Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Earthquake prediction for January 2016

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO MY ESTEEMED VIEWERS

Here are the probable dates for major quakes in January 2016

1) 31st/1st ......................6.3
2)8th Jan .........................6.5
3)15th Jan .....................6.7
4)22nd/23rd....................6.4

 This month is special as far as earthquakes are concerned in following way

1) Sun is closest in 3rd
2) Sun has already changed the direction from southward to Northward
3)Jupiter is very close
4) Jupiter is changing the direction on 7th
5) Mercury is also changing the direction on 4th

 In more generalized term, the last week of December and first 15 days of January are always more potent ( due to Sun closest and changing the declination. You must have observed that, some of the worst quakes are in last part of December or in first part of  January.

Thus, whenever, Moon becomes closest, or reaches the maximum declination, or joins or opposes Sun /Jupiter there are chances of major quakes (6..5+)

In this manner ,even the date 28th is some what potent to give quake of 6.0

Amit

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Earthquake prediction for December 2015

hi
  Probable dates of December 2015, for 6+ quakes ,are posted here
1)12th Dec 2015...........6.6

2)21st Dec 2015..........6.7

3)26th Dec 2015.........6.6

window period is + or - one day

 December is (generally) potent because Sun is closet and at maximum south declination and changing (stopping and moving towards North)

Amit Dave

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

7.5 quake at Peru on 25th Nov 2015

Hi
pl note 7.5 quake at peru to day ie  25th Nov 2015. Adate hit 7.5 prediction.
Are these 7+ predictions are by chance or flukes.

This month accuracy 100%. ie 4 out of 4 hits
 Wake up USGS...Wake up seismologosts.
 First think out of the box.and open mind , think as if it can be predicted to begin with
Amit

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

6.9 Chile earthquake on 11th November,a hit prediction and my cycle quake theory

pl not two major quakes of 6.9 at chile to day ie 11th Nov and the accuracy of my prediction date ie 12thNov
Also pl check my cycle quake theory. The Afghnistan quake was on 26th of Oct. Pl not the days difference of 14 or 15 days and another big quake.Also notr today is New Moon day
Any co incidence or just by chance or a fluke?
How many times would you call such hits as flukes?
Wake up USGS......wake up seismologist ...
wakeup authorities
Amit





Sunday, November 01, 2015

Earthquake prediction for November 2015

hi
 Here are some of the probable dates for major quakes (6+)

1)3rd November....6.6

2)12th November...6.4

3)20th ...................6.3

4)25th ..................6.5

window period  + or - one day

Amit Dave

Monday, October 26, 2015

7.7 earthquake at Hindukush on 26th October 2015

hi
  watch my earlier prediction and today 7.7 quake at Hindukush . pl note my earlier post where I have predicted major quakes between 24th and 28th.
  Are such major quake , just a coincidence?

 Also pl see the potential and triggers
1) Moon closest ...57 ER (Earth radius)
2)Jupiter Venus and Mars in close proximity.

  I ,now,would like to watch the time 24 Hrs after the major quake. The major quakes/aftershocks are most likely to occur after 12 Hrs/24 Hrs/8th Day and 15th Day...(termed as cycle quake theory)

Amit 

Monday, October 12, 2015

Earthquake Prediction for October 2015

Hi 
Here are some of the probable dates for October 2015
1) 18th Oct........6.3
2) 24th Oct........6.5
3) 27th Oct........6.7
window period +or - one day
Amit Dave

Earthquake prediction for Oct 2015 ..contd

Hi
 As you all are aware,this month I could not post dates till yesterday ie 11th,
I did not put the first date ie 12th. As a proof(for those you are skeptical,pl note that
12th is the New Moon day.(one of the main trigger)
 As a second proof pl note the dates for this months include
27th ie Full Moon day.
In fact 27th is stronger than 12th
pl not Nz quake to day
Amit

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Earthquake prediction for October 2015- an appology

Hi
 I am extremely sorry for not finding time to calculate and up load the probable dates for October 2015. Nevertheless, I will be doing the same in couple of days
Thanks
Amit Dave

Thursday, September 24, 2015

How Earthquake can trigger another quake thousands of Km away .

