Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Saturday, January 30, 2010

MOONQUAKES ,A MYSTERY DEPENS-EARTH MAGAZINE

DO moon quakes occurs due to tidal force?.A report by earth magazine

Moonquake mystery deepens
Between 1969 and 1972, five Apollo missions installed seismic stations at their landing sites on the nearside of the moon. Because the moon was thought to be seismically dead, the instruments were left almost as an afterthought to detect meteor strikes. But from the time the stations were switched on until they were decommissioned in 1977, they recorded hundreds of internally generated moonquakes, some as strong as magnitude 5.5 on the Richter scale.

Apollo 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16 astronauts left seismometers on the moon that recorded hundreds of moonquakes until the experiments were shut down in 1977.
NASA
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For 40 years, scientists have scoured the Apollo seismic data for an explanation of these moonquakes. Because the moon lacks active plate tectonics, moonquakes must be driven by different forces than most quakes on Earth. Extreme temperature changes may account for the less common shallow moonquakes, but a good explanation for deep moonquakes remains elusive. Now, a new study crosses one long-standing theory about what triggers deep moonquakes off the list. Instead, the study suggests, moonquakes might have more in common with earthquakes than previously thought.
“Very early on, scientists recognized a link between moonquakes and the tidal forces exerted on the moon by the gravitational pull of the Earth,” says Bruce Bills, a geophysicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and co-author of the new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. “Moonquakes reoccur again and again in the same locations at the same time of the month, which seems to link them to the monthly tidal cycles” he says, “but so far, nobody has been able to construct a physical model or clear pattern to explain the relationship.”
The relationship between tides and moonquakes had been explored before, Bills says, but “most of the moonquake studies were done back in the 1970s soon after the data were collected, and we’ve learned a lot about geophysics and modeling since then.” By comparing data about where and when the moonquakes occurred with the well-understood cycles of tidal forcing, Bills and colleagues thought they could flesh out a moonquake pattern. But, Bills says, “it didn’t work out that way at all. Clearly there’s something else involved here besides the tides.”
One problem with the tidal forcing hypothesis, he says, is that while tides exert the same pressures from month to month on the entire moon, moonquakes only occur in limited regions. “If the tides were the only force involved in generating moonquakes, we’d expect them to be more widespread,” Bills says.
“The deep moonquake problem is similar in some ways to the deep earthquake problem,” says Cliff Frohlich, a seismologist at the University of Texas in Austin who was not involved in the new study. Deep earthquakes occur at extreme temperatures and pressures where brittle fracture, the cause of most shallow earthquakes, is not possible. So other phenomena — like dehydration embrittlement, where water and other volatiles open cracks in otherwise plastic rock, and transformational faulting, where minerals change to weaker or denser phases under extreme pressure, causing collapse — are thought to play a role, he says.
Because water has yet to be discovered on the moon, Bills and colleagues suggest mineral phase changes may make certain areas of the moon weaker, resulting in moonquakes triggered by tidal pressure. “This is one of the first broader viewpoints I’ve seen,” says Yosio Nakamura, also of the University of Texas at Austin. “Other studies have failed to find a clear relationship between tides and moonquakes, but this is the first to suggest an alternate mechanism.”
For now, Bills and colleagues plan to continue to study the Apollo data, but they say more data, collected by more instruments over a wider area of the moon, are needed to test their transformational faulting hypothesis. Frohlich and Nakamura are also hoping NASA will return to the moon and install a few dozen seismic stations. “Right now, we know virtually nothing about the moon’s interior,” Frohlich says. “So we have to make a lot of assumptions about the moon’s internal composition, which means all our theories are pretty sketchy. Sometimes so much speculation is fun, but more often, as in the case with deep moonquakes, it’s just frustrating

Monday, January 25, 2010

Sequence of aftershocks

It is interesting to observe that,major aftershocks at place where major quake has occurred ,is observed after 7 and half days and after 15 days (approximately). we have first major aftershock on 20/21st January 2010 at Haiti. By that sequence yet another major aftershock may occur on 28/29 th January 2010.
Time and again I have noticed this pattern.This is because,Moon plays a major role in triggering the earthquakes. After each 7 and half days Moon acquires next position exactly 90 degrees apart . Thus ,till the potent combinations is faded aftershocks continues,(in diminishing scale)

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Aftersocks at Haiti

Hi
pl note a major after shock of 6.1 occurred on Wednesday ie 8 days after major quake of 7.2.
As check my theory given on this blog. Moon plying the major role in quakes, major aftershocks occur after 7 and half days,because Moon acquires next potent position 90 degrees apart of original major quake position
slowly the potency of combination reduces and after 15 days (180 degrees apart) it may fade away.
regards Amit dave

