Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Earthquake prediction for Decembar 2011

 Following dates and time are prone to major quakes as mentioned .(location of quakes not predicted)

1)6th December 2011-------------------0815 UTC--------6.3

2)10th December 2011-----------------1515 UTC--------6.5

3)20th December 2011-----------------1115 UTC-------6.6

4)24th December 2011----------------1715 UTC--------6.9


Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Bolivia Earthquake of 6.6 on 22nd November 2011


Watch the first quake of 6.6 at Bolivia on 22nd November 1848Hrs.

and accuracy of prediction

One question to pro plate tectonic theory members

Question- The quake at Bolivia was very deep ie 533 kms below .The earth crust is mostly 50to 60 km thick


How this quake could originate as below as 533 kms. and what short of crust failure this quake could be?

Watch till 26th November ,the dates and times

(place not predicted)


Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Results of Year 2011 Earthquake prediction ,till October 2011

Here are the actaul quakes (7+)  as against predicted dates for the year 2011 ,till October 2011
1) January
  Prediction date -------------actual dates and quake
   4th------------------2nd at 2020Hrs UTC----7.2
     8th-----------------7th at 1432 Hrs--7.1
   9th------------------6th at 1903 Hrs---7.6
 22nd----------------20th at 1819 Hrs-----7.1

   5th-------------------3rd at 2255 Hrs UTC---7.0
   16th-----------------15th -----7.3
  Thus there are 9 Hits of 7+ quakes
 If you do not consider little inaccurcy of 2/3 Hrs ,there are 5 dot hits (+ or - one day window and 7+)

There are 19  quakes of 7+ during January to October 2011(incluning clusters)
The average number of 7+ quakes per year are 15
thus odds are 15/120----120 because ,total days 360/ 3 day window period
                       ie 1/8   ie one in eight or 0.125
 Now 9 hits out of 19 is 9/19  0.473
 Even if we consider 5 hit out of 19 it comes to
              5/19 ie 0.263
Both way it is above random date selection or average occurances(even after taking in to account cluster of quakes)


Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Earthquake prediction for November 2011

 The probable dates for major earthquakes in November 2011 are

1) 10th November 2011-------6.3

2) 13th November  2011------6.5

3) 24/25th November 2011---6.7

location not predicted