Can earthquakes be predicted?

Total Pageviews

Search This Blog

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Major earthquakes predicted for December 2013


 The month of December 2013, as per my prediction will witness major quakes sometimes exceeding 7.5. It is also predicted that,these dates are prone for volcanic eruption also. Both natural disasters follow the same theory

1) 3rd/4th December 2013................7.4

2)12th December.............................6.6

3) 17th/18th December....................7.0

4)22nd December...........................6.7

5)31st December/1st January 2014.......7.5

3rd/4th means ......12 Noon from 3rd to 12 Noon 4th

Time window ...+ or - one day

Magnitude window....+ or - 0.3

 I also predict that on 3rd/4th and 31st/1st  window there will be more than one  quake

Places not predicted

Amit

Sunday, November 17, 2013

7.8 Earthquake at Scotia sea on 17th November 2013-a date hit prediction

hi
 please note a powerful quake of 7.8 at Scotia sea on 17th Nov 2013 at 9.05 UTC  and my prediction
17th at 15.15 Hrs of 6.5+ quake in - Earthquake prediction for November 2013-
 watch the accuracy of date and time
 Now ,how can anybody say ,this is just by chance?

Amit

Monday, November 04, 2013

Earthquake prediction (6.5+)Rogers date ( my predicted) list --why not matching with my list

Roger
 Here are the details of why your dates ,should not be included in 6.5+ prediction list
dd.mm.yyyy

12.01.2009...Double dates you have taken like 12/13th
18.01.2009.. not in your original list of 232 dates and not predicted
17.05.2009....double dates
6.9.2009...6.4 quake predicted
4.10.2009...6.1
20.10.2009..double dates
6.06.2010....5.06.2010 overlaps
26.06.2010..yes it is missed by me..and a date hit for 6.5+
9.06.2010..not in your list and not predicted
1.07.2011..double
3.09.2011..not in original list
16.09.2011.. do...
27.09.2011.double
12.10.2011..6.2
26.10.2011..double
10.11.2011..6.3
6.12.2011....6.3
7.12.2011....6.3
19.12.2011..not in original list
25.12.2011..double 24.12.2011 taken
2.01.2012..6.2
23.01.2012...6.3
16.02.2012...6.3
21.02.2012...6.2
24.02.2012...6.4
21.03.2012...6.4
15.04.2012..6.3
22.04.2012..6.2
14.05.2012..6.3
28.05.202...6.3
19.06.2012...6.4
26.06.2012...6.4
01.07.2012...0 value roger have taken
2.07.2012...double
16.07.2012...not in original list
19.07.2012..6.2
22.07.2012..6.3
31.08.2012..6.3
15.09.2012..6.4
30.09.2012..6.3
19.10.2012..taken at sr no 143
29.10.2012..6.2
06.12.2012...6.3
19.12.2012...6.2
15.01.2013..6.3
10.02.2013..6.4
26.02.2013.....YES MISSED BY ME AND A MISS ALSO
11.03.2013..6.3
19.03.2013..6.4
31.03.2013...double
17.06.2013...6.4
30.06.2013..6.3
08.07.2013...6.4
17.08.2013..6.4
19.09.2013...6.1
19.10.2013..not in your list, and 18.10.2013 taken
04.10.2013...6.4
24.10.2013..6.3
3.10.2013..double
 ALL NOVEMBER DATES WAS NOT TAKEN EARLIER AS YOU HAVE DONE EVALUATION IN OCTOBER END

