Theory of major Earthquake prediction
THINK OUT OF THE BOX. MAJOR EARTHQUAKES
CAN BE PREDICTED
BY SINGLE AUTHOR
AMIT
.J. DAVE
E
MAIL- amitjdave@yahoo.com
j.amit.d@gmail.com
Please visit my blog
https://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com
for regular predictions of major 6+
quakes
(A)
ABSTRACT-
I am basically, a mechanical engineer from Mumbai, India. The
passion for earthquake
Prediction was started way back in 1993 when
great Latur, Maharashtra earthquake occurred.
On September 30th 1993. Since then,
I am maintaining a blog wherein major (6+) quakes are
predicted and dates with magnitudes are
uploaded well in advance. https;//earthquake-
prediction.blogspot.com
As
we know the existing theory of plate tectonics cannot predict major earthquakes,
and it
has been accepted by the science and
seismologist. There are various short comings of plate
tectonics theory, which is not the topic to be
discussed here.
Here the theory of tidal pull on semi solid
magma and Earth crust is considered to explain
the Türkiye earthquakes of 6th
February 2023 (7.8 and 7.5 magnitude). Before
proceeding further please have a look at my
blog and linked in postings where these
predictions were made in advance. More over
in all of Linked in prediction postings, with
theory, USGS and SSA were marked /tagged
The
Gist of the theory which will be used to explain the major quakes at Türkiye is
as
follows
1)
Earth consists of upper crust
and below which semi solid /molten magma.
2)
The tidal pull of Moon, Sun and major planets
acts on magma as well as Earth crust
3)
On a given potent date (as per
this theory) when this pull exceeds the threshold limit,
it Breaks the
crust at weaker plate boundaries and quake occurs. If it breaks open the
mouth of volcano
an eruption occurs. Thus, both major quakes and volcanic eruption
occur due to
tidal pull-on magma and Earth crust.
It
is requested not to discard this theory, without proper consideration. I am
aware that, tidal
pull theory has been discarded earlier by
seismologist, only by considering Moon phases
(Which is not correct)
(B ) MANUSCRIPT TEXT- (THEORY )
Earth consists of an upper Crust of about 100 km thick (Lithosphere) and
a ductile hot
Asthenosphere of about 660 kms thickness. Then
comes lower mantle, outer core and inner
Core.
What, I believe causes an earthquake (major 6+) is the tidal pull exerted
on ductile
Asthenosphere of around 660 kms . The Moon,
Sun and major planets like Jupiter, Mars
, Venus and Saturn (in that order) also
exert pull on magma as well as upper crust .
When the tidal pull exceeds a critical limit, the magma breaks the crust
partially and an
earthquake
occurs. If the pull can break open the mouth of a volcano an eruption will
occur.
So both major quake and major eruption can
occur on a given potent date.
Since
tidal pull is inversely proportional to the cube of distances between two
planets /bodies
Moon has
maximum tidal pull and most of the quake triggers are decided by the position
of
the Moon.
Thus,
the theory says that, on a given potent date (as decided by this theory) more
6+ major
Quakes will occur all over the globe. Not
only that, the chances of a volcanic eruption are
fairly high during these dates.
Deciding the potent date/s
1)
First in a given month check the
distances of Sun and major planets. If Sun and
major planets (Jupiter,
Mars, Venus and Saturn in that order are closer/closest)
the Moon has potency to produce 6+ magnitude quakes when joins or
opposes them
The minimum distances are as
mentioned below
Sun …….0.983 AU (Astronomical unit
ie average distance of Earth to Sun)
Moon….57 ER (earth radius)
Jupiter … 3.9 AU
Mars…. 0.52 AU
Venus….0.28 AU
Saturn….8.5 AU
Now in a given month if more than one planet
is closer/closest, it is more potent
2)
Once the distances are known,
check whether in that given month any planet is at
maximum declinations or
closer to maximum declination (North or South).
Also check whether Sun is at Max
Declinations North or South
Maximum Declinations of planets and stand still positions
of the planets are very
important because
immediately after that, it will change the direction from North
to South or south to North. What actually happens is, due
to this change in
directions the tidal pull direction also suddenly changes and
there will be an
imbalance and jerk in the molten magma due to retardation
or acceleration. This
ultimately induce imbalance in the magma and it breaks the
crust, causing an
earthquake
Straight line
formation of Venus ,Earth and Great conjunction/opposition of Jupiter and
Saturn is most powerful for 7+ quakes
3) Venus plays a major role in
deciding the potency of the date. Venus closer
and at higher declinations should be watched carefully. Venus in straight line
with earth, Jupiter, Sun, Saturn is very potent. During great conjunction of
Jupiter and Saturn, when Venus joins both in line with Earth can induce 7+
quake.
WATCH FOR MAJOR CONUCTION /OPPOSITION OF JUPITER AND SATURN,
ALONGWITH VENUS JOINING AND MAKING A STRAIGHT LINE.