Friday, January 15, 2010

January 2010 earthquakes

pl note series of major earthquakes came in the first/second week of the January, including HAITI
quake
watch the dates through out the year 2010.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Major earthquakes predicted for the year 2010

sir
pl observe following dates for major quakes (>6.5).All times in Indian Std Time (GMT+5.30 Hrs)
( place can not be determined correctly)

1) 15.01.2010 1400 Hrs 6.7
2) 18.01.2010 1300 6.6
3) 30.01.2010 1330 6.5
4)15.02.2010. 0730 6.6
5) 28.02.2010 1900 6.8
6)11.03.2010 1100 6.5
7)15.03.2010 2300 6.9
8)29/30.03.2010 7.0 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
9)11.04.2010 1300 6.5
10) 25.04.2010 2100 6.6
11)20/21.5.2010 6.6 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
12)05.06.2010 0400 7.1
13) 6.06.2010 0530 7.4
14) 12/13.06.2010 7.1
15)26.06.2010 1230 7.1
16)04.072010 0400 7.0
17) 11.07.2010 2300 6.8
18) 16/17.07.2010 7.1 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
19) 23.07.2010 1900 6.9
20) 26.07.2010 0500 7.1
21) 31.07.2010 0900 6.5
22) 10.08.2010 1100 6.7
23)12/13.08.2010 7.3 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
24) 24.08.2010 1300 7.0
25) 37.08.2010 1000 7.4
26) 01.09.2010 0900 7.0
27) 3.09.2010 1130 7.3
28) 8/9.09.2010 7.6 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
29)15.09.2010 1200 6.6
30) 23.09.2010 0900 7.2
31) 30.09.2010 1500 6.9
32)6/7.10 2010 6.6 (12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
33) 9.10.2010 2300 6.6
34) 20.10.2010 0930 6.9
35) 23.10.2010 0600 6.7
36)2/3.11.2010 6.6 12 Noon to 12 noon
37)16.11.2010 0530 7.0
38)21.11.2010 1200 6.8
39) 23.11.2010 1800 6.7
40)29/30.11.2010 6.7 12 Noon to 12 Noon
41)6/7.12.2010. 6.6 12 Noon to 12 Noon
42)21.12.2010 0830 6.8
43)27/28.12.2010 6.7 12 Noon to 12 Noon
In all 13% dates are given for the year to watch.

Expected accuracy os more than 75%
regards
Amit Dave








Friday, January 08, 2010

Earthquakes for the year 2010

The probable dates for major eartquakes for the year 2010 will be posted soon ,caclulated using fo;;owing guidelines
1) After my 15 years ofresearch on the earthquake prediction I have found that
a) Major Earthquakes do occur on full Moon and New moon day.(rarely on neap tide dates).
b) All full moon and new moon dates are not prone to major quakes . Factors to be watched are
i) Moon nearset to earth
ii) earth nearest to sun
iii) Jupitor nearest to earth
iv) Major planets(Jupitor,Saturn and Venus) are changing the direction from direct to retrogate or vice a versa
v) Aspects of other planets with Moon and Earth
vi) Declination of Moon and Sun
vii) Eclipses
The dates can be fine tuned according to above perameters.
c) Time is decided by the hour Moon aspects/opposes or joins Sun or Jupitor.
D) Intensity is judged by the proximity or clear aspects.
2) You have given 12 days in amonth( 6 days for full moon and 6 days for new moon.) ie 40% of days.Accuracy expected is more than 50% for quakes more than 6.5.
3) I shall give( with in couple of days) 30 dates for the year 2010.It means 8.3% of dates . I expect accuracy more than 75%
4) can we not help people ( at quake prone places ) to remain alert on ,say 10% odd dates?
wait and watch
Amit Dave

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Major Quakes occured in first week of January 2010

please note my predictions regarding major earthquakes in first week of January 2010.
There were seris of major quakes (>6.5) occured in first week,including one major quake(7.2 ),with tsunami waves.
I have certain ponts to be raised to USGS
1) Is it not worthwhile to predict major quakes (>7.0) with this accuracy?
2) Why do we need prediction either 0% or 100%? can we not start with accuracy of more than 60%?
3) Are we not open to any theory other than plate tectonics?
4) If my prediction accuracy is a matter of chance, anybody has the same probability as of mine.
I hereby request anyone(in general and USGS in perticular) to give dates of probable major quakes (>6.8) . I hall than post dates of major quakes till 31st December 2010. We will observe the date sgiven by both for accuracy
5) Some times scientists predict major quakes ,say in Himalaya,either tomorrow or 100 years later. Now ,what is the use of such predictions?
6)Are we ready to think out of the box?