Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Fiji island earthquake ,6.3 on 28th December, as predicted

hi
please see my prediction dated 25th Dcember 2010, where ,an earthquakes of 6.3 to 6.6 was predicted . Actual quake is 6.3 south of fiji Island ,to day, ie 28th december 2010( A date hit)
Also please see ,my web page where this was predicted (under -calender)
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
regards
Amit

Monday, December 27, 2010

vanuatu,japan region and chile major earthquakes predictions

hi
If we consider major earthquakes,7+,for prediction accuracy for the year 2010,it would be like this
1) There are 45 dates predicted for 6+ quakes.(some of them stated as 7+ also)
2)There were 22 quakes of 7+ in year 2010 (till 26th December 2010)
3)7+ quakes occured in window period of prediction are 12.
4) odds of getting 7+ quake in window period of + or - one day ( ie 3 day window ) is 0.18
Now ,if we consider 8+ quakes,there is only one 8+ quakes on 27th February (chile).The date predicted was 28th february 2010. so ,it is in window period.
what is odd of getting 8+ quake in 3 day window?
regards
Amit

open Invitation to one and all for predicting radom earthquakes (6+) dates

Remi/Anonymous
1) You said ,my %hit is 60% and % miss is 13%.It comes to total 73%.What about remaining 23%?
2) Counting clusters of quakes (ie total 165 per for 2010),for averaging, is unfair
3) I have a very simple logic
If my predictions are not good than random dates,any body,you, can do the same thing.If we both give dates till ,say, next six months,than the chances of success or failure are equal for both of us.
so, by this blog I invite ,one and all ,who wish to test the random dates, should post their dates on this blog by January 15th 2011.
The rules are
1) quakes predicted should be 6+
2) time window period is + or - one day ,ie 3 day window
3)If time is given ,it should be in UTC
4) Magnitude window is + or -0.3
5) If time is given, the time window period will be + or -36 Hrs (ie 3 day window)
One,which you claim statisticaly,need to be proved practicaly.
so if 10 persons give radom dates at least 8 should have 96% hits,as you claim
regards
Amit

Saturday, December 25, 2010

vanuatu earthquake of 7.6 on 25th December 2010

hi
Time and again it is proved that, Moon at perigee,fastest and with any other combination may induce major quake. This time Mars is also fastest.
Though,in fact, I did not expect this nuch quake. Actaly my preidction next was between 27th and 28 th Dcember 2010 (around 6.3 to 6.6)
I failed to understand ,why and how ,plate tectonic theory says , major earthquakes are not due to tidal pull.
In fact,the Moon quakes are believed to be induced by Earths tidal pull,but not vice versa.
More interesting thing is Moons tidal pull on Earth is far more than Earths tidal pull on Moon.

please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Amit

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Accuracy of earthquake predction for the year 2010

hi
Here is the results of my earthquake prediction


During year 2010 ,ie 1st January to 22nd December the results are as follows
1)6+ quakes occurred--165
2) number of date predicted-45
3) Window period + or - 1 day ,ie 3 day window
4)% of time of the year under window period--37%
5)37 % of total quakes is --61
6) Actual 6+ quakes in window period is ----77
7) Number of hits --37
8)Number of misses----8
9)% of hits---82%
If we consider only one quake (6+) per day from NEIC records, total dates on which 6+ (at least one ) occured is ---118 only insted of 165 with muliple quakes per day.

please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Amit

Thus ,it is well above average quakes
Amit

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Iran,Japan region and Philipines Earthquakes on predicted date ,21st December 2010

hi
please note three major quakes on the predicted date of 21st December 2010
Iran---6.5
Japan region--7.4
Indonesia---6.2
Are these by chance? or fluke?Let us be open about it.Can plate tectonic explain such clusters of major quake,on given date and on different plate boundries?
In fact averaging out of major quakes (6+) ie 140 odd in a year is misleading. Earthquakes occurs in clusters. If I give 40 odd dates in a year for 6+ quakes and with window period of + or - 24 hrs ,my average will be too high
please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Amit

Iran earthquake (6.5) as predicted--7 dead

hi
Pleasee note yet another date hit prediction. Predition posted well in advance
Predicted date--21 st December 2010--6.5
please see my web page for theory ,FAQs , links and forum
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

regards
Amit

Friday, December 17, 2010

Do Eclipse give more earthquakes?

Hi
We are approaching lunar eclipse on comming full Moon. The question frequently asked is whether eclipses induce more quakes?
Answer is- Not necessarily.
In fact,provided other parameters are present ( like major planets chanaging direction , Moon at perigee,close aspects etc),eclipses give more magnitude quakes.
This is because on eclipses Sun ,(Earth) and Moon are not only opposing or joining ,but they are in the same plane,as the shadow of one covers the other
regards
Amit

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

South sanwhich earthquake and Mindanao -Philipines - Earthquakes on 8th Dec 2010


hi

please see my prediction of 6th /7th December 2010 for 6.7 quake.As per cycle quake theory also 8th day from last quake (ie 30th November 2010 is prone for quake)


now note following quakes on 8th December 2010


1) 6.5 at south sandwich island

2)6.1 at Philippines


you can also verify the same from link of earthquakes (real time -USGS) provided on this blog page