Hi
 This is an interesting article on a major quake inducing another quakes far away and on different plate boundaries also.
  The findings say that a week sound wave or week acoustic frequency can trigger the quake. It may reduce the friction between plate boundaries and hence can induce quake
   I am surprised,if week sound wave can trigger the quake, how and why tidal pull beyond a threshold limit can not trigger quakes?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730401-900-how-earthquakes-can-trigger-copycat-quakes-1000-kilometres-away/

Any Comments?

Amit

Saturday, September 05, 2015

Esrthquake prediction for Sept 2015

Hi
 Here are probable dates for major quakes in Sept 25
1) 10th.........6.4
2) 13th.........6.5
3) 27th........6.8
window period +or - 1 day
amit

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

earthquake Prediction for August 2015

hi
 Here are the probable dates for major quakes in August 2015
please note that in the month of August we have some of the strong indicators , which may give major quakes ( even 7+), and /or volcano eruptions , and /or cloud brusts

a)  Venus have already changed the direction on 24th July, and now accelerating
b) Venus will be closest in the month of August, ie 0.289 AU on August 17
c) Saturn will be changing direction from retogate  to direct on 1st August

One more point I would like to make this month is.. I will be giving Exact dates and the date hit predictions will be observed. For the time being ,the window period of + or - one day have been removed ie only the date mentioned here will be counted

1)  July 31st........6.4
2) 1st August (12.00 Noon UTC) to 2nd August 12.00 Noon UTC ........6.9 ( strongest of the month, may even go up to 7.2)
3)10th ................6.3
4) 14th ...............6.6
5)22nd................6.4
6)25th.................6.5
7)29th   ..............6.7 ( one more major quake ,may reach up to 7.0)

pl watch the dates
 AMIT

Friday, June 26, 2015

Earthquake prediction for the month of July 2015

Hi
 I am a back in action after one month gap. Now everything is settled and I can find some time to do some calculation and publish probable dates for major quakes(6+) for July 2015

1)1st/2nd.........6.6

2)5th/ 6th.........6.5

3)15th /16th.....6.7

4)18/19th........6.4

5) 28th ........6.3

window period + or - one day and magnitude window + or - 0.3

note  1st /2nd means  date is 12 noon from st to 12 noon of 2nd July
 for academic purpose ,you can also take window period for the same day ie 24 Hrs only

Amit

Friday, May 29, 2015

Earthquake prediction for the month of June 2015..( sorry unable to post for this month)

Hi
  I have recently shifted my residence and everything in the house is a mess. No proper broadband net connectivity for few more days. and I  have to post from my cell phone.
  I could not do much work for this month and hence , I am unable to post the probable dates for the month of June 2015.
Amit

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

How to predict major Earthquakes ?....an invitation to software engineers to prepare suitable software

hi
 Here I shall give my theory in nutshell and the indicators which leads to major quakes.(6+)
(A) Theory
    very briefly it states that,like high tides and low tides in the oceans, there occurs similar and corresponding high tides and low tides in the semi solid/molten lava below the earth crust.
Whenever the pull exceeds certain limits and the resultant pull acts on the weaker crust or fault line,an earthquake occurs. The more the pull or weaker the crust (fault line) ,the bigger the quake
     Extension to this theory also states that, if the crust is completely broken ,or if the pull is acted upon volcano mouth,it may erupt. Further,if on a given date if eruption occurs,the magnitude of quakes will be less ,because the internal pressure is released by eruption
  In this theory Moon is the main trigger. When other indicators (mentioned below) are present and Moon Joins ,opposes or squares the indicators the quake may occur

