Can earthquakes be predicted?

Total Pageviews

Search This Blog

Monday, February 21, 2011

Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake of 6.3 on 22nd February 2011

hi
Time and again the dates have come true. Of course ,the magnitude is not as expected.This is because the simultenious volcanic eruptions but the damage is huge with human casualities
I have something more to state
The tidal pull ,of planets is negligible ,this is what science says.However,time and again ,it is noticed that the quakes occurs due to planets changing direction ,proximity and aspects
Watch christ church quakes . The Moon ,Venus(closer) and Saturn have close aspects.Besides Moon is closer
This is why the date,22nd February 2011 was predicted for 7 quake
Do we need to think again about tidal pull of planets?
regards
Amit

42 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I apologize; you are right. The NZ 6.3 quake was indeed a date hit.

When I checked your list of predictions I was looking at January.

However, since you had predicted 19 and 21 with 3 day windows, it really counts as one 5 day window (18-22) with odds close to 40% for a 7+ and even higher for a 6+.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thank you very much.Yes,it is practically a 5 day window(continuous) with two seperate date prediction
regards
Amit

ghanshyam_astrologer said...

hello amit jii
i am a regular follower of your blog. your research work is really appreciable n much valuable for mankind. please carry on .
best wishes
regards
GSR

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I checked the odds with the following results;

For a 3 day window:

7+ 0.115
6+ 0.665

For a 5 day window:

6+ 0.841

So getting a hit on a 6+ quake with a 5 day window is not nearly as impressive as getting a hit on a 7+ quake with a 3 day window.

Roger

musicians friend said...

Any other dates to watch for in Christchurch?

gb said...

hi amit
once again great work. i always pray on the days you have predicted so that no one gets hurt or die . missing someone or dear ones is very horrible .i want all of them to pray harder in the days so that only mild quakes occur and no casualties at all

gb

Tony said...

Hi
Have you got any predictions for Marlborough NZ, top of the south island ? I am away on business and my wife and two children live in this region ?
I would appreciate your comments.
Regards
Tony
tonytheshami@gmail.com

Tony said...

Hi Amit
Have you any predictions for Picton, Marlborough NZ top of the south island.

I am away on business and my family live there.

I would apprecaite your help.
Regards
Tony

AMIT said...

hi Tony
Let me make I clear that,as of now ,I can not predict the place .Hence,there is no need to panic.Relax
Amit

AMIT said...

gb
Thank you very much.
The problem is science have already declared that quakes can be predicted.Hence,all my attempts,despite series of date hits are useless.
USGS and Disaster Management Authorities are not ready to believe
Surprisingly, science /seismologists predict-there will be a major quake at certain place either tomorrow or after 500 hundred years.-What is the use of such prediction?Instead, if we have 25/30 odd dates in a year to take care,it would be easy to handle disasters.
If the dates can be predicted with considerable accuracy ,it means ,the quakes follow some rule.Now the question of pin pointing place is left out. I am sure ,if enough time ,efforts and resources are allocated ,this also can be solved
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Musicians friend
There could be series of after shocks ,that can occur after a major quake.However,caution dates for major aftershock is after 7th/8th Day of major quake.ie 28th Feb and 1st March.
Please note that ,this is just a possibility and not necessarily the guarantee

Nilawati said...

Im in Christchurch city. Do you think there will be another 7+ quake this year?
Thank you.

kumon.ilam@gmail.com

AMIT said...

nilawati
I do not predict places.so ,there is no need to panic.Relax
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi

We have a major quake,6.3, as predicted on 22nd February 2011.Though I can not pin pont the places correctly as of now ,but in principle it can be done providded.enough efforts,time and resources are allocate to the work

If we talk of the aftershocks,ie major aftershocks,they normally occur on 7th/7th Day of the main quake.

Thus,I would suggest, we should remain cautious on dates,27th,28th February and 1st March 2011 .

This phenomena,is termed as- cycle quakes-by me

Moon is the main trigger in all major quakes.After a major quake ,somewher between 7th and 8th day the Moon acquaries another position which is 90 degrees apart (Moon mooves 1degree in 2Hrs).Thus,7th and 8th day become another probable date,though less potent.

Amit

laura.randell said...

Hi Amit.
I live in Dunedin, New Zealand (very close to Christchurch) and have heard that there will be another majot quake around the 20th March that will flatten either Dunedin or Christchurch. Is this true??

