Think out of the box,Earthquakes can be predicted. Donate research paypal e mail account amitjdave@yahoo.com PayPal.Me/earthquakeprediction
Hi
Here are potent dates for major (6+) quake prediction.
1)2nd Dec 2022.........6.4
2)8th December....6.9
3) 16th Dec .........6.2
4)23rd/24th December....7+
5)29th December.....6.7
Locations not predicted for obvious reason.
Date and Time as per IST
Window period +or - 1 day
Watch
Amit
Hawaii volcano Eruptions
I wander why there were no major (7+) quake during 25th to 26th November as predicted and posted.
Tomorrow a study of major ( 6+ quakes) will be posted here ,which will show how locations can be Predicted
As a thumb rule 80%+ quakes occurs at locations where
1) Moon is at Zenith and/or 180 degree apart
2)Sun is at Zenith and/or180 degree apart
3)Where Sun is rising or setting
4) Where Moon is rising or setting
Balance 20% respond to strong/ closer Jupiter,Mars,Venus ,Saturn in that order ,when they are at Zenith
tolerance is +or - 10 degree longitudes
Study will be done for 8.5+ quakes
Amit
Hi
One more hot prediction.
A 6.2 quake at Maxico on 22.11.2022 at 22.09 IST
WATCH ACCURACY OF DATE ,TIME AND LOCATION
WATCH MOON AND SUN JUST ABOVE (ZENITH) AT MAXICO
WAKE UP USGS
Hi.
Watch accuracy
A 7 mag quake at Solomon Island today ie 22 nd
Nov 22 ,at 2.03 UTC.,as against predicted date of 23rd.
Watch the accuracy of hypothesis..of location
+0r - 20 degree from Zenith location of Sun
Keep watching/Moon
Amit Dave
Hi
A 6.9 Quake at Indonesia on 18th November 2022, at 19.07 Indian Standered Time ,as against predicted date and time 19th November at 14.00 hrs IST
Yes ,an error of 19 hrs .( earlier quake)
But much better than seismologist prediction of
" a major quake now or 200 yrs from now at........location"
Some corollary of the theory are
1) If we want to remain alert ,generally, we should look at the Moon position ,where it is overhead (zenith) and 180 degree away from it ,on other side of the globe ,for +or -one day of the predicted date. The longitudes (+ or - 20 degrees) from the zenith position and 180 degree apart ( with + or - 20 degree deviation)need to be observed .
2) fifty years from now ,it should be possible, to, control and regulate the magnitude of major quakes by delabarate and planned volcanic eruption as we predict perfectly the quake with date ,time and location .
The tidal pull pressure built up inside the crust can be manipulated by planned volcanic eruption at remote island ,there by reducing the built up tidal pull and there by reducing magnitude of impending major quakes in populated area.
As both the natural disasters are due to same tidal built up pressure inside the crust
Amit
Hi
Here are some probable time slots (+ or - 2 hrs) for major (6+) quakes to occurs in rest of the days of the month
Time in IST ( Indian Standered TimeUTC+5.30 hrs)
1) 19th November 22....14.10 hrs.....(6+)
2)24th November...........04.30 hrs....(6.5+)
3) 25th November.........11.55 hrs...(6.5+)
4) 26th November.......6.05 hrs......(6.5+)
Locations are not predicted, as not allowed by Indian Disaster Act 2005.
If USGS/ERI/JMA/IIT needs, can be forwarded to personal mails
Amit
Hi
Here is an open invitation for seismologist to cross check my theory
USGS data available
From 01.01.2021 to 01.01.2022 there are total 157 earthquakes which are greater than 6
it means in a year ,ie 360 days there were 257 quakes which were greater than 6
ie 157/360=0.436 quakes of 6+ magnitude per day
Now invitation
For the current month dates 24th ,25th and 26th (ie November 2022) and as per time in UTC ,
observe the quakes which are 6+ ,all over the world
As per law of average it should be
0.436x3 = 1.3 say 2 quakes ( to be safer side)
Now what seismologist in general and USGS in particular believes should be the number of 6+ quakes in these three days to be well above average .
What is the figure they thing fit to be considered worthy to have a second look?
Double?....ie 4 quakes in 3 days?
three times..? ie 6 quakes in 3 days
five times ?...ie 10quakes in 3 days
watch out
Amit
My cycle quake theory for aftershocks states that ,major aftershocks, if at all to come are most probable on 7th/8th day and 14th /15th day.
This is because after seven and half days Moon moves 90 degree and after 15 days 180 degrees.
However ,it is not necessary that aftershocks will be of lesser magnitude.
Yes ,generally they are of smaller magnitude because the strong configuration of planets slowly diffuses (ie move apart) with time and hence lesser magnitude
However, if there is another stronger combination waiting after 7/8 th days or 14/15th day ,the aftershocks may be stronger than original quake.
hi
Though Moon have no active plate tectonics , Moon quakes do Occur . The maximum magnitude could be 5.7 or so.
Now How and why do Moon have quakes
The great Seismologist have suggested three reasons
1) Meteor impact
2) Shrinking of planet
3) The tidal effect of Earth on Moon
Now Moon have some very deep quakes about 100 km .How do the seismologist explain this?