(B) Prediction
  a) Determining month/s of major quakes
 b) Fixing the date and time of quake
C) predicting location of quake

a)  determining the month
  following indicators are required for selecting the month  in descending order
1) Jupiter closer...4.4  AU (Astronomical Unit which is equal to average distance between Earth and Sun)
2)Jupiter at Maximum declination....+ or - 22 or 23
3)Venus closer....0.4 AU
4)Venus at maximum declination...+ or -23 to 27
5)Sun closer......0.98 AU
6) Sun at maximum declination.....+ or -22 or 23
7)Mars closer......0.7 AU
8)Mars at maximum declination...+ or - 22 and above
9)Saturn closer ..........8.5  AU
10 Jupiter standstill...(changing direction)...
11)Venus stand still..(changing direction)
12)Mars stand still ..(changing direction

 more the indicators are present in a given month ,more potent the month is. from sr number 1 to 9 any two indicator can give 6+ quake. .If exceeds ,5 it may give 7.5+ quake( depending upon the crust over which it is acting

b) determining the date and time..( in descending order ie first one is most potent)

 the theory states that, Moon is the main trigger in almost all major  quakes. once the month is decided, find the Moon in that month for following
1) Moon at perigee...ie closest...ie 57 ER (Earth radius)
2)Moon at maximum declination.....+ or - 20 to 27 ( in that particular month)
3) Full Moon or New Moon ( also eclipse if any)
4)find the major indicator from a) above ie jupiter, Sun,Venus or Mars ,depending upon their strength ,..and then find the date and time of Moon JOing, opposing or squaring that potant indicator
5) Moon at equator and at node 

c) Location
   location depends either on Moon position or the the most potent indicator from a) above
the time(+ or - 2Hrs...because moon takes 2Hrs to move one degree) can be fixed from B ) above. Further at that time find the Moon position on Earth ( where it is overhead at that time) The Lattitude and Longitude ,where Moon is overhead at given time as well as 180 degree apart (other side of globe for tidal pull acts at both ends) ,is prone to quake
    OR
 The position of most potent indicator on earth (Lat long) ,as well as 180 apart are the prone locations
 Note
location accuracy also depend on the earth crust ,wher pull is acted upon at given date and time. If the crust is solid and no fault line comes under pull at that hour ,it can wait for few Hrs to fault line come under pull Or may pre pone the time as per weakness of crudt

cycle quake theory
 it simply says that, the chances of major aftershock is high where major quake (7+)  have occured after
 12 hrs
24 Hrs
7/8th day
15/16th  day
pl note Nepal had major quakes after 24 hrs as well as 15/16th day
Amit

Major quake of 7.4 on 12th May 2015, as predicted by -cycle quake -theory

Roger
 please note yet another striking proof of my -cycle quake- theory. A huge 7.4 quake at Nepal today ie 12th May 2015. The date was exactly mentioned by me. It was also mentioned that ,Nepal authorities to remain alert after 7/8th 15/16th day of the major quake.
 The exact date was mentioned on my blog. unfortunately no body wants believe , any theory other than defunct plate tectonics

Wake up ....USGS.....Wake up

Amit

Thursday, May 07, 2015

Earthquake prediction for rest of the May 2015

hi
 I am sorry. Due to busy work schedule , i could not calculate and post the probable dates for rest of the May 2015. It is unfair to say anything for today quake of 7.1 at PNG. Though ,it was very much on my diary (6.5). As we have Venus closer and at maximum declination on 6th. Besides on 7th we have Moon at Maximum Declination south
  If you doubt,pl observe the Moon Maximum Declination north on 20th

1)12th May................6.6

2)19/20th ................6.7

3)24th ..................6.4

Time window + or - one day.
Amit

Sunday, May 03, 2015

Roger you re evaluations of my theory, (which does not match with your first one)


 Roger
 Sorry, I am posting your e mail on this blog (without your permission)
 This is exactly what I meant by QA-QC and UAT, for the program you have developed so far
 for testing my predictions. Now ,look, the basic things ie number of aftershocks and its 
distribution do not match,with respect to your first findings Now the question is , how far one should believe,the programs and results you have announced so far,stating my method is wrong, and that I should quit?