AMIT said...

laura
please do not trust such roamers.
I can not predict the places correctly, nonetheless relax.
Only (and only )for probable dates you can see my blog or web page

http://earthquakepredictionbyamitdave.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ and go to calender for March 2011.
yes .March 20th ,2011 is probable date for quake up to 7.0
But...But place can not be predicted
Do no believe such news
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Lot of people ask about the location of the quake.There are several problems involved in it

1)The place depends on resultant tidal pull acting at the time of prediction.If the time accuracy is not in minutes(possibly),the place is lost.Because Earth moves ,both in orbit and along axis in the time of inaccuracy.
Hence,as of now place accuracy s not obtained

2)As per Indian Disaster Act, giving all three aspects ie Date,magnitude and place may amount to an offense,under spreading rumors
Hence ,I do not give places.Though ,I keep notes in my private diary for cross checking and improving the accuracy of place prediction
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
There are two quakes -one at Bio Bio Chile (5.8) and other at Ester Island (6.0) during 28th Feb and 1st March
We have also some aftershock at Christ church between 4.0 and 4.5 during this period
Amit

Christchurch Guy said...

Hi Amit.

I must say I am finding your website and blog very interesting. I live in Christchurch NZ where he have been hit with the 7.1 quake in september last year and now recently the destructive 6.3 quake. I notice that you are predicting a big quake on the 20th of march. I find that extremely interesting because there is another guy - called Ken Ring (the "moon man") who is also predicting a big quake on that day. He has even said it will likely hit somewhere around Christchurch. This is kind of freaky, and I know you are not prepared to say where you predict the quake will hit. But I was wondering how likely you think it is that your 20 March prediction will come true? 50%? 80%? 90%? And by this I mean the chances of there being a big quake anywhere in the world.

Ken Ring has been completely rubbished by the NZ and local media, with people thinking he is completely wrong and has no idea what he is talking about. Even though he did predict the most recent 6.3 quake, they think it was a fluke. I have always thought that maybe he could be onto something, and now with you predicting the same thing, I am even more sure that Ken is going to be right.

I would be interested in hearing all your thoughts about this. And have you ever heard of Ken "the moon man" Ring?

Thanks.

AMIT said...

Christchurch guy


Thank you all,very much for your kind support
1) I assure you that,what your Moon man and myself are saying is absolutely correct.I am doing this research since last 17 years.My theory first appeared in a local magazine 15 years back. People have objected and ridiculed me hundreds of time.I am basically an Engineer with through out distinction academic career,and I do not want to put forward anything which is not scientific and logical
I have a ground work of more than 5000 quakes calculation behind the theory.
The theory is absolutely scientific.
The Moon is the main trigger for all major quakes.However ,there are
some more aspects that I consider before giving the date.
please note all full Moon or New Moon does not give quakes.There are various other factors,in my theory
I would like to contact Moon Man.
My e mail is

amitjdave1@indiatimes.com

2) The chances of earthquake,on 20th March 2011(with + or - one day window) 6.5 Minimum,is almost 100%.Please note I do not give place as of now


science,seismology and plate tectonics can not explain some of aspects of earthquakes forget predicting..like

1)why there are quakes at places other than plate boundaries ?

2) Why there are several major quakes on a given date ,all over the globe and on various plates?

3)Why on some given dates major quakes and volcanic eruptions occurs simultaneously?

The problem is we are treating effect (plates) as the cause (of quake)

After so much research and millions of Dollars put in if we/science, predict like this-

-There will be a major quake at certain place either tomorrow or 500 years later- what is the use of such

prediction?

DO we have to remain alert 24*7 till 500 years?

I do not understand what is the harm in keeping vigil on some 25 odd dates in a year at prone places?

Any way thanks again

regards

Amit

Sammie said...

Amit,

I find your work absolutely fascinating. Also a fan of Ken Ring ('The Moon Man') and it's even more interesting that both of your predictions are similar for March 20th. This is how you can get in touch with him: http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Contact.aspx

So, you're convinced that there will be a 'big' earthquake on the 20th of March somewhere in the world (I know you can't specify a place for reasons already mentioned)? Ken says that there is increased potential for a quake on this date but it may not necessarily occur. But, you seem more sure. I hope that if it does indeed occur, it's well away from any major towns/cities .. better yet offshore!

AMIT said...

Sammie
No need to panic.Small quakes occur(4) on daily basis.
TO the best of my knowlede ,the quake of 6.5 will occur some where
Once, it is confirmed that ,the major quakes follow some rule,the place can be found out (in principle)Why it is little difficlt to pin point the place?
1) The major quake occurs when tidal pull is maximum,inside the earthcrust
2) Now,on a given date and time ,if the pull is maximum,the rsultant pull need to be found out
3)If ,we miss the time by ,+ or - 10 minutes ,the earh moves in orbite and on axis ,and the place caculated is missed.
4)If ,the time is correct,but the crust on tidal pull line is strong(not a plate boundry),the quake will wait till it finds ,plate boundry(ie weak spot)
5)Sometimes ,if the weak spotcomes above pull line ,earlier,the quake will occur little earlier than expected
Amit

Christchurch Guy said...

