Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, April 25, 2010

Earthquakes and natural Disasters-Actual vs Predicted

Hi
Here is one more proof of dates prone to natural disasters.
please see my predicctd date of quake 25th April 2010 , 2100 Hrs Indian Std Time and 6.6 magnitude.Now look at the listbelow
1) Quake ,6.5, 26th April 2.59 UTC, Taiwan.(see+or -12 Hrs accuracy)
2) Quake ,6.1, 24Th April 7.41UTC , Indonesia
3) Tornedo,160 mph, Mississippi
4)Tornedo at Albama
5)Tornedo at Louissiana
6)Tornedo at arkansas
7) Cyclone at Assam -India
Now, some one have to explain it to me ,how do I believe that ,there is no co relation between all these.If science do not see it,I would not hasitate in sying science is blind folded
If some one says,these are all by chance,how do I believe?
If my predictions are below average I propose following test
Let any three persons give 10 random dates till December 2010.If and only if ,two out of thre can give more hits (more than 80%) I will believe,these predictions were by chance.
regards
Amit

21 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's not a good test.

It's entirely possible for 3 people to make 10 predictions apiece and have them all come out better than expected - by chance.

Run a test like that on a past year so you don't have to wait a year for results.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Just to save you the trouble, I ran the test for you.

I took all the 6+ quakes in 2008 and found the chances of a hit in a 3 day window was 0.7295

Then I selected 10 random dates for each of 3 cases and checked each one for a hit in a 3 day window. The total hits for each case was recorded.

Finally I counted the number of times all 3 cases had more hits than expected in 100 runs.

Typically there were 12 or 13 such winners in every 100 trial run.

Do you believe now?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

BTW, if you add in tornadoes, cyclones, hurricanes and forest fires, all you do is increase the probability of a hit which lowers the significance of the result.

As in "I predict the sun will rise tomorrow morning".

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1)If it is true statistically,if should be true practically also
2) I will explain how cyclones and tornado (not forest fire is also a part of tidal force theory
Tidal force acts on all layers
a)Lava
b)ocean water
C)Earth crust
d)Atmosphere
If at a given time if high tide forces are acting on x-x axis,low tide will be observed at y-y axis (90 (degrees)
At x-x axis there will be chance of quakes or eruption depending upon crust,as there is internal pressure
At y-y axis ,there will be low pressure created de to low tidal acting on it. The moment ,place moves away from low tide force ,high pressure air rushes to fill the partial vacuum,which in turn create tornado.If the air rush through ocean at 26 to 28 degree temprature,it gathers momenum and creates cyclones
There is no scientific reason for forest fire or war.
And yes you are right ,the sun will shine tomorrow,even if you or I close our eyes
Roger, unless I have scientific explanation ,I will not believe any thing including plate tectonic theory. Basically I am an Engineer with through out distinction in academic records and a National merit holder
Regards
Amit

AMIT said...

ROGER
What about clusters?Some dates do have clusters ,that plate tectonic does not believe or neglect them because they do not suit the theory itself.All hits should be multiplied by a ratio (total number of quakes in window period/ total numbers of quakes in a year)
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The reverse is also true;

If it's true statistically it's also true practically.

Therefore the case is closed and I'm right.

The problem with your explanation is that it doesn't work. The effect you propose is not observed in nature. Thus you are wrong.

How did you get to be an engineer without learning any statistics?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Plate tectonics have no problem with clusters. Different faults have different circumstances. Some store energy to a critical level and release it all at once. Some crackle before they break (foreshocks), some have many aftershocks and some do not.

The ratio you propose is not necessary. A prediction is right or wrong and one quake is all that's needed for a hit.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The reverse is also true;

If it's true statistically it's also true practically.

Therefore the case is closed and I'm right.

The problem with your explanation is that it doesn't work. The effect you propose is not observed in nature. Thus you are wrong.

How did you get to be an engineer without learning any statistics?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thank you very much. I thought blogs are used by gentlemen
regards
Amit

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AMIT said...

hi
I am sorry sir, I could not understand your laungauge
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Sorry; no offense intended. It was a serious question.

Roger

AMIT said...

Dear G702
I have translated the words through Google translator and I am sorry to state they are non parliamentary as well as vulgar.
I request you to refrain from doing the same again
Thank you very much
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
As per cycle tidal force theory and as already mentioned earlier, on 28 and 29th April 2010, 15 day cycle (of China quake and Iceland eruption) completes.Hence, there are chances of both during these two days.
To be precise 28th April2010 between 1130 UTC to 1530 UTC

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Will you admit you were wrong if nothing happens?

Roger

AMIT said...

亲爱的G702
我有翻译通过谷歌翻译的话,我很抱歉,他们都是非国家议会以及庸俗。
我请你不要再这样做了同样的
非常感谢
关于
阿米特

AMIT said...

Hi
pl note two quakes 6.3 and 6.1 at Bering sea on 30Th April 2010

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

Yes but you didn't predict anything that small did you?

The sun also came up both of those days too.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
tank you very much
Regards
Amit

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AMIT said...

hi
please see the datails of Atmosphere tide

Other Tides

Oceanic tides are not alone, there are also atmospheric tides (air is a liquid), and terrestrial or land tides that affect the Earth. Atmospheric tides are drowned out by the much more radical effects of weather and solar thermal tides. The Earth's crust, rises and falls as if it were breathing due to the Moon's pull. On average, terrestrial tides have an amplitude of 1.5 m at the equator and since they are only two hours behind the moon, they reinforce oceanic tides. In 1686, Isaac Newton became the first to give a mathematical explanation of tidal forces in the Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica. It is interesting to note there are several terms using the word “tide” that have nothing to do with tides. These include: tidal wave, rip tide, storm tide and
reference
http://marinebio.org/Oceans/currents-tides.asp