Amit

-----    ------   -----   -----  ----  -------   ------    -----   -----   -----  -----  --
Hi Amit;
I found the problem(s); numerous programming errors.
I have the habit of assuming that when the answer looks correct, it is correct.
WRONG!
I found spelling errors and logic errors by actually printing out the main quakes and aftershocks.
These are included in the printout so you can check them yourself if you wish.
Now the results are more consistant with the exponential decrease in aftershocks over time.
The curve (if plotted) would be much smoother and your special times are not any higher than expected.
I apologise for the mistakes.
Roger




There were 215 main quakes (7.5+) and  210 aftershocks
in the 10x10 degree square centered on each main quake

23 13  4  7  3  5  7  4  2  5  4  4  3  2  2  5  3  2  1  3  1  1  2  4 
 4  2  0  3  2  2  0  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
 0  2  0  0  1  1  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  2  0  1 
 1  1  1  1  1  0  1  0  2  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  1  2 
 2  2  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
 0  0  2  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  2  0  1  1  0  0  0  0  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  1 
 1  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  1  0  0  2  0  1  2  0  0 
 0  0  2  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  1 
 1  0  1  1  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  0  0  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  1 
 1  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  2  0  0  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
 0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1 
 1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Roger your evaluation of aftershocks ( as per my cycle quake theory)

There were 215 main quakes (7.5+) and  413 aftershocks
in the 10x10 degree square centered on each main quake

 9  8  2  3  0  2  1  2  1  3  4  2  2  0  0  1  3  2  1  1  1  1  2  3 
 3  1  0  2  3  2  1  1  0  2  1  0  1  1  0  1  0  1  1  1  0  1  1  0 
 0  1  0  0  3  1  2  0  1  1  1  3  1  0  0  1  1  0  2  0  0  2  0  0 
 0  1  0  2  0  0  0  1  1  3  4  0  1  1  1  0  3  2  1  2  0  0  0  2 
 2  0  0  0  0  1  1  2  0  2  0  0  2  0  2  1  0  1  1  0  1  0  2  1 
 1  2  2  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  2  2  2  1  2  0  3  1  0  1  3  1  0  1 
 1  3  1  1  1  1  0  0  2  0  3  2  0  1  0  0  1  2  0  1  0  1  2  5 
 5  3  0  3  0  1  0  1  3  1  1  0  0  0  0  2  3  0  1  2  1  3  1  1 
 1  1  1  4  2  4  2  0  1  1  0  1  1  3  0  0  0  2  2  2  1  3  4  2 
 2  0  1  1  0  1  0  0  2  1  0  3  1  0  0  0  1  2  1  3  1  0  1  1 
 1  1  1  1  2  2  0  0  2  1  2  1  2  1  1  0  0  1  1  1  0  2  0  1 
 1  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  1  0  1  1  0  0  1  0  1  2  2  1  1  0  1  2 
 2  1  0  1  0  3  1  2  2  2  1  2  0  1  1  0  1  1  2  0  3  1  0  0 
 0  0  0  1  2  2  0  1  3  0  0  1  2  3  2  1  0  2  2  2  3  1  0  2 
 2  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  2  1  2  0  1  1  3  0  0  1  1  1  1  1  0  1 
 1  0  1  0  0  2  0  0  0  1  1  2  0  1  1  1  0  1  2  3  0  0  0  1 

 
For viewers ,let me explain
 The evaluation of my -cycle quake theory- for aftershocks ,done by Roger Hunter is posted above

A) My theory says that, after a major quake of 7.5+ , at any location ,the chances of two (first and second highest) aftershocks are highest
1) after 12 Hrs
2)after 24 Hrs
3) on 7th or 8th day
4) on 14/15th and some times even on 16th day

B) Above table shows output of evaluation done by my friend Roger Hunter
   Rows (horizontal lines relates to days-first raw for first day and 16th raw for 16th day
   columns(vertical lines) pertains to hours of that particular day
numbers mentioned shows the numbers of quakes highest ( first or second) on that Hour of that day
  
now look

 Leaving first hour of quake we have
on 11th hour.....4 quakes
   12th Hrs......2
   13th Hrs......2
      24th Hrs...........3 quakes
     25th Hrs .........3 quakes


Also watch 7th day ,24th Hrs and 8th day first hr score ,which is 5 aftershocks in an Hr

Roger,what more proof you need.

