hi
Here are some of the probable dates for 6.5+ quakes for the month of November 2013
1)4th/5th November 2013...... 7.0 ( 12 Noon 4th to 12 noon 5th )
2)18th November 2013...........6.8
3)21st November 2013.......6.7......20.15 UTC ( window period only + or -12 Hrs)
For Sr number 1) and 2) window period is + or - one day
Magnitude window + or - 0.3
As a part of giving details of my personal diary following further specific details are given
please note ,places are not given here ,so only observe these dates and times as academic interest
Going one step further, I would like to give date and time with only + or - 6 Hrs window
1) 3rd Nov......12.50 UTC
2)6th ...............07.30
3)7th.................02.15
4)17th...............15.15
5)19th...............17.15
6)21st................20.15
Total six days and 12 Hrs each(+ or - 6 Hrs)
Hence ,effectively total 3 days(6*12=72 ie 3 days) of prediction
Amit
Here are some of the probable dates for 6.5+ quakes for the month of November 2013
1)4th/5th November 2013...... 7.0 ( 12 Noon 4th to 12 noon 5th )
2)18th November 2013...........6.8
3)21st November 2013.......6.7......20.15 UTC ( window period only + or -12 Hrs)
For Sr number 1) and 2) window period is + or - one day
Magnitude window + or - 0.3
As a part of giving details of my personal diary following further specific details are given
please note ,places are not given here ,so only observe these dates and times as academic interest
Going one step further, I would like to give date and time with only + or - 6 Hrs window
1) 3rd Nov......12.50 UTC
2)6th ...............07.30
3)7th.................02.15
4)17th...............15.15
5)19th...............17.15
6)21st................20.15
Total six days and 12 Hrs each(+ or - 6 Hrs)
Hence ,effectively total 3 days(6*12=72 ie 3 days) of prediction
Amit
43 comments:
Why did you not post my warning of a larger quake ?, the people would have at least been aware of the threat!
A then M7.2 and many killed/missing ....
Jazzman :/
Jazzman
Now a days I am getting rather unusual spams on my blog. Sometimes ,while working from my mobile phone,some of promotional comments were deleted. Not sure,I missed your comment also in the bunch
Amit
hi
since ,I have reduced(for this month) ,the time widow period I would like to add one more time slot for November 2013
12th November 2013....22.00 UTC
Window period + or - 6 Hrs
earthquakes and seismic activity will increase as we approach December 2013. Will be on peak in Nov and December 2013. Venus and Jupiter are closing in and are at at higher declination.
Moon will trigger quakes when at Perigee, Max Declination, Full Moon OR New Moon, and Moon aspects with Venus/Jupiter
Amit
Amit
Amit;
Why do you keep using indicators which have already been proven false?
Roger
Roger
Not. Until 5 out of 10 people beat my score with random dates ,tested for six consequtive months
Amit
Amit;
I'm working on a program to test your predictions against random dates for 7 years.
Roger
Roger
Keeping aside my prediction ,whether
1) Random dates can beat/reach theoretical odds ,at least for 50% time?
2)If tested with more random dates, whether,the results approaches to the theoretical odds?
Amit
Amit;
At your request I compared random predictions to expected frequencies.
The results are puzzling.
I looked at a 2100 day period for 6.5 mag quakes. You had 209 predictions for that time period and only 47 hits using a 3 day window.
Then I selected 209 random dates and counted the hits for them. I put the totals in an array, repeating the process 10,000 times.
The resulting distribution was skewed, starting out slow, peaking at the 45-50 hit mark and dropping off rapidly.
I can conclude from this that your results were typical for random selections and thus of no predictive value.
The puzzling part is that the expected number of hits was 64 based on the observed probability of 0.3057 with 209 prediction.
I don't know if the problem is with the Jones probability calculation, the random number generator or an error in my code but it doesn't matter that much.
You lose either way.
Roger
Roger
The question still remains
How many times ,out of 10,000 run trials of 209 dates, it reached 64 hits. If it is for very few times ,why they can not be termed as by chance.
If 64 hits is true odds,it should have been achieved more often
Amit
Roger
One more point
whether all my 209 dates are predictions for 6.5+ or 6+?
Amit
Amit;
That's the puzzling part. The Jones odds are 0.3057 for a mag 6.5+ quake in a 3 day window. Thus 209 dates should have 64 hits but instead they have 47 hits as did a majority of the random runs.