Now find .only two dates missed by me
one date hit and one miss

Amit



My Earthquake prediction (6.5+) from November 2006 to October 2013


SR NO DATE
PREDICTED
NAG, PREDICTED ACTUAL QUAKES + OR - ONE DAY Roger list sr number remark
1 19-11-2006 6.5 0 1
2 11/12/2006 7.2 0 2
3 18-12-2006 6.9 0 3
4 24-12-2006 6.4 0 4
5 8/4/2007 7.5 0 5
6 24-04-2007 7.5 0 6
7 28-04-2007 7.5 0 7
8 2/5/2007 7.5 0 8
9 10/5/2007 7.8 0 8
10 16-06-2007- 7 0 9
11 13-08-2007 7 0 3
12 22.8-2007 7 0 14
13 22-12-2007 7 0 15
14 29-12-2007 7 0 16
15 4/5/2008 8 0 17
16 5/5/2008 8 0 18
17 10/5/2008 8 6.8 on 10-05-2008 19
18 13-05-2008 8 7.9 on12-05-2008 20
19 17-05-2008 8 0 21
20 20-05-2008 8 0 22
21 20-10-2008 6.9 6.9 on 19-10 27
22 2/1/2009 6 7.6 on 3-01-2009 29
23 4/1/2009 7.2 ditto 30
24 11/1/2009 7.1 0 31 12-01 not taken 
25 15-01-09 7.4 7.4, 6.7 on 15-01-09 33
26 26-01-09 6.9 0 35
27 9/2/2009 7.1 0 36
28 4/3/2009 6.6 0 37
29 6/3/2009 6.9 0 38
30 15-04-09 6.5 6.7 on 16-04 39
31 22-04-09 6.7 0 40
32 9/5/2009 6.6 0 41
33 18-05-09 7.2 0 42 an d 43
34 24-05-09 6.7 0 44
35 6/6/2009 6.8 0 45
36 13-06-09 6.5 0 46 mag taken 7
37 16-06-09 6.5 0 47 mag taken 7.2
38 20-06-09 6.5 0 48 mag taken 7.1
39 22-06-09 6.5 0 49 ditto 7.4
40 3/10/2009 6.5 0 51
41 11/10/2009 6.8 0 53
42 13-10-09 7 0 54
43 24-10-09 7 7.0  on24-10 0 roger have not taken
44 18-10-09 6.9 0 55
45 24-12-09 6.6 0 58
46 26-12-2009 6.5 0 59
47 1/1/2010 7.2 0 60
48 3/1/2010 7 7.1 and 6.5 on 3-01-2010 61
49 15-01-10 6.7 0 62
50 18-01-10 6.6 0 63
51 30.01.10 6.5 0 64
52 15-02-2010 6.6 0 65
53 28-02-10 6.8 8.8 and 6.9 on 27-02 66
54 11/3/2010 6.5 7.2 and 6.9 on 11-03-2010 67
55 15-03-10 6.9 6.6 and 6.5 on 14-03 68
56 29-03-10 7 6.6 on 30-03 69
57 11/4/2010 6.5 6.8 on 11-04-2010 70
58 25-04-10 6.6 6.5 on 26-4-10 71
59 20-05-10 6.6 0 73
60 23-05-10 7 6.5 on 24-05-10 74
61 27-05-10 7 7.2 on 27-05-10 75
62 29-05-10 7 0 76
63 5/6/2010 7.1 0 77
64 12/6/2010 7.1 7.5 on 12-0610 79
65 22-06-10 7.1 6.7 on 26-06-10 80
66 4/7/2010 6.8 0 81
67 11/7/2010 6.8 0 82
68 16-07-10 7.1 0 83
69 23-07-10 6.9 7.4 and 7.3 on 23-07-2010 84
70 26-07-2010 7.1 0 85
71 31-07-10 6.5 0 86
72 10/8/2010 7 7.3 on 10-08-2010 87
73 7/8/2010 6.8 0 not taken by roger
74 12/8/2010 7.3 7.1 and 6.9 on 12 and 13th -08-10 88
75 24-08-2010 7 0 89
76 27-08-10 7.4 0 90
77 1/9/2010 7 0 91
78 3/9/2010 7.3 7 on 3-09-10 92
79 8/9/2010 7.6 0 93
80 15-09-10 6.6 0 94
81 23-09-10 7.2 0 95
82 30-09-2010 6.9 7.2 on 29-09-2010 96
83 6/10/2010 6.6 0 97
84 9th oct 2010 6.6 0 98
85 20-10-2010 6.9 6.7 on 21-10-2010 99
86 23-10-2010 6.7 0 100
87 2/11/2010 6.6 0 101
88 16-11-2010 7 0 102
89 21-11-2010 6.8 0 103
90 23-11-2010 6.7 0 104
91 29-11-2010 6.7 6.8 on 30-11-2010 105
92 6/12/2010 6.6 0 106
93 21-12-2010 6.8 6.5 on 20-12-2010 107
94 27-12-2010 6.7- 0 108
95 19-01-2011 7 7.2 on 18-01-2011 109
96 25-01-2011 7 0 110
97 19/2/2011 7 0 111
98 21-02-2011 7 6.5 on 21-02-2011 112
99 20-03-2011 7.5 0 113
100 8/4/2011 6.5 7.1 on 7-04-2011 not taken by roger
101 11/4/2011 6.5 6.7 on 11 -04-2011 not taken by roger
102 17-04-2011 6.5 6.6 on 18-04-2011 115
103 7/5/2011 6.8 0 116
104 16-05-2011 6.9 6.6 on 16-05-2011 117
105 29-05-2011 6.7 0 118
106 12/6/2011 6.5 0 120
107 15-06-2011 7 6.5 on 16-06-2011 121 and 122
108 30-06-2011 7 0 123 and 124
109 9/7/2011 7 7.1 on10-07-2011 125
110 31-07-2011 6.5 6.7 on 31-07-2011 126
111 6/8/2011 6.5 0 127
112 13-08-2011 6.8 0 128
113 22-08-2011 7 0 not taken by roger
114 29-08-2011 7.1 6.8 on 30-08-2011 not taken by roger
115 2/9/2011 6.8 6.5 and 6.8 on 2-09-2011 130
116 5/9/2011 6.5 6.6 on 5-09-2011 131
117 12/9/2011 7 0 132
118 28-09-2011 7.2 0 133 and 134
119 21-10-2011 6.6 7.4 on 21-10-2011 137
120 27-10-2011 6.9 6.9 on 28-10-2011 138 ad 139
121 13-11-2011 6.5 0 141
122 25-11-2011 6.7 0 142 and 143
123 10/12/2011 6.5 6.7 on 11-12-2011 145
124 20-12-2011 6.6 0 147
125 24-12-2011 6.9 0 148
126 9/1/2012 6.5 6.6 on 9-01 and 7.2 on 10-01-2012 150
127 19-01-2012 6.6 0 151 and 152
128 12/2/2012 6.5 0 154
129 8-032012 6.7 6.7 on 9-03-2012 158
130 15-03-2012 6.5 6.9 on 14-03-2012 159 and 160
131 7/4/2012 6.5 0 162 and 163
132 6/5/2012 6.8 0 166
133 8/5/2012 6.6 0 167
134 22-05-2012 6.5 0 169
135 4/6/2012 6.6 0 171
136 10/6/2012 6.5 0 172
137 29-06-2012 6.6 0 175
138 3/7/2012 7.1 0 177 and 178
139 29-07-2012 6.8 6.5 on 28-07-2012 not taken by roger
140 25-08-2012 6.6 6.6 on 26-08-2012 180 and 181
141 8/9/2012 6.6 0 183
142 23-09-2012 6.7 0 186 and 187
143 19-10-2012 6.8 0 189
144 15-11-2012 7 6.5 on 16-11-2012 191 and 192
145 13-12-2012 7.1 0 194
146 27-12-2012 6.8 0 196
147 10/1/2013 7 0 199
148 23-01-2013 6.5 0 201
149 6/2/2013 7 7.9,7.1 and 7.0 on 6-02-2013 203 and 204
150 18-02-2013 6.5 0 206
151 21-02-2013 6.6 0 207
152 6/3/2013 6.5 0 not taken by roger
153 1/4/2013 6.8 0 210 and 211
154 27-05-2013 6.6 0 214 and 215
155 8/6/2013 6.7 0 216
156 24-06-2013 7 6.5 on 24-06-2013 218 and 219
157 22-07-2013 6.6 6.5 on 21-07-2013 222
158 14-09-2013 6.5 0 224 and 225
159 11/10/2013 6.7 0 229 and 230
160 18-10-2013 6.6 6.5 on 19-10-2013 231
Total 160 dates predicted and 53 hits with + or - one day window period

