Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Thursday, August 29, 2013

Earthquake prediction for September 2013

hi
 For September ,I find two potent dates for 6+ quakes
1) 13th/14th September 2013.......6.5
  please note 13th/14th date means from 12 Noon (UTC) on 13th to 12 Noon on 14th (UTC)

2)19th September 2013..... 6.1 ( a mild potency date)

Time window...+ or - one day
magnitude window...+ or -0.3
places ...not predicted

Amit

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Puzzling Moon tidal pull on ocean waters

hi
 Time and again  I was made to understand that, the tidal pull on earth of planets is negligible except some pull by Moon on Earth. Hence, I have started to observe the high tide data of Mumbai (Bombay) port trust against the Moon position and distance
  In the current month ie August I have some puzzling observations. As the other planets including Sun tidal pull is negligible (as it is believed by science), I have only considered Moon distance ,declinations and aspect with Sun. The table is like this

Date....................Moon distance.........Moon declination...........High tide max at Mumbai port in mtrs
           
17th................57 ER(earth radius)....-19...................................3.76.....(Moon at perigee)

18th.............57.1...........................-16...................................4.06

19th.............57.4...........................-13...................................4.36

20th.............57.8..........................-9.....................................4.6....(Full Moon day)

21st..........58.4............................-4....................................4.74

22nd........59.1.........................0........................................4.78 (highest in August)..( Moon on Equator)

Now questions are
1) If only Moon is responsible (to the greater extent) ,why this anomaly? ie why highest on the day other than perigee of Moon?
2) If Sun is also considered why not highest on full Moon day?
3) Why it is highest on 0 declination? even when it is farther than at Perigee or full Moon day?
   Moon only closer to the extent of equator budge portion which far less than one ER (Earth radius)

Any idea? any ready software that can give me projected high tide amount on a given date at given place?

Amit

Friday, August 09, 2013

Earthquake prediction Evaluation- a physical check

hi
  I have been trying to figure out , the results of my prediction, statistically Roger is kind enough to help me in the process by ,special programs devised by him. However, it is some time becomes little confusing as to what the results suggests
  hence ,I have started to find it out ,with a hard ,laborious, physical verification.  It is really tough ,if one tries to figure it out ,by actual verification
  As a simplest and most crude method,  I took only two criteria ( ie part B  of trigger)
 The only two triggers i took were
1) Moon closest
2) Moon at maximum declination ( both north and south)

 Following criteria taken
 a) period 01.01.2005  to 31.12.2012
b) Date on which Moon Is closest taken
c) + or - one day taken for Maximum Moon declination

 No other criteria taken ,to make it simple for physical verification

 1) total days---------2880
 2) total quakes of 6.5+------389 ( actual quakes occurred)
3)  windows selected as per criteria-----532

hits
6.5+--------------108
7+........................41
7.5+.....................15
8+........................3


Actual quakes during selected period

6.5+........................389
7+...........................128
7.5+.......................44
8+..........................10

 It is up to readers to find out ,as to whether it is below or above average

please note
 This is very crude method , as i have not taken all criteria which I consider while giving dates. Roger have considered more criteria ( only left out was fine tuning and some aspects)
  Also, this is based on actual calculations, it is lengthy and laborious, There are chances that, one or two are missed or wrongly taken. But by and large it is fairly accurates

 Readers comments are expected
 Amit

Earthquake prediction for August 2013

hi
  Due to some unavoidable work, I could not calculate the probable dates for August 2013, in advance.
 After some preliminary calculations, it is observed that, there are no strong enough positions to induce 7+ quakes.
 The only probable date is
17th August 2013....................6.4 (+ or -0.3)
 Date window is + or - one day
Amit