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Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Puzzling Moon tidal pull on ocean waters

hi
 Time and again  I was made to understand that, the tidal pull on earth of planets is negligible except some pull by Moon on Earth. Hence, I have started to observe the high tide data of Mumbai (Bombay) port trust against the Moon position and distance
  In the current month ie August I have some puzzling observations. As the other planets including Sun tidal pull is negligible (as it is believed by science), I have only considered Moon distance ,declinations and aspect with Sun. The table is like this

Date....................Moon distance.........Moon declination...........High tide max at Mumbai port in mtrs
           
17th................57 ER(earth radius)....-19...................................3.76.....(Moon at perigee)

18th.............57.1...........................-16...................................4.06

19th.............57.4...........................-13...................................4.36

20th.............57.8..........................-9.....................................4.6....(Full Moon day)

21st..........58.4............................-4....................................4.74

22nd........59.1.........................0........................................4.78 (highest in August)..( Moon on Equator)

Now questions are
1) If only Moon is responsible (to the greater extent) ,why this anomaly? ie why highest on the day other than perigee of Moon?
2) If Sun is also considered why not highest on full Moon day?
3) Why it is highest on 0 declination? even when it is farther than at Perigee or full Moon day?
   Moon only closer to the extent of equator budge portion which far less than one ER (Earth radius)

Any idea? any ready software that can give me projected high tide amount on a given date at given place?

Amit

16 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The height of the tide depends on a lot of things in addition to the moon.

Weather conditions, both locally and at sea, for example. Shape of the ocean floor is another.

There are programs for it but they aren't all that accurate. There are also databases of measured tide heights but that requires that there be a tide buoy in the area of interest.

The only obsderved tidal effect on quakes was found by John Vidale et al and it was for small quakes on shallow angle thrust faults at low tide, the reduced water weight unloading the fault.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, Great posts! Any more predictions for August? John

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I made a table of declination max or min, distance min and phase full or new plus quakes.

The quakes seem to avoid days when all 3 are close together.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
shape of the ocean floor does not matter,as we are talking about the same location. Wind speed and direction may not be considered as, they were not known , in advance,while preparing annual tide tables
Thus no conclusion,as why this anomaly
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
I would like to see the tables , you have prepared.pl send e mail
Roger, again ,it is the question of how much major(7.0+) quakes avoids these combinations
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Table on it's way.

Tide tables are estimates, actual height is affected by elements I mentioned.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Although the moons pull on the tides is 3 times that of the sun, the sun actually has more influence on the moon than the earth, meaning when there are sunspots/coronal holes etc, the pull from these areas can be 100's of times stronger.

The earth/moon is a binary system with the gravitational pull off center of the earth, this means the earth and moon wobble around the sun.

Dunno if thats of any help to you.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

What happened?

No posts from you recently.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
There are two reasons for this
1) I am busy calculating for probable major quake in last week of Dec 2013 and first week of January 2014

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.in/2013/07/earthquake-prediction-for-1st-january.html

2)I am convinced that, my predictions are far better than odds for major quakes, and will concentrate on basic works ,rather than proving my self correct
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

> There are two reasons for this
> 1) I am busy calculating for probable major quake in last week of Dec 2013 and first week of January 2014

> http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.in/2013/07/earthquake-prediction-for-1st-january.html

That's a pretty long lead-in period.

> 2)I am convinced that, my predictions are far better than odds for major quakes, and will concentrate on basic works ,rather than proving my self correct

That's exactly the wrong thing to do. I've already shown you that your methods are wrong. You can't just declare yourself right.

You can't get an idea and then look for proof. You look at the evidence and try to come up with an explanation.

Roger

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

As a point of interest; there has never been a quake of the predicted size range in any of the 4 areas listed in your end of the year forecasts.

Or at least not in the 1993-2012 time range.

Roger

Anonymous said...

" 2) I am convinced that, my predictions are far better than odds for major quakes, and will concentrate on basic works ,rather than proving my self correct"

If you believe your ways of predictions are correct, thats all that counts, you are correct in focusing on the predictions and not trying to prove your self, that just drains you much more than the actual theory.


As for mine, the moon followed sunspot 11823 as i mentioned the other day , we had the M5.8 off that shortly after posting but my post wasnt published.

The Power hasnt been above B/B -beta, = No M6+ quakes.

The Suns very quite at the moment.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Today we find Venus at 90 Degrees with the earth and sun ,
as said watch for...
A 6.1
NW of Raoul Island, New Zealand 2013-08-28 03:54:41 UTC+01:00

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Just for exercise I've extended my programs to cover all of 1993-2014.

Naturally I can't find hits until the quakes happen but I can predict where your windows should be.

Let me know if you want a copy of the output.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thanks. pl forward it to my mail id
Over the years the prediction has become a sort of fine tuning and is more an art (after following basic guide lines) than following software program.There are still some fine judgement which I could not explain you
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The problem with that is that it works best after the fact.

I'd bet money you're just kidding yourself. Any good method can be expressed as clear rules. And those can be programmed.

Roger