Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Monday, March 31, 2014

Earthquake prediction for April 2014

HI
 Here are the probable dates for 6+ earthquakes on April 2014.

1) 6th April.......................6.4

2)14th April....................6.8

3)20th April...................6.5

4) 23rd  April...............6.4

time window......+ or - one day

magnitude window.....+ or - 0.3

Locations  not predicted

Amit

34 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Consecutive windows are a problem.

What it amounts to is one 6 day forecast.

Consider; you could make a whole series of them and never miss a quake because you covered all the days.

Please avoid them if possible.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I think there is no problem in treating both prediction as separate. why do you want to mix it up?
I would not like to comment on your second remark. Let the date speak
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

My predictions for April, 2014

1) April 2

2) April 5

3) April 8

4) April 11

5) April 14

6) April 17

7) April 20

8) April 23

9) April 26

10) April 29

Mag 6+, 3 day windows

I will catch every mag 6+ this month without fail.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

My first prediction was a HIT!

A mag 8.0 and you missed it.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Come on, I am not in a mood to crack a joke !!!
By your own standard, if you are covering all the dates of the month ,the prediction is useless.
By the way I give 3 to 4 dates of the months, ie it covers 9 to 12 days out of 30.
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
You must have noticed that, 30/31st of March are also potent ,which was already posted..
Yes , I admit ,it was expected up to 6.8-7.0 and not 8+
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
You must have noticed that, 30/31st of March are also potent ,which was already posted..
Yes , I admit ,it was expected up to 6.8-7.0 and not 8+
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You're correct. My consecutive windows are worthless as predictors and your two consecutive windows are worth less because they act as one window.

A similar case involves windows that overlap. I had to include code that prevents a quake from being counted twice.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I am unable to understand why the window periods can not be treated as separate.
If the quake occurs in first three days ,it is in first window and if occurs in next three days it is in second window.
Unless you have any software restrictions it is not a problem.
I f you want,you can give one hour break between two windows
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Mars is at closest (0.618 AU-Astronomical Unit ie average distance of Sun to Earth) between 11th to 16th April 2014.
During these period When Moon at Equator (13th), Moon Joins Mars(14th),Full Moon on 15th, Moon at maximum declination(19th) are prone for 6+ quakes
Amit

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Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

> If the quake occurs in first three days ,it is in first window and if occurs in next three days it is in second window.

How is that different from my 10 consecutive windows?

If you were giving different locations it would be ok.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

After giving it some thought and consulting with others, I've decided to allow consecutive windows but will remind you that misses count against you so making many such predictions will lower your score.

Roger

somesh said...

Hi Amit,
You have a good Blog on Earthquake prediction.

I don't know on what basis you are predicting earthquake but as per vedic astrology, April 2014 is a volatile month for Earthquakes based on planetary placements & influences.

I have written an interesting article on my vedic astrology blog about this.

If Interested please refer link below.
http://someshsastroworld.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/chandra-grahantotal-lunar-eclipse-on_26.html

Best Wishes
Somesh
http://someshsastroworld.blogspot.co.uk

AMIT said...

Pl note 7.6 quake at soloman to day ie
13th as predicted.
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
pl note 6.9 quake at Bouvet Island region on 15th at 3.57 UTC ,AS PREDICTED. PL NOTE DATE AND MAGNITUDE ACCURACY OF QIAKE
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

here are the mag 6+ quakes so far this month.

time,latitude,longitude,depth,mag
2014-04-01T23:46:46.520Z,-19.6416,-70.8171,20.13,8.2
2014-04-01T23:57:57.390Z,-19.8975,-70.9245,20.18,6.9
2014-04-02T16:13:27.380Z,7.9043,-82.345,31.56,6
2014-04-03T01:58:31.440Z,-20.268,-70.5558,22.83,6.5
2014-04-03T02:43:14.770Z,-20.518,-70.4979,31.09,7.7
2014-04-03T05:26:16.070Z,-20.8068,-70.5486,24.34,6.2
2014-04-04T01:37:51.130Z,-20.6214,-70.7393,20,6.1
2014-04-04T11:40:32.870Z,-10.5303,161.6719,63.77,6
2014-04-10T23:27:46.250Z,12.5138,-86.3789,13,6.1
2014-04-11T00:01:44.150Z,-20.7477,-70.7242,17.48,6
2014-04-11T07:07:21.980Z,-6.6249,155.0639,50,7.1
2014-04-11T08:16:48.410Z,-6.8554,155.0165,39.42,6.5
2014-04-11T20:29:15.080Z,11.7098,-85.9631,138.58,6.6
2014-04-12T05:24:25.560Z,-7.1163,155.2356,35,6.1
2014-04-12T20:14:39.620Z,-11.3149,162.2114,29.31,7.6
2014-04-13T12:36:18.710Z,-11.451,162.0692,35,7.4
2014-04-15T03:57:02.150Z,-53.5271,8.7041,11.74,6.9

Is it any wonder that some of your windows captured some of the quakes?

