Tuesday, December 28, 2010
please see my prediction dated 25th Dcember 2010, where ,an earthquakes of 6.3 to 6.6 was predicted . Actual quake is 6.3 south of fiji Island ,to day, ie 28th december 2010( A date hit)
Also please see ,my web page where this was predicted (under -calender)
Monday, December 27, 2010
If we consider major earthquakes,7+,for prediction accuracy for the year 2010,it would be like this
1) There are 45 dates predicted for 6+ quakes.(some of them stated as 7+ also)
2)There were 22 quakes of 7+ in year 2010 (till 26th December 2010)
3)7+ quakes occured in window period of prediction are 12.
4) odds of getting 7+ quake in window period of + or - one day ( ie 3 day window ) is 0.18
Now ,if we consider 8+ quakes,there is only one 8+ quakes on 27th February (chile).The date predicted was 28th february 2010. so ,it is in window period.
what is odd of getting 8+ quake in 3 day window?
1) You said ,my %hit is 60% and % miss is 13%.It comes to total 73%.What about remaining 23%?
2) Counting clusters of quakes (ie total 165 per for 2010),for averaging, is unfair
3) I have a very simple logic
If my predictions are not good than random dates,any body,you, can do the same thing.If we both give dates till ,say, next six months,than the chances of success or failure are equal for both of us.
so, by this blog I invite ,one and all ,who wish to test the random dates, should post their dates on this blog by January 15th 2011.
The rules are
1) quakes predicted should be 6+
2) time window period is + or - one day ,ie 3 day window
3)If time is given ,it should be in UTC
4) Magnitude window is + or -0.3
5) If time is given, the time window period will be + or -36 Hrs (ie 3 day window)
One,which you claim statisticaly,need to be proved practicaly.
so if 10 persons give radom dates at least 8 should have 96% hits,as you claim
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Time and again it is proved that, Moon at perigee,fastest and with any other combination may induce major quake. This time Mars is also fastest.
Though,in fact, I did not expect this nuch quake. Actaly my preidction next was between 27th and 28 th Dcember 2010 (around 6.3 to 6.6)
I failed to understand ,why and how ,plate tectonic theory says , major earthquakes are not due to tidal pull.
In fact,the Moon quakes are believed to be induced by Earths tidal pull,but not vice versa.
More interesting thing is Moons tidal pull on Earth is far more than Earths tidal pull on Moon.
please see my web page
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Here is the results of my earthquake prediction
During year 2010 ,ie 1st January to 22nd December the results are as follows
1)6+ quakes occurred--165
2) number of date predicted-45
3) Window period + or - 1 day ,ie 3 day window
4)% of time of the year under window period--37%
5)37 % of total quakes is --61
6) Actual 6+ quakes in window period is ----77
7) Number of hits --37
8)Number of misses----8
9)% of hits---82%
If we consider only one quake (6+) per day from NEIC records, total dates on which 6+ (at least one ) occured is ---118 only insted of 165 with muliple quakes per day.
please see my web page
Thus ,it is well above average quakes
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
please note three major quakes on the predicted date of 21st December 2010
Are these by chance? or fluke?Let us be open about it.Can plate tectonic explain such clusters of major quake,on given date and on different plate boundries?
In fact averaging out of major quakes (6+) ie 140 odd in a year is misleading. Earthquakes occurs in clusters. If I give 40 odd dates in a year for 6+ quakes and with window period of + or - 24 hrs ,my average will be too high
please see my web page
Pleasee note yet another date hit prediction. Predition posted well in advance
Predicted date--21 st December 2010--6.5
please see my web page for theory ,FAQs , links and forum
Friday, December 17, 2010
We are approaching lunar eclipse on comming full Moon. The question frequently asked is whether eclipses induce more quakes?
Answer is- Not necessarily.
In fact,provided other parameters are present ( like major planets chanaging direction , Moon at perigee,close aspects etc),eclipses give more magnitude quakes.
This is because on eclipses Sun ,(Earth) and Moon are not only opposing or joining ,but they are in the same plane,as the shadow of one covers the other
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
please see my prediction of 6th /7th December 2010 for 6.7 quake.As per cycle quake theory also 8th day from last quake (ie 30th November 2010 is prone for quake)
now note following quakes on 8th December 2010
1) 6.5 at south sandwich island
2)6.1 at Philippines
you can also verify the same from link of earthquakes (real time -USGS) provided on this blog page
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
My cycle quake theory states-
If there is a prone date, which is fixed as per my theory, the dates/days 15 days and 7 and half days before and after (predicted date)are also prone for quakes.
Note quakes in November 2010 are
3rd,10th,16/17 th ,23rd and 30th November. All quakes were more than 6.0 (except on 16/17 th -5.9)
This happens due to various position of Moon ( a main trigger in earthquakes)
Let one date is fixed as main quake date ( as per theory). Now ,as Moon moves 90 degrees every 7 days (approx),before and after evrey 7 and half days, it occupies yet another similar ,but less potent location.
Thus cycle quakes occur
In fact, it is easiest way to predict a major after shock ,at a place ,where a major quake (7+) have already occurred.
I would go to the extent of saying, people should be warned ,on 7/8th day and 14/15th day for aftershock after a major quake of 7+