Amit

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

Predicting aftershocks -cycle quake theory

please note yet another proof of -cycle quake theory-
My cycle quake theory states-
If there is a prone date, which is fixed as per my theory, the dates/days 15 days and 7 and half days before and after (predicted date)are also prone for quakes.
Note quakes in November 2010 are
3rd,10th,16/17 th ,23rd and 30th November. All quakes were more than 6.0 (except on 16/17 th -5.9)
This happens due to various position of Moon ( a main trigger in earthquakes)
Let one date is fixed as main quake date ( as per theory). Now ,as Moon moves 90 degrees every 7 days (approx),before and after evrey 7 and half days, it occupies yet another similar ,but less potent location.
Thus cycle quakes occur
In fact, it is easiest way to predict a major after shock ,at a place ,where a major quake (7+) have already occurred.
I would go to the extent of saying, people should be warned ,on 7/8th day and 14/15th day for aftershock after a major quake of 7+
Amit

Monday, November 29, 2010

Earthquake (6.6) at Japan and Eruption at Mt Bromo ,Indonesia

Hi
please note my prediction date 29/30th November ,2010 and actual earthquake of 6.6,at Bonin Island,Japan. Also please note eruption in Mt Bromo , East Indonesia.
Time and again ,I have predicted date hits. The theory of Volcanic eruption has also been proved several times.
we need to look at other theories(other than plate tectonics ), for better earthquake prediction .
What accuracy (more than date hit) do we need?
I admit,that, right now I can not pin point places, but if time and efforts are made, I am sure ,it can be done
Amit

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Earthquake at Papua New Guinea ,6.0,on 23rd November 2010

hi
Please note an earthquake of 6.0 at Papua New Guinea ,today,ie 23rd November 2010, as predicted.Though the magnitude is not as expected,the fingers are crossed till Midnight (UTC) ,23rd November 2010

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Taiwan earthquake of 6.1 on 21st November 2010

hi
please note Taiwan earthquake of 6.1 on Sunday ,21st November 2010, as predicted .. Yes , This is not,the magnitude ,predicted. But I expect yet more in next day (22/23- place not known )


Today's (21st November 2010 of Taiwan was 5.7 as per USGS ,but Taiwan seismology department put it as 6.1. also the depth stated by both are not matching I wonder ,how come ,with so much advancement in science ,such differences arise.
I also wonder ,how the point accuracy,is demanded from all those who predict


please see report below
--- ---- ---- ----
A 6.1 magnitude undersea earthquake struck off eastern Taiwan on Sunday, the island's Seismology Centre said, but there were no immediate reports of damage or casualties. The quake hit at 1231 GMT about 22 kilometres (14 miles) southeast of the eastern city of Hualien city and had a depth of 41
kilometres, the Centre said. No tsunami warning was issued.

The US Geological Survey put the quake's magnitude at 5.7. It said the epicentre was 50 kilometres (31 miles) deep.

--- ---- ----- -----
http://www.hindustantimes.com/6-1-magnitude-quake-strikes-off-Taiwan-Seismology-Centre/Article1-629249.aspx

regards
Amit

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Yemen Earthquakes

hi
Recent Yemen earthquakes are unusual. Last two days have witnessed series of morderate quakes,and are still counting.
In such,unusual swarm, we need to be cautious till November 2010 end.
16th,22nd ,29/30th November 2010(+ or - 24 Hrs)
Amit

Monday, October 25, 2010

Indonesia eartquake(7.5) on 25th October 2010, a cyclone and Volcanic eruption

Hi
Please note a big quake, a huge cyclone and an eruption all at one time.Time and again it is noticed that on a given date of major quake (+ or - 2 days) , a cyclone as well as volcanic eruption occurs. No body have noticed or bothered to analyze the events , as to why they occur simultenously.This was also noticed when the infamous iceland volcano shut the airports.That was also on the same day of big quake
This idea(theory) was previously posted on my blog. It seems no one would believe this theory.
The theory-extended theory of earthquake prediction-is termed as general theory of tidal forces.
Theory in a nutshell is like this
1) The tidal forces and accelaration /retardation (momentum change) is applicable at all levels ie
molten lava,earth crust, oceans ,clouds and atmosphere
2)In case of molten magma, it can can induce a quake
3) If the force is much higher,it can open up a volcano
4)The same tidal force induces high tide and low tides in oceans
5)In atmosphere, it can create a cyclone at low presure zone
The tidal forces create high density atmosphere at hightide zone and create low presure at low tide zone. The more the tidal force(ie when high magnitude quake is predicted ), the more the low tide also.
This low tide creates ,partial vacuum,and when the place is out of low tide force, air rushes to occupy the patial vacuum. Now, when such air ,flows over ocean with specific temperature (26 to 28 ,if I am correct) it gethers latent heat of ocean waters and produce a cyclone.
6) In atmosphere it can create a huge cloud brust,at high pressure zone
So the dates given for major quakes are also prone to Natural disasters
Amit Dave

Thursday, October 21, 2010

open Invitation..........Earthquake dates..contd

Hi
It is noticed that, as there are s many comments, locating and reading comments has become little difficult.
Hence ,this thread is opened for further discussions

As Venus is closer and a full Moon day on 23rd Oct as well as earth is nearer to Sun ,there are fair chances of major quake on 23rd Oct . Besides ,there was 6+ quake on 16th hence as per -Quake cycle theory- (quakes occurring after seven and half days also, there are chances of quake 6.5 (approx ) occurring on 23rd (+ or - 24 Hrs)