What makes such quakes
Surprisingly enough , they (seismologist agree and believe that the Earth tidal pull is responsible for moon quakes. The beauty of this is ,they have also noticed maximum moon quake Every 27 to 28 days ., when earth is closest to Moon .
What a partial acknowledgement of tidal pull teory
Unfortunately , there are no active seismometer on Moon now , otherwise ,they could watch a huge spike in Moon quakes this Month .
In fact ,Earth being bigger and ,when closer to Moon along with other bigger planets closest, could play a havoc on Moon
wake up USGS
Amit
Hi
Recently an Earthquake of 7 magnitude at Fiji on 12th Nov was at a great depth of around 580 kms.
Now we have seen that how plate tectonics tries to explain this by way of subduction zone deep quakes. In earlier post we have also seen that ,how that idea is nit logical and correct.
Now ,I will explain how tidal pull theory can explain this.
1) Most if the quakes (95%+) are at a depth up to 100 kms .This can be easily explained by tidal pull acting on upper crust of about 100 kms
2) Below this there is Asthenospere up to 200kms ,which is partially molten
3) There is a solid part from 200 km to 660 kms
4( Below thus there is lower menle which is capable of flowing from 660 km to 2900 kms
Now what happens is
A) All normal quakes (95+%) occure up to 100 to 150 kms ,which can explained easily
B) However is tidal pull breaks the solid part between 200 to 660 kms ,there could also be quake ,which is deeper up to 600 kms.
So ,in nutshell
X) if tidal pull breaks open the upper crust ie up to 100 kms ,the quakes occurs up to Max 100 to 120 kms ,which comprises of 95+% of quakes
Y) However the tidal pull in lower menle (660 to 2900 km) breaks the solid part between 200 to 600 kms ,the quakes will be deeper.
So ,the subduction plate going below right up to 500 km and then disintegrate to produce deep quakes is not coorect( this was proved in earlier post )
Hi
Please note one more major quake at Chile today ie 13th November 2022.
On an average three to four 6.5 magnitude quake occurs every month.
Why then so many major quakes (almost daily one) occur this month?
Do plate tectonics have any answer to this?
Are these just by chance?
Amit
Hi
One more quake ,5.4 at Nepal.
Tremors in New Delhi -NCR
Keep counting for this month
Hi
As mentioned earlier ,this month will witness few major 7+quakes.
Keep counting
Today ,ie 12th November 22 a 7.1 quake at Fiji.
The problem is the quake occured at 587.2km depth.(ref USGS)
Woh!
How do we explain this with plate tectonics.
The maximum depth of earth crust is around 50 -60 kms.
How the quake occured at a depth where there is no plate to collide at a whooping depth of 587.2 km
ANY ANSWERS OR EXPLANATION BY PLATE TECTONICS?
Now I will discuss the arguments given by plate tectonics for quakes at this depth.
Explaination given...
Quakes at such greater depth ( say this one at 587 kms) occurs at subduction zone. One plate slides below the another plate and keep sliding downward. At great depth this plate (which is going down ) deforms and create quakes at such great depth.
Now some points
1) At such depth of 587 kms the temp could be around 2500 to 3000 degree Celsius.
2) The melting point temp of rocks is around
2000 to 2400 degree Celsius
3) Why then this crust whichbis going down should not get melted ,before reaching this great depth?
4) At a rate of say 5 mm per year ,if the plate is going down ,it will take 117 million years to reach this depth. How can the solid rock remain solid at 3000 degree temp and for 117 million years?
Any Explation?
AMIT DAVE
hi
please note one more date hit major earthquake prediction for this month A major quake of 7.3 at Tonga today ie 11th November 2022 . A date hit 7+ quake prediction
By this public forum ,I would like to ask USGS(USA) and NDMA and NIDM (INDIA) as to how many date hit major quake predictions are required before they can have a closer look to the theory ,which is other than plate tectonics
In fact , I can forecast the locations also ( with fair amount of accuracy ) ,if required by USGS or NDMA/NIDM . However, I should be protected from the national Disaster Act 2005 (India) under which it is an offense to predict all three aspects of a quake
1) Date
2) Magnitude
3)Location
This can be treated as spreading rumors
If USGS in general and Govt of India indemnify me against this I will post longitudes (+ or -10 degrees) on both sides of globe
regards
Amit Dave
hi
Plate tectonics suggests that , there was a super continent named Pangaea. This super continent was broken in several pieces and each one drifted apart. Thus ,the world continents as we see are formed.
Now ,several plates are formed and they move and collide with one another. When the built up pressure is released by movement of one plate over the other ,the Earthquakes and Volcano occur.. Himalayas was formed by such collision of two plates which started some 50 million years back. Even today ,Himalaya is increasing in height by about 5 mm every year
By this calculation ,the height of Himalayas should be more than 250 kms and not just 8600 odd mtrs.
Now Some questions
1) How did the super continent broken ? by which force ?
First answer was given by Platte tectonics was- Centripetal force-. When this was rejected ,the now accepted explanation is by Heat currents of molten magma under the crust .
