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Monday, October 31, 2016

Earthquake Prediction for November -2016

hi
please find herewith the probable dates for 6+ quakes for the month of November 216


1)  7th November .......6.4

2)15th November ......6.6

3)21st November ......6.3

The time window is + or - one day

The probable date and time (+ or - 6 Hrs ) are also mentioned here with

1)7th November........20 UTC

2)14 th.....................15 UTC

3)17th....................12 UTC

4)22nd ...................4 UTC

Amit

125 comments:

AMIT said...

hi

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2016/07/11/Scientists-predict-massive-earthquake-building-beneath-Bangladesh/9231468261730/

please observe ,how seismologist predict (forecast ) major quake at Bangladesh . How on earth such predictions are useful ,other than making people anxious.
Please do not tell ,that, such study is useful in building constructions. Even if you built earthquake resistant buildings to day, they may not last 500 years.
Beauty of our laws is, such prediction do not come under offence,though what it is doing is making people anxious. if ,today I give all the three aspects of quake predictions ,namely magnitude, date and location , I may be prosecuted.
Even if the motive is to construct earthquake resistant buildings, the prediction should be handed over to Government confidentially and no need to give it publicity. The fact of the matter is seismologists want cheap publicity and do not bother the consequences of such
vague predictions.
on the other hand , I abide myself with the rukes and norms
Amit

Anonymous said...

Why do you have different dates?

AMIT said...

Anonymous
They are not different dates.The first one are having + or - one day window period ,where as the second one are having more specific narrow(+or - 6 hrs) window.
Thus it is 72 hrs window v/s 12 hrs window ie six times more specific
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit, yes, But the 17th does not fall inside any of your four 72 hour windows
Tom

AMIT said...

Yes. You are right. 17th is additional.In fact ,I could not accomodate it in my 3 day window.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I did a tally on the first 10 months of 2016 to see how you're doing.

There were no predictions in January so those quakes were not counted.

Feb to Oct had 100 qualifying quakes and your windows captured 37 of them.

21 of your 35 windows contained quakes so you were 60% accurate which sounds impressive, but those windows covered 105 days or 43% of the time so you should have caught 43% of the quakes rather than the 37% you did get.

Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Here is exactly the score card from January to October 2016. By the way ,January predictions were made (pl check)

1) Total days.....305
2)Total 6+ quakes ....112
3)Total quake dates (actual)....88

Now
1) total predicted dates are 37 (ie 37*3=111 days)...111/305=36.4%
2) total hit dates ........26..(ie 26/37=70.27%)
3) total quakes in predicted window.....47 ( ie 47/112=41.9% of quakes predicted )
Roger, you can see the hit percentage are more than 70
Amit

3)

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

We never seem to agree on totals.

I get
1) 36 predictions (36x3=118 days) 118/305=39%
2) total hit dates...24 (24/36=67%)
3) total quakes in windows ... 41 (41/113=36%)

Not far off.

So it shows that while your windows are better than expected the quakes captured are fewer than expected.

So far, any way...

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
If you want I can give details.
By the way,at first sight I find one error.
36 predictions give 108 days and not 118.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Aha! That's what happens with multiplying in my head!

But that worked against you. Now your odds match your performance even better.

Perfect chance results.

Yes, email details please.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
This shows ,every human being is prone to make errors.
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
An unusual 5+ quake occured at Oklohoma causing damages to structures,a date hit prediction.
Amit

AMIT said...

hi

Damage by Oklahoma quake

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/earthquake-causes-damage-central-oklahoma-n678811

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Too small to qualify as a hit and caused by fracking anyway.

Roger

AMIT said...

6.0 quake at Bio Bio Chile to day

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Not according to USGS

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
Moon is at Closest distance from Earth in some 69 Years.
https://in.news.yahoo.com/nasa

Watch the date and time for quake.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

3 in a row: Oct 16, Nov and Dec 14

If none of these include a mag 8 somewhere will you give up this idea?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
We already have 6.8 quake on 17th, which was highest in October 2016.
We will have higher magnitude quakes on 14th or 17th.
Quakes are not only dependent on Moon phases and distances,but yes, it is a major trigger.Magnitude also depend on location ie plate boundaries
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quakes on the 4th and 11th, both missed.

Score 0/2 quakes, 0/1 (so far) predictions

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
what is more important is missing a predicted date .
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

They both count against you. A valid method would capture all quakes.

Roger

Impsy said...

Just had 6.6 in NZ

Anonymous said...

6.6 in nz at 1202pm 14/11

AMIT said...

Hi/Roger
Watch accuracy of prediction.7.4 and 6.2 at south of NZ.to day ie 13th.
I expect atleast one 6.5+ in 48 hrs
(place not known)
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
If you want to check....
Moon at the time of NZ quake today ie 7.8 quake, on 13th Nov 2016, at 11.03 UTC at 42.7 degrees south and 173 degrees East.....is
Moon at the time of Quake is at 9.26 degrees North and 175 degrees East. The longitude ie 175 degrees East is important.Pl note ,the major quakes ( in next 48 hrs) will be,generally, at the Longitude location of the Moon. So keep track of Moon for 48 Hrs


http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html?day=13&month=11&year=2016&hour=11&min=03&sec=0&n=&ntxt=&earth=0

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Sorry but all 3 quakes are a miss for you.

Your window was for the 15th

I would expect aftershocks but those don't really count. I'll give you credit for them but only because your prediction was made long beforehand.