               Right
Distance
From 47°N 7°E:
Ascension - Declination - (AU) -- Altitude Azimuth

Sun         13h 52m 10s   -11° 31.3'     0.995     2.768   69.816 Up
Mercury 14h 9m 24s -12° 53.8' 1.433 4.435 65.706 Up
Venus 14h 15m 52s -20° 49.4' 0.277 -0.723 59.487 Set
Moon 2h 12m 57s +17° 53.6' 62.1 ER -1.118 -118.133 Set
Mars 15h 37m 8s -19° 54.0' 2.313 10.932 44.321 Up
Jupiter 23h 42m 45s -3° 33.3' 4.111 7.814 -76.176 Up
Saturn 12h 42m 2s -2° 8.8' 10.495 -1.996 88.993 Set
Uranus 23h 51m 45s -1° 44.6' 19.247 7.667 -79.085 Up
Neptune 21h 53m 34s -13° 19.2' 29.569 16.376 -48.147 Up
Pluto 18h 12m 47s -18° 42.4' 32.358 23.905 8.225 Up

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Open invitation to give probable major earthquake dates

It is pointed out by one gentleman that, my prediction needs to be tested with random dates given by one and all.
I ,here by, request to all persons who wish to check my dates vis a vis random dates given by them, to post dates on this blog by 21st September 2010, 2355Hrs (UTC)
Following things to be noted
1)Each one can post three dates in a month.
2)Dates should be till December 2010 end
3)Earthquakes predicted should be major (6+)
4)Only date hits will be counted,day being as per UTC- OR- As per Roger advise us to do.
5)If time is given ,it should be in UTC
6)Evaluations will be done after December 2010 by Roger
regards
Amit Dave

Thursday, September 02, 2010

SEPTEMBER 2010 QUAKES

Major quakes for year 2010 were already posted on my blog earlier. However a little modification is given below
1)3rd September 08.10 UTC----6.2
2)8h September--10.30 UTC--7.3
In fact it is expected that ,there could be two major quakes ,one on 8th and another on 9th September 2010 (11.10 UTC--7+)
Amit

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Mariana quake of 7.2 on 13Th August 2010--A date hit

hi
For all those who are skeptical of date hits prediction, here is one more proof .
Mariana quake of 7.2 on 13th August 2010 at 2119 UTC
as against predicted date 13th August 2010 ,6.9 magnitude
How long we will keep on saying ,this is a fluke or anybody can do this (without actually doing the same?!!)

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Equador quake of 6.9 on 12th August 2010-Accuracy of prediction again

hi
This is one more proof of accuracyof predition of Major quakes.
Please see my prediction of quake -13th August 2010-0130 UTC-6.9
as against
Todays quake(12th August 2010) at equador-1154 UTC-6.9
Any comment
regards
Amit

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

One more 7+ hour hit-Any comment Roger?

please note today's quake of 7.5 at Vanuattu at 0523 UTC as against predicted 7.0 at 0330 UTC
any comment Roger?
Amit

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Theories taking U turn

hi
Recently I have come accros two new theorirs proposed by reknowned researchers. The theories are completely opposite to exesting theories. It is interesting to note how the things are taking U turn in course of research
1)Wun-Yi Shu of the National Tsing Hua University,Tiwan,suggest that there is no begining or end of the Universe.In a paper published on site ArXiv.org, Shu describe the mass and length are interchangable.
2)A polish cosmologist suggested that, our Universe could exist inside a blck hole!!
Any comments
Amit

Sunday, August 01, 2010

August 2010 predictions

hi
As per my usual practice, in first week of every month ,the probaale dates of quakes are published.Here, only for first half of August the dates are posted. rest of the dates will be decided/confirmed after observing the first half cycle quakes
1) 7th August 2010-----0410UTC----6.8
2) 10th August 2010----0330 UTC----7.0
3)13th August 2010-----0130 UTC---6.9
please watch the dates
regards
Amit Dave

Friday, July 23, 2010

Major quakes on 23rd July 2010 (7+,3quakes) as predicted.Roger to note

Roger
This post s specially for you.There are 3 major quakes ,all 7+ on 23rd July 2010,as predicted.I want your frank opinion,about hits and accuracy of theory.
Roger, why we can not find out the solution,instead of holing on to the theory (plate tectonics ) which is not working at all
I want ,everybody to give their opinion on my theory and accuracy
regards
Amit

Friday, July 02, 2010

Jupiter changinging the direction and comming closer will give major earthquakes -10Th July to 15 th August 2010

hi
On 23rd July 2010 Jupiter is changing the direction .Moreover,Jupiter is comming closer and closer day by day( less than 4.5 AU) during July as well as August 2010.Also Venus and Mercury are closer. Thus ,there are fair chnces of major quakes (7+) occuring during July later half and August first half.
Probable dates for July are mentioned here first
1. 4th July----6.8
2. 11th ,26th nad 31 st July -----all 7+
It would be interesting to note the actual quakes (6+) occuring 15 days before and 15 days after Jupiter changing the direction vis a vis standred averages
regards
Amit

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Roger to prove practically that,any body can give equal numbers of date hits

Roger
Now ,at least to prove your point that my predictions are below average,you should give some dates
with equal numbers of date hits.
If you can not do that,it means there is something wrong with your average calculation methods( basically due to clusters)
One which is theoretically correct should prove practically.
Every time you ask me to prove the date hits. Now ,after series of date hits, onus is on you to prove practically, that ,you or any body can give equal number of date hits
Amit