What about the ones you missed?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Here are your April predictions and quakes.

Lots of misses there.

Roger


time, latitude,longitude, depth, mag
2014-04-01 T23:46:46.520Z,-19.6416, -70.8171, 20.13, 8.2
2014-04-01 T23:57:57.390Z,-19.8975, -70.9245, 20.18, 6.9
2014-04-02 T16:13:27.380Z, 7.9043, -82.345, 31.56, 6
2014-04-03 T01:58:31.440Z,-20.268, -70.5558, 22.83, 6.5
2014-04-03 T02:43:14.770Z,-20.518, -70.4979, 31.09, 7.7
2014-04-03 T05:26:16.070Z,-20.8068, -70.5486, 24.34, 6.2
2014-04-04 T01:37:51.130Z,-20.6214, -70.7393, 20, 6.1
2014-04-04 T11:40:32.870Z,-10.5303, 161.6719, 63.77, 6
2014-04-05 <--
2014-04-06 | #1
2014-04-07 <--
2014-04-08
2014-04-09
2014-04-10 T23:27:46.250Z, 12.5138, -86.3789, 13, 6.1
2014-04-11 T00:01:44.150Z,-20.7477, -70.7242, 17.48, 6
2014-04-11 T07:07:21.980Z, -6.6249, 155.0639, 50, 7.1
2014-04-11 T08:16:48.410Z, -6.8554, 155.0165, 39.42, 6.5
2014-04-11 T20:29:15.080Z, 11.7098, -85.9631,138.58, 6.6
2014-04-12 T05:24:25.560Z, -7.1163, 155.2356, 35, 6.1
2014-04-12 T20:14:39.620Z,-11.3149, 162.2114, 29.31, 7.6
2014-04-13 T12:36:18.710Z,-11.451, 162.0692, 35, 7.4 <--
2014-04-14 | #2
2014-04-15 T03:57:02.150Z,-53.5271, 8.7041, 11.74, 6.9 <--


1) April 6 Miss

2) April 14 Hit

--------------------------------
Not yet

3) April 20

4) April 23


AMIT said...

Roger
Most of them are at same location (near -70 degree). As per your own statements ,these are aftershocks and need not be counted more than once
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's correct. I count correct predictions, not number of quakes captured.

Aftershocks are illegal if the main shock happened before the prediction was made.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Notice that your #2 hit was an aftershock.

I give you credit because your prediction was well in advance.

Odd thet you would miss the 8.2 earlier.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
pl note 7.2 quake at Mexico to day (18th ). Predicted date is 20th (+ or - one day)
Many 6.5+ quakes in this month as predicted
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's not a hit. Window opens 19th

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
pl note one more quake today, ie on 19th April(6.6 at PNG)
Roger, now you should be satisfied as far as time and magnitude windows are concerned
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, that's a hit.

Pretty hard to miss lately with mag 6+ quakes every day almost.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
one more quake of 7.5 at PNG in window period.
How many times one would say,these are flukes.
Moreover ,it was also predicted that April 11th to 20 th will witness major quakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So far it's 2 hits out of 3 predictions but the odds on a hit during this high seismicity period are also very high.

The penalty for missing cancels out the credit for hitting so your results are not significant.

The way to pass the test is to get hits that are improbable

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Two things to be noted here
1) When I predict well in advance , you can not say anything about high seismicity period

2) I am unaware of any terminology about possible and impossible prediction.
To the best of my knowledge , plate tectonics, Seismology and science (including USGS) strongly believe that ,all quakes are unpredictable
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

1) You predicted well in advance but when seismicity increases, so does odds on a hit.

2) Yes they do but your hits are just due to chance. Otherwise you'd do better than chance (and you don't)

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I am of the opinion that, the method of calculation of odds have some inherent flaws like considering clusters in averaging ,spreading out high seismic week in averaging ,not considering double quakes of prediction etc
Let people decide, as to whether , i am below or above average.
OR
let science /seismology predict better than what I do
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Probability is indeed a problem area but the method I use was devised by two PhD researchers.

Clusters are a problem. Consider a year with 365 mag 6+ quakes. If you say 365/365=1.000 you'd say every day is as likely as another but due to clustering all those quakes might be clustered into 30 days so the real odds are 30/365=0.084

The method I use reduces that considerably by counting the number of prediction length windows which have quakes in them.

I can give credit for multiple quakes in a window IF you predict how many will happen.

Why let people decide? They have no idea for the most part and truth is not decided by a vote anyway.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
6.7 quake at Canada.watch the accuracy of both time and magnitude window
How many hits for6.5 predictions ?
Are these hits just by chance?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I've tested every theory you've come up with and none of them work.

What does it take to convince you?

See my random predictions test on Earthwaves. I CAN do better than you by chance.

Tell me what test will convince you and I'll run it.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I've tested every idea you've come up with and they all failed.

See my random predictions on Earthwaves. I CAN do better than you by chance.

What will it take to convince you?

Propose a definitive test and I'll run it.
125 6564346
Roger