Thanks for that Amit. I see Sammie has given you the link to Ken's website. You can also contact him on Twitter..

http://twitter.com/kenringweather

I'm eagerly awaiting the 20th of March to see if your prediction comes true, I sort of hope you and Ken are right because it will give you so much credibility. I just pray that the quake strikes a place where there is no loss of life.

Keep up the good work! We all really appreciate what you are doing. Cheers.

Sammie said...

Thank you Amit.

I agree with 'Christchurch Guy'. In a way, your predictions coming true will definitely open the eyes of some folks.. just hoping that the devastation (if the quake does occur) is minimal and that no one gets hurt. Ken Ring has copped a lotta flak lately for 'scaremongering'. It's sad that some ppl will criticise without even trying to understand these theories. Continue with your good work!

Sarah said...

I have 2 children and not sure to leave or stay on 20th - and if I leave would the 18th be safe to travel?

AMIT said...

Sarah
Please do not worry. Be calm.Nothing wrong will happen
Love you all NZ people
regards to all
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Despite Moon at Apogee (far away),we have to day Chile Earthquake of 6.3.This means ,by cycle quake theory,the days after 7th/8th and 14th /15th may get quakes
Thus ,Moon on 19th20th March 2011 at closest and Full Moon,Jupiter and Venus faster and in close aspects,Mercury changing direction 30th March and joining Moon on 21st,Moon and Sun at same declination
are the reasons for a possible quake on 20th March 2011(+ or - 1 day.
If ,there is an Volcanic eruption during the period ,the magnitude may be reduced
But---But--Let me make it clear once again ,I DO NT PREDICT PLACE AND HENCE NOBODY SHOULD BE SCARED-
regards
Amit

arbab said...

hi amit...where's ur post or prediction about japans quake???wt will be its effect on 20 march EQ?or its or it was -9 window day?

AMIT said...

hi
Latest quake to day ie on 16th April at Queensland and New zealand ,5.8
as predicted
watch 17/18th April 2011
place of quake not known
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Due to my heavy engineering office work load, there may be some delay in my postings on this blog.
As long as I am in srvice,earthquake prediction research will be a part time affair.It is diffict to find time after 9-10 hrs of a days work, and 3 Hrs of Mumbai-Indai - transport (to and fro)
Amit

Hamish said...

Thankyou I have enjoyed reading the above and you have taught us alot through your words of wisdom

jdwag said...

i think 20 july

jdwag said...

i think july the 20th on wedesnsday

jdwag said...

i think july
Jdwag

jdwag said...

i thin it is

AMIT said...

jdwag
I think July 20th have no much potential to induce quake of 6+.
It would be rather July 22nd /23rd more prone to 6+ quakes
Any way ,let us wait and watch
Amit

AMIT said...

Jdwag
Here it is.6.4 quake off the East coast of Honshu,as predicted
AMit

Anonymous said...

i'm pretty much sure you are not right in this issue, it's already known fact that learning is beond everything.

בחינת בגרות במתמטיקה לימודי חשבונאות

AMIT said...

hi
watch till August 2011 end
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Exactly as predicted , a quake of 6.4 occured at Tonga ,to day ,ie on 5th September 2011.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0005pa8.php

Please note the date and magnitude accuracy
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
I shall give reasons for possible quakes till September end 2011.
Let us observe which criteria is more potent
We have pre requisites of major planet (jupiter) changing the direction is full filled ,till September end
Now
1)16th September
at 1400 UTC Jupiter and Moon Coisides.
2)20th September- Moon at Maximum
declination and Moon at 90 degrees to Sun
3)27th September-
New Moon,Moon at Perigee(closest-57.1ER-Earth Radious), Moon Venus Conjuction, Moon at Equater on 26th
Hence, looking at the strenght, 27th September 2011 will give major quake
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Cycle quake theory for major aftershocks

Few points to be noted
1) As of now predicting place is not possible,however,it is possible in principle
2) Idea of this blog is to make people aware that, WHAT WE AND SCIENCE KNOW IS NOT ALL. THE CAUSE OF EARTHQUAKES ARE DIFFERENT.
3) I do not intend to spread panic among people
4) However, as you have asked about the recurrence of quake at the same place,I wold state as
follows
The quakes may occur at the same place ,which is known as aftershocks and ,it is quit likely that the major aftershocks occur between 7th and 8th day
So, If you ask me about whether to remain alert,I would suggest the dates 26th and 27th September 2011
Amit