver on 9th September 2011, the quake on 16th is almost certain (6.5-place not known )
This is termed by me as cycle quake theory.
On prone months major quakes occurs after every 7 to 7 and half days.
This is because Moon( the main trigger) acquires another potent position (90 degrees apart ) after every 7-7.5 days
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
One of my friend Roger ,has posted all my prediction as archive

http://quakepredictions.weebly.com/amit-daves-predictions.html

please check
Amit

Fasting Minute said...

We had two in Chengdu, China. One on Sept. 3rd around 1 PM and one on Sept. 5th around 6 PM. The last one was a mild tremor that lasted for quite sometime. It's difficult to find information about it in English...

AMIT said...

Hi
September 2011 was predicted dates as well as actual quakes
please see

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/2011/08/earthquake-predicion-for-september-2011.html
or look at the right side of this blog and go for September 2011 prediction

I am convinced that most of the major quakes (6.5+) can be predicted with considerable accuracy.
Also I am convinced that , if some 30 to 35 odd dates per year are selected ( which are most prone to quakes),almost 90% of damaging quakes can be predicted
The only problem is pin pointing locations. If time accuracy is with in half an Hour , may be location ,as per resultant pull can be fixed
I am working on , as to whether we can locate a band of longitude or latitude,for the day and + or - 4 t 6 Hrs
I believe ,it is possible ,in principle. The point is we have to put in enough resources both in terms of time and money.
May be some day Government, seismology departments and NGO
realize this

Amit

AMIT said...

HI
A Quake of 6.2 occured at New Guinea,PNG on 12th (2244 UTC)
Yes, we may call it a miss.The date is correct but the magnitude is not as expected(7.0)
Moon at maximum declination and at Perigee is more potent than full Moon( when other indicaters are there)
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
I shall give reasons for possible quakes till September end 2011.
Let us observe which criteria is more potent
We have pre requisites of major planet (jupiter) changing the direction is full filled ,till September end
Now
1)16th September
at 1400 UTC Jupiter and Moon Coisides.
2)20th September- Moon at Maximum
declination and Moon at 90 degrees to Sun
3)27th September-
New Moon,Moon at Perigee(closest-57.1ER-Earth Radious), Moon Venus Conjuction, Moon at Equater on 26th
Hence, looking at the strenght, 27th September 2011 will give major quake
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
In the first week of September 2011, we have Jupiter changing the direction. Hence ,complete September 2011 will witness major quakes. Also <Jupiter is closer to the Earth (4.5 AU-Astronomical Units ie Average Distance of Earth to Sun)
All dates when
1) Moon makes 0,90 or 180 degrees with Jupiter

2) Moon Phases Full Moon ,New Moon and Neap tide dates

3) Moon at perigee or at Maximum declinations
Watch
Amit

AMit

AMIT said...

hi

I believe there is a strong link between major earthquakes and Volcano eruptions (any where in the world)

The explation is like this

On the prone date for major quake, the tidal pull is more.When the pull exceeds a limit ,it breaks the crust (the semi solid magma under pull-high tide like one in oceans) and the quakes occurs

On the same day ,as the Earth moves in Orbit and along axis, the pull may come under mouth of volcano, and may break open the mouth on the same day

This is why we notice some of the volcano erupting along with major quakes some where else on the globe

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Strong Earthquakes,6.0+ at Japan ,Cuba

Predicted date is 16th September 2011
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/5634713/Earthquakes-off-Japan-Cuba

Accuracy is + 0r - one day
In fact, there could be few more quakes tomorrow ie 16th September 2011
AMit

AMIT said...

hi
7.2 earthquake at Fiji region on 15th September 2011 at 1930 UTc.
please note the accuracy

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
7.2 earthquake at Fiji region on 15th September 2011 at 1930 UTc.
please note the accuracy

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Strong earthquakes of 6.6 and 6.2 hit North coast of Japan on 16th September 2011 as predicted
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
If we see NEIC records from 1st September 2011 to 16th September 2011 we have following quakes

6+-----------12

6.5+----------5

7.0+----------2
Looking at the long range averages
we have on an average quakes per year
6.0+-------150 ie 6.0 in 15 days
6.5+------ 45 ie 2 in 15 days
7.0+-------15 ie 1.5 in 15 days
Are these quakes in September are not above average?