Saturday, June 12, 2010

One more 7+ date hit

please see my prediction of 7+ earthquake on 12th June 2010 and actual quakes
1)7.5 Nicobar-12 June 2010 -1926 Hrs UTC
2)6.1 East coast of Japan -13th June 2010 -0302 Hrs UTC
I earnestly requaest all to work on the topic and pin point even places. In principle I hope to do so
in future
Amit

Thursday, June 10, 2010

2009 prediction -Results

Tony
Here is the complete list of my 2009 prediction ,with 3 day window and quakes considered only those which are 6+
Prediction date------date(-actual quakes)
1)2.1.09-----------3.1(7.7),and (6.6)
2)4.1.09----------3.1.09(7.4)
3)11.1.09--------miss
4)12.1.09---------13.1(6.0)
5)15.1.09---------15.1(6.7 and 7.4)
6)18.1.09---------18.1(6.4)19.1(6.6 and 6.0)
7)25/26.1.09--------miss
8)9.2.09--------9.2 (6.0)
9)4.3.09---------miss
10)6.3.09--------6.3.09(6.5)
11)15.4.09------15.4(6.3),16.4(6.7)
12)22.4.09------21.4(6.2)
13)9.5.09-------10.5(6.1)
14)17.5.09------16.5(6.5)
15)18.5.09------miss
16)24.5.09-------24.5(6.0)
17)6.6.09--------5.6(6.4),6.6(6.0)
18)13.6.09------12.6(6.00,14.6(6.0)
1916.6.09-------16.6(6.1)
20)20.6.09-----miss
21)22.6.09-----13.6(6.7)
22)6.9.09------7.9(6.2 and 6.0)
23)3.10.09-----2.10(6.1 and 6.0),3.10(6.1),4.10(6.6)
24)4.10.09----4.10(6.6)
25)11.10.09-----10.10(6.6)11.10(6.0),12.10(6.2)
26)13.10.09---13.10(6.5,6.0,6.4),14.10(6.3 and 6.3)
27)18.10.09----19.10(6.0)
28)20.10.09----miss
29)24.12.09---23.12(6.0),24.12(6.3)
3026.12.09-----26.12(6.1)
Tony now I would like yo to evaluate the predictions
regards
Amit

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Major quakes for June 2010

hi
In June 2010 ,following date and time are prone to major quakees as well as other natural disasters like volcanic eruptions and /or cyclones
1)6th June 2010-----0530 Hrs (IST)-----6.9
2)12th June-------- 1630 Hrs (IST)----- 7.2
3)19th June------- 1130 Hrs (IST)------6.8
4)26 th June--------1700Hrs (IST)-----7.1
please watch
Regards
Amit

Monday, May 31, 2010

sample study-planets changing direction and quakes

hi
A sample study for the year 2006 was done by me ,to check concentartion of quakes near dtaes when planets changes the direction. For study purpose Mercury was not considere as it is a small planet and have less tidal pull
In year 2006 there are 5 dates when planets changes the direction ie
3rd Feb, 5th March, 5th April, 6th July,and 7th December.
The quakes 6 -6.9, 7.0-8.0 and 8+ were checked before and after 15 days of the date on which planet changes the direction
Results are
------ ---- ---Actual----- Average (expected during the period ie 5 months)
6-6.9 -- ---------66 -----------56
7.0-8.0 ----------6 ------------6
8+ ---------------1 -----------0.5(?)
A study was also done for Jupiter when changing direction as well as closer to Earth
7th April 2007 and 7th August 2007 Jupiter changes the direction as well as closer to earth (<5.0 AU)
For 15 days before and after these dates the quakes are as follows
-- For 7th April 07 -----For Date 7h August 07
---------Actual -----------Actual --------Average (for a Month)
6-6.9 -----31 ---------------20 -------------11
7-7.9 ------1-----------------2--------------1.25
8+---------1 ----------------1 -------------0.1 (?)
I would like you to comment as to weather this is above average or not?
regards
Amit

Friday, May 28, 2010

Again a proof in favour of tidal force theory

hi
please note Vanuattu quake of 7.4 on 27th May 2010,1714 Hrs UTC,as expected.This has again made it clear that the tidal force theory is not only correct but accurate also.
Quake was just Hrs before exact full Moon
If we,still doubt the theory, only because it is against the existing theory of plate tectonics,God only save us all. Time and again it can not be stated as chance
regards
Amit

Monday, May 24, 2010

--And a miss

hi
As I regularly inform every one about my hits,it is my moral duty to inform you all a miss.
22nd May 2010 at 2315 was predicted as hit of 7+.However,the quakes were seen less than 6.
On 24th at 1618Hrs GMT a quake of 6.3was noted at Brazil.
Looking at above ,I am quite apprehensive of the quake on 28th May 2010 (6.5+)
Fingers are crossed and I am only observing
regards
Amit