Your score is 0/5 quakes, 0/1 predictions as of today.

Roger

Unknown said...

Its the 14th today. The big earthquakes started just after midnight. Hit

Unknown said...

Nz has just been hit by a series of quakes. 13 nov 2016. From all over the both islands.

Tracey Everett said...

Quake hit today. Effecting the entire country.

Tracey Everett said...

Amit is correct. We had quakes in South Island affecting the entire country.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit is wrong.

His predictions are for UT, not local time.

Roger

TiffanyJ said...

Wow Armit! That is very accurate. I am in NZ and felt it 12.02am November 14th in Auckland. The South Island is effected the most severe. Are you able to tell us if the one coming on the 21st is to hit NZ also?

TiffanyJ said...
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Chrissie Small said...

280 aftershocks plus. 2 dead in South Island. More to come? Quite likely.

Amy Gray said...

Another hit bro, things got crazy last night.

Anonymous said...

Actually 12.05am on 14th Nov so Amit gave seriously accurate prediction.

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Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

What's up with all the deletions?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I am sorry
Something wrong with settings.
I will have to check
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Possibly due to deletion of e mail notifications from my mail box?
I am not sure.will find out
Sorry again
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Mag 7.0 today, counts against you

Miss.

Roger

Curiou said...

Amit, you mentioned the date 14 Dec. Is that a significant date for New Zealand?

AMIT said...

Curious
I predict the dates for the month in the first or second date of each month
Dec dates are not published yet
Amit

Anonymous said...

Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Earthquake Prediction for November -2016":

when is the next one ?

Anonymous said...

20-21 i think

Roger said...

Raghu Ragi;

No, I don't predict, I evaluate prediction methods.

I've duplicated Amit's method(s) on my computer and they don't work. He gets some hits but no more than chance would allow, on average.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
some how , I am trying to restore the deleted comments from my e mail notification
Let us see, how many I can restore

Amit

Jessica clark said...

I can't watch it for some reason

Jessica clark said...

Hi can you tell me when next earthquake will be for north island in nz please

Anonymous said...

Japan is on our fault line, I find these predictions very eerie.

Roger said...

Amit;

Yes another hit today

That makes it 3/8 quakes, 1/3 predictions

Still chance.

Roger

Roger said...

Amit;

Ooops! Another one on the 22nd.

That makes 4/9 quakes and 2/3 predictions correct.

Still coin toss results and any in the rest of the month will make it worse.

Roger

Curiou said...

Do you think we will get another big one in new zealand anytime soon?

Unknown said...

Roger. Can you have a crack at predicting next month's earthquakes to see how "chance" goes vs Amit.

Anonymous said...

Roger, can you throw some earthquake predictions out there for next month to show us all how "chance" or a "coin toss" goes vs Amit.

Roger Hunter said...

Sure;

3rd, 15th, 25th

3 day windows, mag 6+, same as Amit.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Are you talking of December 2016 prediction ?
I will be posting dates for December by Sunday evening
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, December random predictions as requested by Anonymous for comparison with yours.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Ok.
Thanks
Amit

Phillip Kennedy said...

If that's 3 days each side that covers a fair chunk of the month. Can you be more specific?

Phillip Kennedy said...

If that's 3 days each side that covers a fair chunk of the month. Can you be more specific?

Anonymous said...

I think 1 December is important day for newzeland.

AMIT said...

Philip
No. It does not cover three days on each side. It is one day on either side,ie total of three days. So ,if I have given four days, it covers total 12 days ie less than 50% of the month

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
I request Philip,Curiou and anonymous ,to give three random dates for December 2016,for 6+ quakes,with one one day window on both sides. This will ensure ,that out of three random dates
at least two are qual or better than my predictions
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
All.
please give four random dates for December 2016. As I am going to give four probable dates for December 2016.It will be easier to compare my dates with all other dates .Dates expected from Roger, Anonymous, Philip and Curiou

Amit

Curiou said...

Next full full moon with a perigee is 13th Dec. That would be my first guess

Phillip Kennedy said...

Ok mine are 4th 7th 24th 28th Dec. Haven't seen yours yet so will be interesting.

Phillip Kennedy said...

For the record, I was anonymous when I first asked the question to Roger about random predictions.

AMIT said...

Thanks
Curious,we want random dates, just pick up chits from thirty spread randomly,it has nothing to do with full Moon or Perigee
Jessica, I request you also to give four random dates. Four will be a good comparison.Roger I request one more date from you
Amit

Curiou said...

5th 10th 14th 17th

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok, make it 3,15,21 and 29

One random date is as good as another.

Roger

Raghu Ragi said...

Here are my dates:

2nd
12th
22nd
29th

P.S: All these dates are absolutely random and no research made.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Final scores for November

4/12 quakes (33%)

2/3 preds (66%)

9/30 days (30%)

Slightly better than expected.

Just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Another way to look at this is the ratio between observed and expected hits.

You were 7/9 which is slightly better than chance where others were 3 and 4 times better than expected - by chance.

Your method does not work. It produces it's results by chance.

Roger

Harrison Saunders said...

Excuse ME, Anonymous what proof do you have that it was 12:05 A.M.. It definitely was 12:02 A.M. Because I felt it and I remember the amazing Geonet website saying 7.8 12:02 A.M..

Harrison Saunders said...

The predictions are 73% wrong because Novemberladt year a 7.8 quake hit NZ and the November 2016 NZ predictions from you guys we're only 6.4 for 15th.