These are due to Jupiter changing the direction and closer to Earth(4.5AU-Astronomical Units-average distance from Earth to Sun
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
One more,6.8 at NE India to day ie 18th September 2011

Amit

Anonymous said...

6.0 - 6.9 temblors occur, on average, every other day somewhere in the world.

What you're doing, and I appreciate the effort, is still the equivalent of predicting that you're going to have a bowel movement in the next 48 hours. You might not know when, but if you're breathing, it's gonna happen sometime, somewhere, somehow.

AMIT said...

hi
What we are talking about is 6.5+ quakes ,which do not occur on daily basis. Even 6+ quakes occur every 3 or 4th day
7+ quakes occur only 15 per year

You can compare the quakes in September 2011 vis a vis average quakes round the globe
Even method of calculiting averages is misleading.
Quakes occurs in clusters. Some dates are prone and some months are more prone to quakes. While calculiting averages we do not take in to account the same
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Cycle quake theory for major aftershocks

Few points to be noted
1) As of now predicting place is not possible,however,it is possible in principle
2) Idea of this blog is to make people aware that, WHAT WE AND SCIENCE KNOW IS NOT ALL. THE CAUSE OF EARTHQUAKES ARE DIFFERENT.
3) I do not intend to spread panic among people
4) However, as you have asked about the recurrence of quake at the same place,I wold state as
follows
The quakes may occur at the same place ,which is known as aftershocks and ,it is quit likely that the major aftershocks occur between 7th and 8th day
So, If you ask me about whether to remain alert,I would suggest the dates 26th and 27th September 2011
Amit

wangmo said...

Either you come up with a definite prediction date and place or stop creating panic by publishing such things on web. You will never be able to relate to the pain and suffering of the affected people and would pray to God that nobody goes through the pain and suffering like we did....so pls be sensible while posting such vague yet scary predictions on web.

AMIT said...

Wangmo
I am sorry if I have hurt somebody in the process.
I apologize for the same.However when I am not giving place there is no question of creating the panlc.How if seismologist and geologist predict like this(and they did it several time).There will be a major quake at certain place either tomorrow or after400 years?.what do you call this?
A prediction?
Any way sorry once again.

AMIT said...

hi
quakes of less than 6 occur almost on daily basis and Japan being probe to quakees ,there is no surprise that we get quakes of 4 to 5 on daily basis.
Points to be noted are
1)I do not predict place and hennce ,there should not be any panic due to my predictions
2)By this standered , we should stop all research on earthquakes.
3) On the other hand how siesmologist are being tried in court of law for neglience in duty ?
Japan , as I know , is very commited to earthquake research , and we do not expect Japan to back track on its research
Any way, the issue is wide open for debate
How many of my readres feel that , I am creating panic by predicting dates?

AMIT said...

hi
At least 20 peoplw dead in Typhoon in Pholipines

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/28/world/asia/in-the-philippines-18-die-in-typhoon.html

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Only some quakes of 5.4 to 5.6 on 27/28th September. A typhoon at Philippines
Well this may be treated as a miss
Amit

AMIT said...

Well ,there are several volcanic eruptions during 27th /28th September 2011. This could be a possible cause for less magnitude quakes,as the inside magma pressure is released due to eruption,


http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/09/etnas-latest-fireworks-show/
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
During 1.09.2011 to 30.09.2011 ,as per NEIC record following quakes occured
1) 6+------16
2) 6.5+----8
3) 7+------2
This is way above normal earthquakes per month
eg 6+-------12
7+-------1
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
A major Typhoon hit China between 27/28th (landfall),4,70,000 evacuated and caused and 31 US $ loss to China

http://in.news.yahoo.com/470-000-evacuated-typhoon-nesat-lashes-china-201524621.html

Time and again it is proved that ,the some dates are prone to Natural disasters

AMit