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Moon tidal foece on earth

hi
please see the link fortidal force calculation
http://www.themcdonalds.net/richard/astro/papers/602-tides-web.pdf
please note the amount of tidal forces mentioned below.
1)Moon feels from Earth-------(1.82)*(10)raised to 18 N
2)Earth feels from Moon-------(6.69)*(10)raised to 18 N
3)Earth feels from Sun---------(3.02)*(10)raised to 18 N
please note that the tidal force of Moon on Earth is more (3.5times) than ,the force of Earth on Moon.This is because Earth is bigger and hence bigger differential force.
Now,the question is -
If we (scientists) agrees that the Moonquakes are mainly due to tidal force of Earth,How and why we do not believe that the Moon can trigger tidal force induced earthquakes(which is 3.5 times more)?
If any one have specifice reason ,please let me know
regards
Amit

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Earthquakes due to Saturn changing Direction and Jupiter closing in

hi
Saturn is changing direction from retrograde to direct on 30th May 2010 and Jupiter slowly approaching closer and closer to Earth ,major quakes ,eruptions as well as natural disasters may occur.watch out following dates 16th and 23 rd May 2010
23rd May 2010is more potent date
23rd May 2010 ,04.45 Hrs IST major earthquake is expected (7+)
regards
Amit

Sunday, May 09, 2010

Accuracy of prediction- Sumatra quake-

hi
please note today's major quake of 7.4 at northern Sumatra against my predicted date of 10th May 2010 and 6.4+.
I would again request he USGS and learned scientist/geologist to look in to he matter at least once leaving the prejudice that,no theory.other than plate tectonic is correct. I would also like Roger to note this.

This may even increase the ash from Iceland volcano
regards
Amit
please.. please save some lives

Tuesday, May 04, 2010

KATLA ERUPTION

Pro. John Davidson,from Earth Science Durham University predicted that, the sister volcano of
Eyjafjallajokull namely Katla (which is ten times bigger)will explode with in a year. In the past history of 2000 years it has erupted with in a year of eruption of Eyjafjallajokull .This is also opined by vulcanologist Bill McGuire
If it is true, I would like to add that ,the most potent period is between 15 th August 15 th September 2010

INTRA PLATE QUAKES

There are several major earthquakes that occur not on the plate boundaries but inside the plate. Take for example major quake of Latur -Maharashtra -india on 30th September 1993. Western part of India ,especially Maharashtra are known to be safe place as it is not on plate boundary of Euresia plate. Nevertheless after the quake the area is now put under risk category.
The reason,given by plate tectonics is -Intra plate quake due to fault-
How the two sides of the fault move relative to each other ,when the parent plate is moving in one direction? Are these not after thoughts?
By the way, looking at the cycle quakes , there could be quake/s (6.4+) on 10th May 2010

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Earthquakes and natural Disasters-Actual vs Predicted

Hi
Here is one more proof of dates prone to natural disasters.
please see my predicctd date of quake 25th April 2010 , 2100 Hrs Indian Std Time and 6.6 magnitude.Now look at the listbelow
1) Quake ,6.5, 26th April 2.59 UTC, Taiwan.(see+or -12 Hrs accuracy)
2) Quake ,6.1, 24Th April 7.41UTC , Indonesia
3) Tornedo,160 mph, Mississippi
4)Tornedo at Albama
5)Tornedo at Louissiana
6)Tornedo at arkansas
7) Cyclone at Assam -India
Now, some one have to explain it to me ,how do I believe that ,there is no co relation between all these.If science do not see it,I would not hasitate in sying science is blind folded
If some one says,these are all by chance,how do I believe?
If my predictions are below average I propose following test
Let any three persons give 10 random dates till December 2010.If and only if ,two out of thre can give more hits (more than 80%) I will believe,these predictions were by chance.
regards
Amit

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

cycle quakes and eruption

hi
we have on 14th April 2010,china quake,Iceland volcanic eruption and west begal cyclone.As per general theory of tidal force, after 7.5 days we may witness some of the above. This is because,after each 7.5 days, Moon moves 90 degrees and acquires next potent position
Most likely hood of renewed volcanic eruption (this was posted eariler -yesterday -below the list of dates for the year 2010)

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Earthquakes ad plate tectonics,cause and effect

Another angle of looking at plate tectonic theory

The base of my theory is-some dates are more prone to major quakes than others ,why?
If plate tectonics can ignore some striking co-relation,there is no much hope for any headway by only working on stress strains and ground motions.
I think what we are doing is,interchanging effect as a cause. PLATES ARE THE EFFECTS OF QUAKES and not the cause.In the initial stage there were quakes first and than plates and later plate motions-
If we look with this angle,almost all flaws of plate tectonics can be resolved

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Request to USGS,China quake (14th April 2010) and predicted date-Think out of the box

Hi
please note China quake of 6.9 on 14Th April 2010 ,0520 am (IST) against my predicted date.
Time and again it was proved correct. It is high time we should think of theories other than Plate tectonics. I do not know ,why we are so reluctant to look at anything other than plate tectonics
please......please look for and work for tidal force theory also..atleast observe the dates carefully and save some human lives .This has also proved 7.5 day theory for quake,which Roger to note.
I ,here by,request all learned man in general and USGS in perticular to watch my dates till December 2010 posted on the blog (including modified well in advance) and than decide further course of action
Regards
Amit

Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Earthquake prediction depending on cycle quakes

As there are few quakes at Baja,Macaua and Indonesia now ,the quakes on 12th April 2010 1230 UTC and on 14th April 2010 (modified ) are more or less confirmed

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

earthquake prediction-whom do we call a hit?

