Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, November 03, 2013

My own physical evaluation of my 6.5 + earthquake predictions

hi
 Recently my earthquake predictions are being evaluated by Roger and Brain on the following forum


http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html

 It was concluded by the evaluates that, my predictions are below average and that if any one gives random dates,he can beat my predictions( as I am below statistical average.
  As I am little skeptical of the Jones method of evaluation being followed, I have physically checked all my predictions taking in to consideration my blog dates as well as  Rogers list
 
 Here are my findings
 From 19.11.2006 to 18.10.2013 ,all quakes predicted by me ,those are 6.5 or above are

1) Total Prediction 161 dates ( 6 to 6.4 are not considered)
2) Actual 6.5 and above quakes .......54 ( in + or - one day window and UTC time)
Now
3) average/ odds of 6.5+ quakes is ...0.3 ie 30% chances of it to occur on random date with window
period
4)Actual rate is 54/161= 0.335 ie 33.5% which is above average

 Again ,the method was not fine tuned in the first couple of years ie 2006 to 2009 the rate was less .
If we consider years 2010 to 2013 ,th results are

1) Total predictions.......113 dates
2) hits.........................47 ( with + or - one day window)

Thus result is 47/113=0.416 ie 41.6% which is well above average

 If Roger wishes ,the actual dates compared with his list of 232 predictions can be posted or e mailed

Amit

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