THUS WHEN JUPTER AND SATURN CLOSER AND IN GREAT CONJUCTION,
IF VENUS (CLOSER) JOINS NAD MAKE STRAIGHTLINE WITH EARTH ,SUN AND MOON HAS
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
Deciding the date and time
Now the exact
date is decided by the most powerful and fast-moving Moon.
When Moon joins or opposes Sun, Jupiter, Mars,
Venus (in that order) it creates a
trigger for quake. The date on which Moon is closest during
month and/or at
maximum declinations North or
South these dates are also potent. Often, we have
seen that, full Moon and New Moon
are more potent for major quakes. Eclipses are
still more powerful as Sun, Moon
and Earth remain in one plane also.
Thus, the date and
time will be decided by Moon
The time in UTC can be decided when Moon exactly
Joins/opposes Sun
/Jupiter,/Mars/ Venus ( whichever is potent ie closer and/or
having maximum
declinations)
Deciding magnitude
Magnitude in Richter scale can be decided by the potency of Moon, Sun
and other planets
have
on that day and time, ie how close they are and at what declination they are.
If
the Sun is closest and at Maximum declination, say in December or even during
November
to March (next year), Moon closest (57 ER ) and maximum declination
possible
(+ or -27 degrees), Jupiter, Mars, Venus and Saturn are closer/closest and at
near maximum
declinations, the quake could be well above 8.5 magnitude. The super
conjunction
of Jupiter and Saturn is most potent. During the year of super conjunction
when
other planets join ( 0 or 180 degree) the combination become most potent
Deciding locations
Location of major quakes can be decided by the
position of Moon and Sun in that
order, where they are at Zenith
and/or Nadir longitudes at the decided time with + or –
15 degrees of margin, the probability of
quake at that location is very high at those
longitudes.
As tidal pull is equally applicable to both side of the globe Zenith and
Nadir. both side
longitudes are prone to major quakes
Further, the locations where
Moon /sun are rising and/or setting at the time in UTC
decided as above, are also prone
to major quakes. This is because, at the low tide
locations the Earth crust can be
pulled apart due to high tide pull at Zenith and Nadir
It is true that,
the quakes occur mostly at plate boundaries. But this is because
the plate boundaries are weaker than crust and they give
way earlier when tidal
pull is nearby or just below the crust
In fact, what I believe is
THE PLATES ARE DUE
TO QUAKES AND THAT THE QUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATES
There are some inherent problems in pin
pointing only one location for amjaor,6+
quake,
. What we can find out is where (longitude)
the pull will be at the trigger
time. If the crust is solid, it may not break
at trigger time. It may take few hours
more or less than the trigger time
and in the meantime the locations shift due to
Earth rotation
Thus, the location fixing is very dynamic
process
WHAT IS FINALLY TO BE GIVEN AS A
GIST IS….
A)
DECIDE MONTH, DATE AND TIME AS PER
ABOVE THEORY WHEN MOON JOINS
/OPPOSES SUN OR MAJOR
PLANETS HAVING POTENCY
B)
LOCATE ZENITH AND NADIR POSITION OF MOON /SUN
AT THAT TIME
C)
THE LONGITUDES OF ZENITH AND NADIR
POSITION OF MOON /SUN, WITH + OR
-15 DEGREE OF LONGITUDES IS PRONE
FOR MAJOR QUAKES (6+)
D)
THE LOCATIONS WHERE MOON /SUN ARE RISING
/SETTING AT GIVEN POTENT
TIME ARE THE LOCATIONS FOR MAJOR QUAKE,
INCLUDING TWILIGHT ZONE.
E)
IF WE WANT TO REMAIN ALERT ON POTENT DATE,
OBSERVE THE TIME OF SUN
/MOON AT ZENITH /NADIR AND
RISING /SETTING AT QUAKE PRONE LOCATIONS.
Acknowledgement and reference- The author
have used data from the following sources for validating his theory
1)
https://earthquake.usgs.gov –
For earthquake data record and achieves
2)
www.fourmilab.ch/ -web
portal for distances and declinations of Sun, Moon and planets
3)
www.timeanddate.com for Sun, Moon location and day /night map
4)
https://www.heavens-above.com / for Declinations and Azimuth of planets
5)
Ephemeris- Janmbhoomi Ephemeris ( Gujarati version)
6)
Live position of Sun, Moon and Planets—Astro
chart lite- Google play store app
References – Data and resources
7)
Declination of planets - https://www.heavens-above.com/
8)
Ephemeris-– Janmabhoomi
ephemeris
9)
https;//earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com
10)
Live planet position and
retrograde motion etc – Astro charts
-lite
11)
Solar system live https://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar/action?sys=-Sf
12)
Sun moon location and day
light
https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html
13)
Quake- USGS web site