I'm working on it.
I used 6.5+ for all predictions because it gives a reasonable number of quakes. 6.0+ are too common.
Roger
Roger
To the best of my knowledge the earthquake prediction on this blog are as follows
Year.........6+.......6.5+
2013.........16.......11
2012.........25.......17
2011........13........20
2010........3........39
2009........4........21
2008.......1........05
2007.......-........05
2006.......2........2
........................
Total..... 64.......120
I may have missed one or two ,but can not be 200+ for 6.5+ quakes
Amit
Amit;
I said I considered all predictions to be for 6.5+ since all we are considering are date hits.
part of the problem is that when you make a prediction which overlaps days I have to count it as two predictions.
Another problem is that sometimes the same quake gets counted twice when predictions overlap.
A third problem is that this program is not counting hits correctly. You have 64 hits, not 47. But it counts the random hits the same way so it's no help for you.
I'm still working on it.
Roger
I said I considered all predictions to be for 6.5+ since all we are considering are date hits.
*ok,may be in all 120+64 ie 190 odd. but date hits for 6+ or 6.5+?
part of the problem is that when you make a prediction which overlaps days I have to count it as two predictions.
*yes. It is correct,
Another problem is that sometimes the same quake gets counted twice when predictions overlap.
*such cases would be very less
A third problem is that this program is not counting hits correctly. You have 64 hits, not 47. But it counts the random hits the same way so it's no help for you.
* I beg to differ. Unless the program is debugged and tested,it may not give correct value
I'm still working on it.
* Thanks
Amit
Amit;
Making progress.
I show your hits are 62 while expected is 64 so you're still below chance.
I'm still wrestling with random predictions. Sometimes these errors can be very subtle and hard to find.
Roger
Amit;
Ok, finally got the bugs out.
You got 68 hits with 64 expected. That makes you slightly better than chance but not enough to get excited about and nowhere near enough to pass my test.
The random tests perform pretty much the same. There's a tendency to have more below the peak than above but your score and the majority of the random scores are about the same.
Roger
Amit;
I've extended the random predictions to 100,000 cases. The highest value shifted to the left but there are still over 12,000 random cases better than you.
So you are better than chance but not enough better to claim any special ability.
Roger
Roger
so the hits are slowly increased from 47 to 68.
I would like to know out of 100,000 run
1) How many reached the theoretical odds
2)How many have crossed the odds?
3)How many are below odds?
You say only 12% theoretical cases,beats my predictions
Amit
Amit;
I'll email the results to you.
Yes, roughly 12% beat you and I would want to see only 1% do it before I would say you're on to something.
Remember, we're talking about picking dates out of a hat (so to speak) so really, none of them should beat you.
Roger
Roger
I beg to defer.
If my results are not better than odds, at least 50% ,out of the hat(random) dates should beat my results
Amit
Amit;
The problem is that we're dealing with only one case (your predictions) and almost any result can happen by chance.
Did happen, as the table I sent shows. Life is not as simple as you imagine.
The latest run shows expected to be 67 compared to your 68 hits. I had failed to allow for the larger timespan of the last test.
Roger
Dear AMIT,
I think there's another Roger,Today I email to Roger,but it seems he forgot all.
I dont konw if the Roger comment at your blog is the real Roger or not.
Yours Mike,
Be aware, Sunspot group AR11875 will shortly be directly earth facing, its a Gamma delta group .
22/10/2013 11.00 UK
Be safe
Jazzman :)
Well, AR11875 has now past central position, A M5.8 lowered to an M5.4, and an M5.5.
Shall see what happens when it reaches the moons position.
Sunspot AR11877 has produced the largest flare over the last few days, an M9.3 this morning at 00:21 (24/10/2013), it is now also just reaching sun centered.
AR 11873 has now lost power, still shadowing the moons movement.
be safe
Jazzman :)
Ok, the dates that dave posted and the resulting earthquakes
Full moon August 20, 2013 06:45:06 PM
21st/8 M6.2
Last quarter August 28, 2013 02:35:47 AM
New moon September 5, 2013 04:36:12 AM
4th/9 M6.5 and M6.5
First quarter September 12, 2013 10:09:52 AM
Full moon September 19, 2013 04:12:38 AM
Last quarter September 26, 2013 08:56:12 PM
25th/9 M7.1
New moon October 4, 2013 05:34:10 PM
4th/10 M6.4
First quarter October 11, 2013 04:03:54 PM
11th/10 M6.1
Full moon October 18, 2013 04:37:36 PM
19th/10th M6.5
6 out of nine predicted by the moon phases....