Hi
pl note Andoman quake of 6.4 on 30th March 2010 (16.54 GMT) as predicted earlier Time and again the dates predicted have come true.Predted time is up to 12.00 Noon 30th March 2010( IST) and magnitude 7.0.where as actual quake is 10.30 Hrs late and of lesser magnitude (0.6) Where it is stated that,prediction of quake(major 6.0+) is not possible,I do not know whether this can be treated as a hit . I thing Roger would be able to comment
regards
Amit Dave

Monday, March 22, 2010

Question to plate tectonic-Force required to move a plate

Yesterday, I was trying to figure out the force required to move a tectonic plate from stanstill. Icould not find the solution
Following data is available
1. A major plate say Euresia
2. We have ,area,volume, approx density and haence weight and mass of the plate
3.We have coefficient of friction ,between solid to solid.
4.Assumung the plate free to move in any direction without any obstraction (which is not the case),how much force will it require to move from stanstill position by overcomming intial intertia?
5. How much force is generated by heat currents of solid mentle?
6.will it be sufficient to move the plate ,which is obstructed and opposed by another plate?
7. How much force is required to flod the earthcruct and form Himalya?
If anyone have calculated the force equilibrium pl let me know.

Amit

Saturday, March 13, 2010

There are two cycles of quakes ,as already mentioned in my blog
(1)When any planet changes the motion from direct to retro gate or vice a verse first cycle comprises of Moon Joining, Opposing or squaring that planet
(2) second cycle comprises of Moon joining ,squaring or Opposing the Sun in the window period of 15 days (both side) when (1) above exists

If there are more than two planets changing the direction in a short span of 3/5 days there will be even three separate cycles
In this case of more planets changing direction within short span,the quakes will be huge
Now , our case of 11.03.2010 pl note that Mars have changed the direction on 10.03.2010 and Moon directly opposing the the Mars.This date specifically selected for this reason well in advance (January 2010)
Now ,further on 15 .03.2010 we have New Moon, Moon opposing fastest moving Jupiter ,and Mars is picking up he acceleration, yhere will be yet more quakes.

I would suggest one exercise
Find the concentration of major quakes on both sides of such dates when Jupiter,Venus ,Saturn and Mars are changing the directions. The magnitudes will be in descending order from Jupiter to Mars.Mercury is having less mass and hence less pull can give quakes up to 6.2 or so
Also find the dates in past when both Jupiter and Saturn were changing the direction in a short span and major quakes in window period or say cycle dates in window period
There are on an average 6 such dates excluding Mercury when directions are changed.What actually happens when major planets changes the direction is ,it either breaks or accelerates the momentum of magma inside the crust and thus creates imbalance inside the crust.Moon,with highest pull acts as a triggers when such changes in momentum exists. Moon moves 1degree in 2 Hrs and hence accurcy expected (maximum) is +or - 2 Hrs.And this is why place can not be pin pointed. In 4 Hrs Earth moves both ways ,in Orbit and around axis giving a miss to the predicted place. Moreover, sometimes , if the crust is weak ,say a plate boundary than quake may occur earlier i.e.before full potential pull generates.
regards
Amit

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Major quakes at Chile to day(11thMarch 2010) -request to USGS to look in to the matter.

As predicted earlier on my blog ,there were three major quakes at Chile to day.There are 7.2,6.9 and 6.0 quakes at Chile .I would not term these as aftershocks because
1) As per my theory every shock is a separate shock
2) If,as per plate tectonics,these were aftershocks,how they increase in magnitude after so many days?
It is high time taht, USGS and other research institutes, encourage the research in the field other than plate tectonics

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Predicting major aftershocks ,at Chile

After a major quake of magnitude like that of Chile, the major aftershocks occur after Seven and Half day as well as 15 days.This is because,the Moon acquires next potent position of 90 degrees apart afetr each seven and half days.
Thus, first date and time to watch at Chile is 6th March 2010 at 1530 Hrs local time.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

generalized theory for naturaldisaster prediction

pl see my previous blogs of 12th February 2009 and 20th October 2009 regarding generalized theory. The dates maentioned here are prone for naural disasters like earthquakes , volcanic eruptions, cyclones and cloud burst.This is because tidal force act on molten lava gives quakes and volcanic eruptions.Tidal force acting on oceans gives high tides, that on clouds gives cloud burst and the same force acting on atmosphere will give cyclones.
Thus, all dates mentioned here should also be watched for other natural disasters.
pl note cyclone in Europe on 28th February 2010 which killed 55 persons.

some questions to plate tectonics

There are several major quakes from 27th February 2010 to 28th February. There are questions for plate tectonics here
1) Why there are major quakes on some particular date?
2) How these quakes,on different plates can be explained ,if they occur on the same date?
3) How the stresses on different plates are released on a single day?
yes,quakes do occur on plate boundaries and that ,there are plates and they are moving. But the fact is
1) Plate boundaries are weaker sections and hence they break earlier due to tidal force.
2) Plates are due to quake and quakes are not due to plates

How the first break in plate occurred?Due to heat currents of molten magma?
The earth crust would not have solidified at he place where splitting heat currents were already present.

