Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, July 08, 2012

Earthquake prediction for July 2012

hi
 PART A

 First date for July was already posted in my June prediction., and which was correct,Due to lack of time I am un able to concentrate on my calculations for rest of the adtes of July 2012.I am not a full time research guy,but find some time after full dyas work(8 am to 8 pm). I would love to work full time on the topic if supported by NZ Government
Nevertheless ,further dates are posted here with for your cross checking
1)16th July 2012-----------6.4

2)19th July 2012-----------6.2

3)22nd July 2012.---------6.3

4)29th July 2012----------6.8

 This time , I would like to check the dates (as per UTC), without any + or - one day window period

PART B

 Recent quake of June 2012 having magnitude 7.0(or 6.2? ) at NZ ,has made me think several questions?

USGS has stated that the quake was of magnitude 6.2, where as NZ media and other News has quoted it as having magnitude 7.0
Now the question is why such variations in magnitudes ? Which one is correct, or the other one is less accurate?
  My questions to elite seismologist are

How many,minimum, seismographs readings are required to arrive at accuracy of one decimal?
Are local (NZ) seismologist and Govt not doing proper homework before publishing magnitudes, if USGS is taken as ture and correct observer?

Can any ons or even NZ officials throw some light on this issues?

If ,we are to allow such huge differnece in observations, how are we (seismologist) asking dot accuracy from people like myself,who gives estimates well before an event?
 Any answers?

Amit

13 comments:

Juski said...

I'd trust Geonet NZ. Look at yesterday's Quake on North Island, near Lake Taupo:
USGS gives 5,0 as magnitude, Geonet NZ gives 5,7. The Quake was felt all over the North Island and on South Island down to Christchurch.

Can a 5,0 Quake be felt about 600 km away from epicenter?
I don't think so.

Compare with 5,3 in southern Honshu on Juli 3rd. Same depth, mag. 5,3. Felt about 300 km. Not more!

Greetings. Juski

Anonymous said...

Following Juski's comment, the mag 7.0 was felt across the whole of NZ so it was definately sizable, it even got people in christchurch talking and they're used to earthquakes having had thousands of them over the past couple of years

Anonymous said...

hi , i am a earthquake prediction researcher, it is interesting site, would you leave your email id to my adress , mine is geosen@gmail.com

Rajesh said...

Sir
1).Recent X class flare from sun 12-July-12 & last week 2 or 3 M class will have any effect on the atmosphere( upper layers of ionosphere )to effect the magnetosphere of earth which in turn will cause earth quake in polar region/ high latitude flout lines ???
2)Does sun's earth directed coronal mass ejection effects the weather pattern of the earth and causes low & hi pressure difference's to active storm ??
Thanks
Rajesh

Shumit said...

Just read your prediction of July earthquake. But u did not mention the locations. Can u predict earthquake in South Asia??

Anonymous said...

Large contrails, rib patterns and rainbow clouds here in Christchurch today.... I have a feeling there is a decent quake due next few days

AMIT said...

hi
6.3 quake at Kuril Island on 20th Morning ,as predicteded
However, It is in the window period and not on predictwed date
Amit

Jazzman said...

Hello all

Damage limitation springs to mind... Earthquakes have rocketed, mention the true M rating and suddenly you have mass hysteria when people realise that the world is being shook like a rattle.

75% of the worlds population live within 10 miles of the sea, flooding is another major factor... hence the Japan quake.

The largest quakes move earth's axis, again something that's not wanted published.

1000's of Birds falling from the sky, 100's of tons of fish dying, schools of dolphins/whales etc beaching them selves... the list goes on.

Religious books mention "End Days" etc etc... and what with 95% of the world population being religious, things could quickly get out of hand.

once you realise nothing is truly as it seems, all falls into place.

Have a nice day

http://tremor-activity.blogspot.co.uk/

Jazzman

Safety Products said...

its really very difficult to imagine about any type disaster am really get scared whenever i heard about such disaster news in nearby our area....

AMIT said...

hi
6.6 quake on 28th .20 utc and 29 th .6.0 local time ,atPNG
wartch date time and magnitude accuracy
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Due to lack of time I could not work out the details of the earthquake dates for August 2012.Neverthe less it will be done shortly
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
6.4 quake at Indonesia on 2nd Nov 2012 as predicted.
Amit

PuterMan said...

Amit, GeoNet use the ML scale for their quakes and I guess probably taken as a reading at P wave arrival. USGS, EMSC and GFZ Potsdam all have this quake at 6.3 Mw scale. If you look at the phase data from USGS you will see that the bulk of the early Mwp (Moment of magnitude calculated on P wave arrival) are Mwp 6.6

Me 6.6 is approximately the same as 7.0 ML so the difference between the readings is not as great as you are thinking it is.

You will probably not find the USGS phase data now but I keep a record of all quakes over Mag 6 and you can see the details for that quake here:

http://quakewatch.wordpress.com/2012/07/03/magnitude-6-2-off-the-west-coast-of-the-north-island-of-new-zealand-03-jul-12-b000awz5/