Still to come till start of january
Last quarter October 26, 2013 04:42:04 PM
New moon November 3, 2013 05:49:32 AM
First quarter November 9, 2013 10:58:47 PM
Full moon November 17, 2013 08:16:30 AM
Last quarter November 25, 2013 12:30:21 PM
New moon December 2, 2013 05:22:19 PM
First quarter December 9, 2013 08:13:09 AM
Full moon December 17, 2013 02:29:20 AM
Last quarter December 25, 2013 06:50:20 AM
this shows the moons position has a big role to play
Paul
AR11882 is making its way across the sun, released a X2.1 Flare today at 14:51, the M7.3 came at 17:10.... people can make their own judgments....
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events_archive/events_summary/2013/10/25/gev_20131025_1451/index.html
With the UK on the verge of being battered by the weather and the 2 typhoons near japan, the weather and quake situation is indeed rising as i mention when i spoke about comet ISON.
Over 340 4.5+ quakes in the last month...
Be safe
Jazzman :)
Use formilab,
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth
enter the time 18:10 UTC, select sun view and hit update and see where japan is on the earth viewer.... its just coming into view from the suns view.
Be safe
Jazzman :)
The moon will become influenced by sunspot AR11875 on the 27th, going into the 28th , be aware
Be safe
Jazzman :)
within the next 2 days 10\30\13 to 11\1\13 we will have a 4.5 earthquake in southern California.
see I told you we were going to have an earthquake within 3 days, and look Taiwan had earthquake 6.? I predicated that one, but I said southern California.
A M6.6, moons position was on sunspot AR11882.
Looks like heavier quakes in the offering for the 2nd/3rd AR 11884 and AR11885 along with AR11883 will be on the moons position after passing the center sun line.
AR11883 at present is Alpha
AR11884 at present is Beta Gamma Delta
AR11885 at present is BETA
Wouldn't be surprised to see the websites we use for the above info to go off line soon
Be aware
Jazzman :)
jazzman
Yes.Between 3rd and 6th November there could be atleast two quakes of 7 or more
Amit
hi
with Jupiter ,Sun and Venus approaching closer and at maximum declination, Moon will trigger more 6.5+ quakes in November and December
Amit
hi
For the first date ie 3rd November 2013 at 12.50 UTC,the two longitude is given herewith
16 degree west or 164 degree east
magnitude 7.0
window - magnitude + or -0.3
place + or -10 degree
time + or - 6 Hrs
Amit
Following on with the moons quarters etc
Last quarter October 26, 2013 04:42:04 PM
M7.1 Off the east coast of Honshu, Japan 2013-10-25 17:10:18 UTC+00:00 26.1 km
New moon November 3, 2013 05:49:32 AM
6.0 199km SSW of Palimbang, Philippines 2013-11-03 11:03:39 UTC+00:00 546.3 km
6.2 151km ESE of Neiafu, Tonga 2013-11-02 18:53:46 UTC+00:00 10.0 km
Wow, 8 out of 11 , that gotta be just under 80% prediction and its all in black and white .
Along with jazmans Moon/sunspot theory, nearly all the major quakes have been pinpointed.
Paul
Paul
This is not enough.I expect 6.5+ in 24 hrs.
Amit
yes, would agree, with sunspots 84, 89 and 87 either side of sun center and a large coronal hole just above center, jazman would say they are magnetically connected, also the moon will be sliding between 87,89 into tomorrow, then sun centered.
Paul
Want to get 100% hits?
Make a week long window centered on all 4 moon phases.
You can't miss.
Roger
Roger
I think we are serious and not kidding.!!!!!!!!!!!!
To day is Dipawali.. Hindu new year will begin from to nighr
HAPPY NEW YEAR
regards
Amit
The wasatch fault line will be the first to move. Followed a couple months later by the madrid and pacific coast will be broken. I feel it might happen in november of 2013.
hi
please note a powerful quake of 7.8 at Scotia sea on 17th Nov 2013 at 9.05 UTC and my prediction
17th at 15.15 Hrs of 6.5+ quake
watch the accuracy of date and time
Now ,how can anybody say ,this is just by chance?
Amit
Last night 22 of december by 8:35 pm was a strong but short earthquik felt in Kuwait.
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