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Chile and Japan quakes to day

please note major quakes ,first 7.0 at Japan and 8.8 at Chile to day as against my prediction of 28th February 2010. Tsunami warning is also issued. It is high time we look in to the theories other than plate tectonics. Accuracy/window of +or - 24 Hrs is good enough to justify my theory.
Yes ,I admit,right now I do not predict or pin point places. Accuracy of my place prediction is less than 40%,hence it is not advisable to disclose it, besides i is an offense under Indian Disaster Act to spread rumors..Nevertheless, once we understand the theory,I am sure places also can be predicted with fair amount of accuracy.
I am afraid, tomorrow there could be yet another.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Thumb rule for predicting major quakes (>7.0)

Here are some thumb rules whereby any one can predict the major earthquakes (>7.0) to fair amount of accuracy
1) find out the date/s when either Jupiter or Saturn is changing the direction from direct to retro gate or vice a versa.
2) 15 days before and 15 days after this date is the window period for major quakes.
3) find the date when moon either joins/opposes or squares this planet or Sun.
4)watch out for Full moon and new moon in this window period
5) If both Jupiter and Saturn are changing the direction with in a span of 4/5 days the quake/s would be even more than 8.0
6) magnitude can be fine tuned depending upon proximity of Moon, Jupiter and Saturn.
7) Earth closer to Sun, Moon on equator, aspects of planets can be used to fine tune the magnitude.

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

open debate on earthquake prediction theory vis a vis plate tectonics

hi
last year I had a good healthy debate on earthqauke prediction (tidal force theory verses plate tectonic with one of my learned friend. I would like every one to see it and comment ,if any. Pl see te links
http://suvratk.blogspot.com/search?q=earthquake+prediction
regards
Amit dave

Saturday, January 30, 2010

MOONQUAKES ,A MYSTERY DEPENS-EARTH MAGAZINE

DO moon quakes occurs due to tidal force?.A report by earth magazine

Moonquake mystery deepens
Between 1969 and 1972, five Apollo missions installed seismic stations at their landing sites on the nearside of the moon. Because the moon was thought to be seismically dead, the instruments were left almost as an afterthought to detect meteor strikes. But from the time the stations were switched on until they were decommissioned in 1977, they recorded hundreds of internally generated moonquakes, some as strong as magnitude 5.5 on the Richter scale.

Apollo 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16 astronauts left seismometers on the moon that recorded hundreds of moonquakes until the experiments were shut down in 1977.
NASA
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For 40 years, scientists have scoured the Apollo seismic data for an explanation of these moonquakes. Because the moon lacks active plate tectonics, moonquakes must be driven by different forces than most quakes on Earth. Extreme temperature changes may account for the less common shallow moonquakes, but a good explanation for deep moonquakes remains elusive. Now, a new study crosses one long-standing theory about what triggers deep moonquakes off the list. Instead, the study suggests, moonquakes might have more in common with earthquakes than previously thought.
“Very early on, scientists recognized a link between moonquakes and the tidal forces exerted on the moon by the gravitational pull of the Earth,” says Bruce Bills, a geophysicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and co-author of the new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. “Moonquakes reoccur again and again in the same locations at the same time of the month, which seems to link them to the monthly tidal cycles” he says, “but so far, nobody has been able to construct a physical model or clear pattern to explain the relationship.”
The relationship between tides and moonquakes had been explored before, Bills says, but “most of the moonquake studies were done back in the 1970s soon after the data were collected, and we’ve learned a lot about geophysics and modeling since then.” By comparing data about where and when the moonquakes occurred with the well-understood cycles of tidal forcing, Bills and colleagues thought they could flesh out a moonquake pattern. But, Bills says, “it didn’t work out that way at all. Clearly there’s something else involved here besides the tides.”
One problem with the tidal forcing hypothesis, he says, is that while tides exert the same pressures from month to month on the entire moon, moonquakes only occur in limited regions. “If the tides were the only force involved in generating moonquakes, we’d expect them to be more widespread,” Bills says.
“The deep moonquake problem is similar in some ways to the deep earthquake problem,” says Cliff Frohlich, a seismologist at the University of Texas in Austin who was not involved in the new study. Deep earthquakes occur at extreme temperatures and pressures where brittle fracture, the cause of most shallow earthquakes, is not possible. So other phenomena — like dehydration embrittlement, where water and other volatiles open cracks in otherwise plastic rock, and transformational faulting, where minerals change to weaker or denser phases under extreme pressure, causing collapse — are thought to play a role, he says.
Because water has yet to be discovered on the moon, Bills and colleagues suggest mineral phase changes may make certain areas of the moon weaker, resulting in moonquakes triggered by tidal pressure. “This is one of the first broader viewpoints I’ve seen,” says Yosio Nakamura, also of the University of Texas at Austin. “Other studies have failed to find a clear relationship between tides and moonquakes, but this is the first to suggest an alternate mechanism.”
For now, Bills and colleagues plan to continue to study the Apollo data, but they say more data, collected by more instruments over a wider area of the moon, are needed to test their transformational faulting hypothesis. Frohlich and Nakamura are also hoping NASA will return to the moon and install a few dozen seismic stations. “Right now, we know virtually nothing about the moon’s interior,” Frohlich says. “So we have to make a lot of assumptions about the moon’s internal composition, which means all our theories are pretty sketchy. Sometimes so much speculation is fun, but more often, as in the case with deep moonquakes, it’s just frustrating