Now my question is -
If the splitting force of heat current was there (below the super continent) ,it would have not allowed the super continent to be formed there ,in the first place.
How do we explain this?
2) Is it not possible that ,the super continents got separated by the force of earthquakes ?
3) How do plate tectonics explain earthquake and volcanic eruption at locations other than plate boundaries?
The explanations given by plate tectonics is like this...
As per modified plate tectonics, there are some intra plate faultlines.These are small faultlines inside a bigger plate.Due to such intraplate fault lines quakes at places other than plate boundaries occur ,one like Latur(Maharashtra, India quake).
However ,the question is whether such intraplate small faultlines can have relative motion inside a bigger plate,that can cause an Earthquake?
Where as for volcanic eruption at places other than plate boundaries ,the explanation given by plate tectonics is like this..
There are some extra hot spots inside the crust(???!!!how and why?).These extra hot spots of lava are responsible for volcanic eruption at places away from plate boundaries (only assumptions)
4) Why on a given potent date there are several major quakes all over the globe on various plates not connected in any way ?
5) The main proof produced by plate tectonics is that ,the shape of continents are like matching puzzle pieces and the fossil remains found in separated continents are same.
Now ,all this can be justified if we say that ,the super continent was broken and separated by violent quakes.
No heat currents / convection currents have power to breake the continents completely
6) Why plate tectonics can not calculate the built-up pressure and hence probable dates of major quakes.
It is like this..
We know
a) area of plates
b) depth of plates
c) density of earth crust
d) velocity of their movemnt
e) Surface area in contact at plate boundaries
f) shearing force required to break the crust
why then ,the kgf /sq mtr at plate boundaries can not be calculated.
why we can not remain alert when the kgf/sq mtr reached shearing force
why do seismologist say /predict that "major quake in Himalayas can occur anytimes from today to 200 yrs from now"
what is the use of such prediction?
Who will remain alert 24x7 for 200 years?
Any answers ?
Regards
Amit Dave
hi
Why this month is more potent?
Say take for example the dates 25/26th November 2022.
If you see and observe I have given 7+ prediction rating for these two dates
Some of the major contributing factors are as follows
1) The Sun is closest to Earth and at higher Declination
2) The Moon is closest to Earth and of the highest (rare -26.40 degrees ) declination .Though Moon can go up to Max + or -28.43 degree declination once in 18.66 years .
The month and year on which it will reach its 18.66 year peak is March 2025 (which will be more potent)
However ,in general ir remains between 22 to 25 degrees
3) Mars is closest to Earth and at Maximum declination
4) Venus and Mercury are also at Maximum declination
SO the New Moon of 24th ,25/26th are more potent
Now for understanding why these maximum declination and stand still positions are more potent
Say on 25/26th November after achieving maximum declination of -26.40 ,the Moon will return to northward movement ie will reach 0 (at Equator) and later to + ie North side
Now what actually happens is sudden stoppage of southward moment of Moon acts as a break to the pull on molten lava,as if your are thrown forward when a break is applied to your car (change of momentum) .Further it starts moving in opposite direction the next day ,thus dragging the lava under tidal pull
This makes imbalance in the internal lava/magma and if crosses the threshold limit breaks the upper crust ,causing the quakes
Now ,why all earlier tidal pull, theories never justified the co relation between major quakes and tidal pull is ,the seismologist only looks for phases of Moon ie New Moon and Full Moon
Yes ,the new Moon and Full have some potency but all new moon and full moon are not capable of producing major ,6+, quakes
All other factors need to be considered like
1) Maximum Declination
2) Planets Changing Direction from Direct to Retro gate or vice a versa
3)Sun and Moon at same declination
4) Speed of SUN,MOON and other planets
5) Aspects of Moon with closer planets and resultant pull
THUS ON THE GROUND OF PARTIAL STUDY OF TIDAL PULL THEORY (ONLY SUN AND MOON STUDY) THE TIDAL PULL THEORY CAN NOT BE DISCARDED
Regards
Amit Dave
A brief note on Earthquake prediction
1) Earth consists of thin (100km) plate and semi solid magma below it about 6000km
2) As there is high tide and low tide in oceans, similar tidal pull applies to semi solid magma
3) The date on which the tidal pull crosses a critical value ,the lava breaks the plate partially and quake occurs
4) If the pull is directly over weeak boundaries, plate boundaries, a major quake occurs
5) If the pull breaks open the mouth of volcano an eruption occurs
6) The Moon has max tidal pull being closer
7) when Sun ,Moon and major planets joins ( like full moon ,yesterday, new moon ,) the pull is maximum
8) When a planets is closer ,as Jupiter now ,and changes direction from Direct to retouching or vice-versa, it produces imbalance in pull and jerk.
Thus some of the dates are prone to major quakes.
Yes ,major quakes occurs at plate boundaries, it is only because it is weaker section
Earthquakes are not due to plates ,but plates are due to earthquakes
How do plate tectonics explain ..
1)Major quakes at location other than plate boundaries
2) why some dates are prone?
3) why series of small quakes (less than 3) daily?