 watch 11/12th ,24th and 25th hour scores ,much higher than any one /two hrs scores

on first day we have......54 quakes
   second day we have.....28 quakes


 on 7th day we have.......28 quakes
    and 8th day we have....32 quakes

on 15 h day we have ......20  quakes
   16th day we have...... 18 quakes

watch the quakes

except on first day ,the 7th and 8th day scores much more

Amit

Monday, April 27, 2015

Earthquake Prediction for May 2015

hi
 I have yet not calculated the details of probable dates for May 2015. However, as I have earlier said, and as per my cycle quake theory, I expect a major quake ( greater than 6.7) on 4th May at 3.00 UTC.
  As mentioned earlier, I can not post the probable location on this blog, I will be keeping the location ready with me. This will be 7/8th day of major quake at Nepal
  If Roger agrees. I am ready to share the probable location with him.
 I am aware that, giving this statement ,is not ethical and as per laws, I would still suggest,authorities to remain alert on the date (4th May) and time 3.00 UTC(+ or - 6 Hrs), for Nepal
Amit

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Earthquake at Nepal ,7.9, on 25th April 2015

Hi
  The Nepal earthquake was a major one (7.9) and need some more discussions
please see my previous post ( prediction for April 2015), and note accuracy of prediction (in terms of date)
 Now , I will explain the quake prediction
This month Jupiter has changed direction from retro gate to direct on 9th .Moreover Jupiter is closer to Earth ,hence the chances of major quakes will be high ,whenever Jupiter aspects Moon or Sun.
 The place correspond to Sun position
  In fact, as per my theory, the Jupiter and Moon will Join on 26th at 16.00 UTC
  So let us hope, there should not be any major quake at the said time

also pl see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com and see calender

Amit

Thursday, April 02, 2015

Earthquake Prediction for the month of April 2015

hi
April 2015 will witness lunar eclipse on 4th . It will be one of the shortest eclipse . The will be red Moon. During eclipse ( especially when on sun rise and sun set,because Earth"s atmosphere filter blue light and looks reddish

Now the quake prediction
Though, eclipses are potent for quakes ( and cyclones) ,on 4th ,the Moon is far away ie 63 ER(  Earth Radius)

1) 4th April....................6.3

2)9th April...................6.4

3)13th April.................6.7

4)17th April.................6.6

5)26th April.................6.5

As Jupiter is changing the direction and is fairly closer (4.8 AU-Astronomical Units-ie 1 AU is average distance between Sun and Earth), more potent quakes and floods/cyclones are also expected

Amit

Monday, March 02, 2015

Earthquake prediction for March 2015

hi

Here are the dates (exact dates) ,for probable 6+ earthquakes for March 2015

1)14 th March ....at....01.40 UTC..........6.5

2) 19th March........at 19.30 UTC......6.4

3)26th March .....at 14.30  UTC........6.3

The Time given are for academic interests . One may consider + or - one day window period as usal

Amit

Friday, February 06, 2015

Roger- Your results

Roger
 I think , the way you have put forward is not correct
 If you say, my results are 50% ie 2 hits out of 4 in a month, it is mandatory for you to get 3 hits out of 4 in the months. Therefore the number of  persons getting three or more hit in months should be taken
 Your results are

A) September
  nil hit.......0
1 hit...6
2hit.....12
3 hit ....10
4 hits ...2
B) October...
nil....6
1.....17
2.....7
3.....nil
4....nil

C) November
nil..0
1...0
2...1
3 hit...12
4 hit...17

D) December

nil hit...2
1....14
2....8
3hit..6
4....nil

E) January 2015

nil hit...3
1....20.
2hit...7
3hit...nil
4 hit...nil
 Thus ,you have 3 or 4 hits  total 47
This is out of 30 persons for five months ie 150

Now 47/150  =31.3 %
 For ,you proving better than me ,you should only take in account three or four hits by a person ( total 30 fictitious persons)

Amit


Monday, February 02, 2015

Earthquake prediction for the month of February 2015

hi
 I am sorry for not posting probable dates of February 2015 in time
As ,Roger has pointed out correctly, I have missed one 6.3 quake to day .
Nevertheless, if one matches it with my prediction guidelines ,it can be validated
1) we are approaching Full Moon on  midnight 3rd and 4th Feb
2) Mercury is changing direction and closer as well as Moon opposes Mercury on 3rd
3) Jupiter is closer and Moon joins Jupiter on 4th

I would have given date 3rd Feb 

Anyway, now another probable date is 18th February ............6.5

+ or - one day window period and + or - 0.3 magnitude

Amit