odds are 0.3 .hence out of 160, 48 hits are expected

It is above average

Sunday, November 03, 2013

My own physical evaluation of my 6.5 + earthquake predictions

hi
 Recently my earthquake predictions are being evaluated by Roger and Brain on the following forum


http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html

 It was concluded by the evaluates that, my predictions are below average and that if any one gives random dates,he can beat my predictions( as I am below statistical average.
  As I am little skeptical of the Jones method of evaluation being followed, I have physically checked all my predictions taking in to consideration my blog dates as well as  Rogers list
 
 Here are my findings
 From 19.11.2006 to 18.10.2013 ,all quakes predicted by me ,those are 6.5 or above are

1) Total Prediction 161 dates ( 6 to 6.4 are not considered)
2) Actual 6.5 and above quakes .......54 ( in + or - one day window and UTC time)
Now
3) average/ odds of 6.5+ quakes is ...0.3 ie 30% chances of it to occur on random date with window
period
4)Actual rate is 54/161= 0.335 ie 33.5% which is above average

 Again ,the method was not fine tuned in the first couple of years ie 2006 to 2009 the rate was less .
If we consider years 2010 to 2013 ,th results are

1) Total predictions.......113 dates
2) hits.........................47 ( with + or - one day window)

Thus result is 47/113=0.416 ie 41.6% which is well above average

 If Roger wishes ,the actual dates compared with his list of 232 predictions can be posted or e mailed

Amit