Monday, January 25, 2010

Sequence of aftershocks

It is interesting to observe that,major aftershocks at place where major quake has occurred ,is observed after 7 and half days and after 15 days (approximately). we have first major aftershock on 20/21st January 2010 at Haiti. By that sequence yet another major aftershock may occur on 28/29 th January 2010.
Time and again I have noticed this pattern.This is because,Moon plays a major role in triggering the earthquakes. After each 7 and half days Moon acquires next position exactly 90 degrees apart . Thus ,till the potent combinations is faded aftershocks continues,(in diminishing scale)

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Aftersocks at Haiti

Hi
pl note a major after shock of 6.1 occurred on Wednesday ie 8 days after major quake of 7.2.
As check my theory given on this blog. Moon plying the major role in quakes, major aftershocks occur after 7 and half days,because Moon acquires next potent position 90 degrees apart of original major quake position
slowly the potency of combination reduces and after 15 days (180 degrees apart) it may fade away.
regards Amit dave

Friday, January 15, 2010

January 2010 earthquakes

pl note series of major earthquakes came in the first/second week of the January, including HAITI
quake
watch the dates through out the year 2010.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Major earthquakes predicted for the year 2010

sir
pl observe following dates for major quakes (>6.5).All times in Indian Std Time (GMT+5.30 Hrs)
( place can not be determined correctly)

1) 15.01.2010 1400 Hrs 6.7
2) 18.01.2010 1300 6.6
3) 30.01.2010 1330 6.5
4)15.02.2010. 0730 6.6
5) 28.02.2010 1900 6.8
6)11.03.2010 1100 6.5
7)15.03.2010 2300 6.9
8)29/30.03.2010 7.0 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
9)11.04.2010 1300 6.5
10) 25.04.2010 2100 6.6
11)20/21.5.2010 6.6 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
12)05.06.2010 0400 7.1
13) 6.06.2010 0530 7.4
14) 12/13.06.2010 7.1
15)26.06.2010 1230 7.1
16)04.072010 0400 7.0
17) 11.07.2010 2300 6.8
18) 16/17.07.2010 7.1 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
19) 23.07.2010 1900 6.9
20) 26.07.2010 0500 7.1
21) 31.07.2010 0900 6.5
22) 10.08.2010 1100 6.7
23)12/13.08.2010 7.3 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
24) 24.08.2010 1300 7.0
25) 37.08.2010 1000 7.4
26) 01.09.2010 0900 7.0
27) 3.09.2010 1130 7.3
28) 8/9.09.2010 7.6 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
29)15.09.2010 1200 6.6
30) 23.09.2010 0900 7.2
31) 30.09.2010 1500 6.9
32)6/7.10 2010 6.6 (12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
33) 9.10.2010 2300 6.6
34) 20.10.2010 0930 6.9
35) 23.10.2010 0600 6.7
36)2/3.11.2010 6.6 12 Noon to 12 noon
37)16.11.2010 0530 7.0
38)21.11.2010 1200 6.8
39) 23.11.2010 1800 6.7
40)29/30.11.2010 6.7 12 Noon to 12 Noon
41)6/7.12.2010. 6.6 12 Noon to 12 Noon
42)21.12.2010 0830 6.8
43)27/28.12.2010 6.7 12 Noon to 12 Noon
In all 13% dates are given for the year to watch.

Expected accuracy os more than 75%
regards
Amit Dave








Friday, January 08, 2010

Earthquakes for the year 2010

The probable dates for major eartquakes for the year 2010 will be posted soon ,caclulated using fo;;owing guidelines
1) After my 15 years ofresearch on the earthquake prediction I have found that
a) Major Earthquakes do occur on full Moon and New moon day.(rarely on neap tide dates).
b) All full moon and new moon dates are not prone to major quakes . Factors to be watched are
i) Moon nearset to earth
ii) earth nearest to sun
iii) Jupitor nearest to earth
iv) Major planets(Jupitor,Saturn and Venus) are changing the direction from direct to retrogate or vice a versa
v) Aspects of other planets with Moon and Earth
vi) Declination of Moon and Sun
vii) Eclipses
The dates can be fine tuned according to above perameters.
c) Time is decided by the hour Moon aspects/opposes or joins Sun or Jupitor.
D) Intensity is judged by the proximity or clear aspects.
2) You have given 12 days in amonth( 6 days for full moon and 6 days for new moon.) ie 40% of days.Accuracy expected is more than 50% for quakes more than 6.5.
3) I shall give( with in couple of days) 30 dates for the year 2010.It means 8.3% of dates . I expect accuracy more than 75%
4) can we not help people ( at quake prone places ) to remain alert on ,say 10% odd dates?
wait and watch
Amit Dave

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Major Quakes occured in first week of January 2010

please note my predictions regarding major earthquakes in first week of January 2010.
There were seris of major quakes (>6.5) occured in first week,including one major quake(7.2 ),with tsunami waves.
I have certain ponts to be raised to USGS
1) Is it not worthwhile to predict major quakes (>7.0) with this accuracy?
2) Why do we need prediction either 0% or 100%? can we not start with accuracy of more than 60%?
3) Are we not open to any theory other than plate tectonics?
4) If my prediction accuracy is a matter of chance, anybody has the same probability as of mine.
I hereby request anyone(in general and USGS in perticular) to give dates of probable major quakes (>6.8) . I hall than post dates of major quakes till 31st December 2010. We will observe the date sgiven by both for accuracy
5) Some times scientists predict major quakes ,say in Himalaya,either tomorrow or 100 years later. Now ,what is the use of such predictions?
6)Are we ready to think out of the box?